Quinnipiac SHOCK POLL in GA: Warnock +10

[wbrocks67]

Well, I guess you can't explain it away by saying its too D-leaning given Biden's 33-60 approval, which is likely not even that bad in reality.

But this does just go to show that once again, Biden's approval is not a proxy at *all* for support this year, and again, there are a lot of D-leaning groups who are saying they may disapprove of Biden but are still going to vote D.

Also the poll was taken mostly after Roe, June 23-27, which is of note.

Though Warnock outperforming Abrams by 10% is staggering. Though it would be quite something if Warnock was so strong that he dragged Abrams over the finish line. She should be the one you would think would most benefit from Roe, since GOV has the final decisions here in GA.

[wbrocks67]

None of this is particularly surprising though:

When it comes to Warnock's personal traits, voters say:

54 - 33 percent that he is honest;
56 - 34 percent that he has good leadership skills;
59 - 33 percent that he cares about average Georgians.
When it comes to Walker's personal traits, voters say:

43 - 39 percent that he is not honest;
43 - 37 percent that he does not have good leadership skills;
44 - 42 percent that he cares about average Georgians.

[wbrocks67]

Not sure how Biden can be at -27 and Walker is leading by +10. One of those things isn't true, unless a lot of Biden's disapproval comes from "he's not progressive enough".

also just look at 18-34, the key demo

Biden approval 26/65
Warnock winning 66/32

[wbrocks67]

Either the polling industry has collapsed to the point where it’s more accurate to ignore every poll or there is now a historic disconnect between presidential approval and voting intention.

There are definitely plenty of Biden disapproval/Warnock voters, but this poll has nearly 40% of Warnock’s voters in that category. Georgia isn’t the place where Dobbs should hurt the GOP very much either. Are they getting droves of Romney-Trump voters?

I mean this is clearly true to an extent, because not a single poll has shown Dems losing the GCB by 27 points.

Trump's approval ratings were similarly terrible, and Republicans "only" lost the congressional vote by 8%.

Well, you’d expect the Democrats to be losing the GCB by 5+ points given Biden’s approvals and for states to reflect that. Not a 10pt Dem swing from 2020 even as he is sitting at Trump numbers. He’s actually worse than Trump was at this time and almost monotonically losing approval as his presidency moves forward.

Presidential approval is a leading indicator, so maybe things will align as expected, but right now there’s something off.

that's the point though - it's not. it may have been in the past, especially when approval was directly linked, like in Trumps case, b/c his die-hards always say they supported him no matter what. Biden is a different beast though, because many Ds or D-leaners say they 'disapprove' for a multitude of reasons but will still be voting D this year. that's why prez approval is just not as big of a factor IMO this year

again, just look at the 18-34 #s i posted above. young people 'disapprove' of Biden for many reasons. but they don't disapprove enough to vote for Rs.

[wbrocks67]

Also of note here is that Warnock's favorability is 49/37, while Walker's is underwater at 37/42. Even if you even those out a bit, +12 and -5 are still very far away from each other.

[wbrocks67]

Either the polling industry has collapsed to the point where it’s more accurate to ignore every poll or there is now a historic disconnect between presidential approval and voting intention.

There are definitely plenty of Biden disapproval/Warnock voters, but this poll has nearly 40% of Warnock’s voters in that category. Georgia isn’t the place where Dobbs should hurt the GOP very much either. Are they getting droves of Romney-Trump voters?

I mean this is clearly true to an extent, because not a single poll has shown Dems losing the GCB by 27 points.

Trump's approval ratings were similarly terrible, and Republicans "only" lost the congressional vote by 8%.

Well, you’d expect the Democrats to be losing the GCB by 5+ points given Biden’s approvals and for states to reflect that. Not a 10pt Dem swing from 2020 even as he is sitting at Trump numbers. He’s actually worse than Trump was at this time and almost monotonically losing approval as his presidency moves forward.

Presidential approval is a leading indicator, so maybe things will align as expected, but right now there’s something off.

that's the point though - it's not. it may have been in the past, especially when approval was directly linked, like in Trumps case, b/c his die-hards always say they supported him no matter what. Biden is a different beast though, because many Ds or D-leaners say they 'disapprove' for a multitude of reasons but will still be voting D this year. that's why prez approval is just not as big of a factor IMO this year

again, just look at the 18-34 #s i posted above. young people 'disapprove' of Biden for many reasons. but they don't disapprove enough to vote for Rs.

Trump’s approval was a useful indicator. Trump’s approval was around -10 and the GCB was +8 for Dems. It’s not like Trump was -20 and the Republicans were winning swing states in a blowout. In fact the opposite happened.

I agree, Trump's was. His approval was, what, 45/53 in the 2018 exits, and the Ds were +7 or +8 in the GCB?

I think that was a specific context though. Trumps was, but Bidens for many other reasons, is not.

[wbrocks67]

Also of note here is that Warnock's favorability is 49/37, while Walker's is underwater at 37/42. Even if you even those out a bit, +12 and -5 are still very far away from each other.

Wbrock, honest question: do you truly believe Warnock is currently leading by 10 points?

No candidate is winning by more than 3 or 4 points in this election, IMO. In order for a Warnock+10 result, you’d need a massive number of Trump voters to be voting Warnock. That’s not happening

Fwiw, Greg bluestein says dem operatives are calling him and laughing about the poll.

Never said Warnock was up 10. But what this poll illustrates to me is just a lot of overall concepts of this election (Biden approval being detached from candidate performance, etc.)

Warnock won't win by 10, not even 5 likely. But I think it does show that Walker is a weak candidate and Warnock is a strong one.

Just like how it shows that Abrams is a good candidate as well, she has good #s on her own merit. But Kemp also has strengths as well, including 24% approval with black voters.

also nowhere in his tweets does it say that D operatives are "calling him laughing"

[wbrocks67]

Also of note here is that Warnock's favorability is 49/37, while Walker's is underwater at 37/42. Even if you even those out a bit, +12 and -5 are still very far away from each other.

Wbrock, honest question: do you truly believe Warnock is currently leading by 10 points?

No candidate is winning by more than 3 or 4 points in this election, IMO. In order for a Warnock+10 result, you’d need a massive number of Trump voters to be voting Warnock. That’s not happening

Fwiw, Greg bluestein says dem operatives are calling him and laughing about the poll.

He literally was trying to unskew the Q poll with Biden +13 in FL as being biased towards Republicans. What do you think?

Anyway, most university polls are complete bunk and should be disregarded entirely. There is no universe where Warnock wins by 10 and Whitmer wins by 37 but Republicans pick up seats such as RI-2 and are up 5 on the generic ballot.

You seem a little too obsessed with my posts and don't seem to be interested in actual nuanced conversation, so

(also no one believes Whitmer was up 37, that poll was clearly just about name rec and her being over 50, but again, that requires more nuance than you're clearly willing to give)

[wbrocks67]

Well, the averages are usually strong in GA, and this poll brings the 538 average to Warnock +0.2 right now, which is extremely believable.