Quinnipiac SHOCK POLL in GA: Warnock +10

[MT Treasurer]

Q is questionable, and I'm not only saying this when they come with a hilariously Republican friendly poll or Biden at 33% approval rating. Warnock may very well win, but it won't be by ten. Not even by five in a year like this. Tossup until proven otherwise.

Yes, I’m not sure how they do it, but Quinnipiac always manages to inflate the lead of particular candidates/one of the two big parties in these "shock polls."

If Warnock holds on in GA, I'd think Dems would be favored to hold the Senate. If Warnock wins by this margin (unlikely), I'd call it a certainty.

I disagree with this — I think Democrats are more likely to lose AZ/NV/PA (and obviously WI) than GA in the Senate. Agree on the second point, though.

[MT Treasurer]

Also worth noting that the polling average did not overerestimate Democrats in GA in 2016, 2018 or 2020, so maybe that’s something worth keeping an eye on. I can’t think of any other remotely competitive state in the country of which this has been true (usually Democrats were overestimated in at least one of those cycles).

Obviously these things can change (the same thing was true of NV/AZ/TX until it wasn’t), but it’s certainly something to consider. It’s also striking that Warnock is at 54% in a poll which has Biden at 60% disapproval.

I don’t think Democrats winning those two runoffs in 2021 was just an outlier because Trump depressed base turnout — that obviously mattered as well, but Republicans are basically on life support in this particular state. Other than CO, I don’t think there’s a state with a more dismal outlook for the GOP.