Quinnipiac SHOCK POLL in GA: Warnock +10

[President Johnson]

Q is questionable, and I'm not only saying this when they come with a hilariously Republican friendly poll or Biden at 33% approval rating. Warnock may very well win, but it won't be by ten. Not even by five in a year like this. Tossup until proven otherwise.

[Minnesota Mike]

Interesting that the last SUSA poll also had Warnock out performing Abrams by 10 points.

https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bca047b9-0028-4722-99cf-e8b225416609

[Illiniwek]

NUUUUUUUUUUT

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Not sure how Biden can be at -27 and Walker is leading by +10. One of those things isn't true, unless a lot of Biden's disapproval comes from "he's not progressive enough".

I suspect it's not so much "he's not progressive enough" so much as it is "things are bad in the country and I'm going to be mad at Biden until they get better, but also the Republicans are even worse"

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Very much doubt the margin, but Warnock has a real chance of holding on here.

[kwabbit]

Either the polling industry has collapsed to the point where it’s more accurate to ignore every poll or there is now a historic disconnect between presidential approval and voting intention.

There are definitely plenty of Biden disapproval/Warnock voters, but this poll has nearly 40% of Warnock’s voters in that category. Georgia isn’t the place where Dobbs should hurt the GOP very much either. Are they getting droves of Romney-Trump voters?

I mean this is clearly true to an extent, because not a single poll has shown Dems losing the GCB by 27 points.

Trump's approval ratings were similarly terrible, and Republicans "only" lost the congressional vote by 8%.

Well, you’d expect the Democrats to be losing the GCB by 5+ points given Biden’s approvals and for states to reflect that. Not a 10pt Dem swing from 2020 even as he is sitting at Trump numbers. He’s actually worse than Trump was at this time and almost monotonically losing approval as his presidency moves forward.

Presidential approval is a leading indicator, so maybe things will align as expected, but right now there’s something off.

that's the point though - it's not. it may have been in the past, especially when approval was directly linked, like in Trumps case, b/c his die-hards always say they supported him no matter what. Biden is a different beast though, because many Ds or D-leaners say they 'disapprove' for a multitude of reasons but will still be voting D this year. that's why prez approval is just not as big of a factor IMO this year

again, just look at the 18-34 #s i posted above. young people 'disapprove' of Biden for many reasons. but they don't disapprove enough to vote for Rs.

Trump’s approval was a useful indicator. Trump’s approval was around -10 and the GCB was +8 for Dems. It’s not like Trump was -20 and the Republicans were winning swing states in a blowout. In fact the opposite happened.

[wbrocks67]

Also of note here is that Warnock's favorability is 49/37, while Walker's is underwater at 37/42. Even if you even those out a bit, +12 and -5 are still very far away from each other.

[soundchaser]

If Warnock holds on in GA, I'd think Dems would be favored to hold the Senate. If Warnock wins by this margin (unlikely), I'd call it a certainty.

[wbrocks67]

Either the polling industry has collapsed to the point where it’s more accurate to ignore every poll or there is now a historic disconnect between presidential approval and voting intention.

There are definitely plenty of Biden disapproval/Warnock voters, but this poll has nearly 40% of Warnock’s voters in that category. Georgia isn’t the place where Dobbs should hurt the GOP very much either. Are they getting droves of Romney-Trump voters?

I mean this is clearly true to an extent, because not a single poll has shown Dems losing the GCB by 27 points.

Trump's approval ratings were similarly terrible, and Republicans "only" lost the congressional vote by 8%.

Well, you’d expect the Democrats to be losing the GCB by 5+ points given Biden’s approvals and for states to reflect that. Not a 10pt Dem swing from 2020 even as he is sitting at Trump numbers. He’s actually worse than Trump was at this time and almost monotonically losing approval as his presidency moves forward.

Presidential approval is a leading indicator, so maybe things will align as expected, but right now there’s something off.

that's the point though - it's not. it may have been in the past, especially when approval was directly linked, like in Trumps case, b/c his die-hards always say they supported him no matter what. Biden is a different beast though, because many Ds or D-leaners say they 'disapprove' for a multitude of reasons but will still be voting D this year. that's why prez approval is just not as big of a factor IMO this year

again, just look at the 18-34 #s i posted above. young people 'disapprove' of Biden for many reasons. but they don't disapprove enough to vote for Rs.

Trump’s approval was a useful indicator. Trump’s approval was around -10 and the GCB was +8 for Dems. It’s not like Trump was -20 and the Republicans were winning swing states in a blowout. In fact the opposite happened.

I agree, Trump's was. His approval was, what, 45/53 in the 2018 exits, and the Ds were +7 or +8 in the GCB?

I think that was a specific context though. Trumps was, but Bidens for many other reasons, is not.

[Matty]

Also of note here is that Warnock's favorability is 49/37, while Walker's is underwater at 37/42. Even if you even those out a bit, +12 and -5 are still very far away from each other.

Wbrock, honest question: do you truly believe Warnock is currently leading by 10 points?

No candidate is winning by more than 3 or 4 points in this election, IMO. In order for a Warnock+10 result, you’d need a massive number of Trump voters to be voting Warnock. That’s not happening

Fwiw, Greg bluestein says dem operatives are calling him and laughing about the poll.

[wbrocks67]

Also of note here is that Warnock's favorability is 49/37, while Walker's is underwater at 37/42. Even if you even those out a bit, +12 and -5 are still very far away from each other.

Wbrock, honest question: do you truly believe Warnock is currently leading by 10 points?

No candidate is winning by more than 3 or 4 points in this election, IMO. In order for a Warnock+10 result, you’d need a massive number of Trump voters to be voting Warnock. That’s not happening

Fwiw, Greg bluestein says dem operatives are calling him and laughing about the poll.

Never said Warnock was up 10. But what this poll illustrates to me is just a lot of overall concepts of this election (Biden approval being detached from candidate performance, etc.)

Warnock won't win by 10, not even 5 likely. But I think it does show that Walker is a weak candidate and Warnock is a strong one.

Just like how it shows that Abrams is a good candidate as well, she has good #s on her own merit. But Kemp also has strengths as well, including 24% approval with black voters.

also nowhere in his tweets does it say that D operatives are "calling him laughing"

[Horus]

No serious person thinks Warnock is up by ten.

But he is, at this moment, favored. This is not the only poll to show him leading outside the MoE. Candidate quality still matters.

[Politician]

Also of note here is that Warnock's favorability is 49/37, while Walker's is underwater at 37/42. Even if you even those out a bit, +12 and -5 are still very far away from each other.

Wbrock, honest question: do you truly believe Warnock is currently leading by 10 points?

No candidate is winning by more than 3 or 4 points in this election, IMO. In order for a Warnock+10 result, you’d need a massive number of Trump voters to be voting Warnock. That’s not happening

Fwiw, Greg bluestein says dem operatives are calling him and laughing about the poll.

He literally was trying to unskew the Q poll with Biden +13 in FL as being biased towards Republicans. What do you think?

Anyway, most university polls are complete bunk and should be disregarded entirely. There is no universe where Warnock wins by 10 and Whitmer wins by 37 but Republicans pick up seats such as RI-2 and are up 5 on the generic ballot.

[Matty]

No serious person thinks Warnock is up by ten.

But he is, at this moment, favored. This is not the only poll to show him leading outside the MoE. Candidate quality still matters.

This is a fair post

To me, this poll reminds me of the youngkin fox poll

[wbrocks67]

Also of note here is that Warnock's favorability is 49/37, while Walker's is underwater at 37/42. Even if you even those out a bit, +12 and -5 are still very far away from each other.

Wbrock, honest question: do you truly believe Warnock is currently leading by 10 points?

No candidate is winning by more than 3 or 4 points in this election, IMO. In order for a Warnock+10 result, you’d need a massive number of Trump voters to be voting Warnock. That’s not happening

Fwiw, Greg bluestein says dem operatives are calling him and laughing about the poll.

He literally was trying to unskew the Q poll with Biden +13 in FL as being biased towards Republicans. What do you think?

Anyway, most university polls are complete bunk and should be disregarded entirely. There is no universe where Warnock wins by 10 and Whitmer wins by 37 but Republicans pick up seats such as RI-2 and are up 5 on the generic ballot.

You seem a little too obsessed with my posts and don't seem to be interested in actual nuanced conversation, so

(also no one believes Whitmer was up 37, that poll was clearly just about name rec and her being over 50, but again, that requires more nuance than you're clearly willing to give)

[Alben Barkley]

The problem is voters are split on which of Walker's multiple personalities to vote for.

[Politician]

Also of note here is that Warnock's favorability is 49/37, while Walker's is underwater at 37/42. Even if you even those out a bit, +12 and -5 are still very far away from each other.

Wbrock, honest question: do you truly believe Warnock is currently leading by 10 points?

No candidate is winning by more than 3 or 4 points in this election, IMO. In order for a Warnock+10 result, you’d need a massive number of Trump voters to be voting Warnock. That’s not happening

Fwiw, Greg bluestein says dem operatives are calling him and laughing about the poll.

He literally was trying to unskew the Q poll with Biden +13 in FL as being biased towards Republicans. What do you think?

Anyway, most university polls are complete bunk and should be disregarded entirely. There is no universe where Warnock wins by 10 and Whitmer wins by 37 but Republicans pick up seats such as RI-2 and are up 5 on the generic ballot.

You seem a little too obsessed with my posts and don't seem to be interested in actual nuanced conversation, so

(also no one believes Whitmer was up 37, that poll was clearly just about name rec and her being over 50, but again, that requires more nuance than you're clearly willing to give)

I mean, if you just pick Democrats to win every competitive race, you're going to get some right for sure.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Just one data point and we need further confirmation, but big if true and glorious news even if Warnock’s margin is obviously going to be smaller.

Side note: I forget who, but someone said Georgia is not a state where Dobbs is likely to hurt Republicans.  I strongly disagree with that; it’ll hurt in the Atlanta suburbs/greater metro area.  That said, it looks like at least some of this is being fueled by Walker being an awful candidate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not gonna be smy Red wave, it's a blue wave Rs blocked BBB

[MT Treasurer]

Q is questionable, and I'm not only saying this when they come with a hilariously Republican friendly poll or Biden at 33% approval rating. Warnock may very well win, but it won't be by ten. Not even by five in a year like this. Tossup until proven otherwise.

Yes, I’m not sure how they do it, but Quinnipiac always manages to inflate the lead of particular candidates/one of the two big parties in these "shock polls."

If Warnock holds on in GA, I'd think Dems would be favored to hold the Senate. If Warnock wins by this margin (unlikely), I'd call it a certainty.

I disagree with this — I think Democrats are more likely to lose AZ/NV/PA (and obviously WI) than GA in the Senate. Agree on the second point, though.

[Gracile]

This is obviously a major outlier, but I have long felt Georgia was the one competitive state that could buck the wave at the Senate level.

[President Johnson]

Q is questionable, and I'm not only saying this when they come with a hilariously Republican friendly poll or Biden at 33% approval rating. Warnock may very well win, but it won't be by ten. Not even by five in a year like this. Tossup until proven otherwise.

Yes, I’m not sure how they do it, but Quinnipiac always manages to inflate the lead of a certain candidate/party in these "shock polls."

If Warnock holds on in GA, I'd think Dems would be favored to hold the Senate. If Warnock wins by this margin (unlikely), I'd call it a certainty.

I disagree with this — I think Democrats are more likely to lose AZ/NV/PA (and obviously WI) than GA in the Senate. Agree on the second point, though.

However, Republicans apparently nominated a weak candidate in Pennsylvania with equally poor favorables and isn't their frontrunner in Arizona some guy who wants to privatize Social Security? Kelly and Fetterman are strong candidates, though they can still lose easily in a political climate not favorable.

[KaiserDave]

The polling industry, especially Q U is a joke.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The polling industry, especially Q U is a joke.

Stop being a DOOMER, if we net the H and the S give us DC Statehood

[KaiserDave]

The polling industry, especially Q U is a joke.

Stop being a DOOMER, if we net the H and the S give us DC Statehood

I am called Doomer Dave by many.