Does anyone else see Trump beating DeSantis for the nomination as Biden's last hope?

[Barack Oganja]

Low approval ratings, lack of a passionate base, an economy voters are unhappy with. Presidents don't win re-election with those circumstances. And yes, the economy can get better before 2024, but it can also get worse, especially with the Fed working to reign in demand. DeSantis vs Biden to me looks like a 1992 redux. I don't see Biden having the agility to out maneuver DeSantis especially if inflation is still high or we're in a recession. Now Trump? Much more of a wild card, stained record, guaranteed to say and do stupid things during a campaign. If Biden runs vs DeSantis the election is a reflection on the last 4 years, Biden vs Trump is going to be a relitigation of the Trump years. Trump will spend half his time talking about the election being stolen, not what voters want to hear. I have a much much harder time seeing Biden beat DeSantis than Trump, anyone else agree?

[Sir Mohamed]

No, other GOP candidates didn't prove their national electability so far. Trump won once and came close a 2nd time despite a disastrous term.

That said, Biden can easily recover once he starts running for reelection. All previous presidents looked more vulnerable in the middle of their 1st terms than they actually ended up being. Let's not pretend Biden is DOA, even if midterms end up in a sound defeat. Especially if the GOP overreaches subsequently, it can help Biden as well.

[MABA 2020]

Yes I would say Bidens only hope is if Trump is the nominee, most other Republicans would probably destroy Biden in 2024.

However even then a Biden-Trump rematch is essentially a toss up.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think Trump vs. Biden is a toss-up but DeSantis would be definitely the favorite. More importantly Trump would stifle a lot of downballlot gains they would have gotten under DeSantis.

[MiddleRoad]

No, other GOP candidates didn't prove their national electability so far. Trump won once and came close a 2nd time despite a disastrous term.

That said, Biden can easily recover once he starts running for reelection. All previous presidents looked more vulnerable in the middle of their 1st terms than they actually ended up being. Let's not pretend Biden is DOA, even if midterms end up in a sound defeat. Especially if the GOP overreaches subsequently, it can help Biden as well.

2023 and the first 2/3rds of 2024 will decide everything re Biden

If we were talking in 1994 and the first half of 1995 prior to Oklahoma City, it’d seem pretty certain that Clinton would be a one term President. By the end of 1995, it was pretty clear he’d win in 1996 unless the nominee was Powell and once Powell dropped out of the race in November 1995, the wave was paved for Clinton’s second term.

If Election Day was held today, Biden would lose to Trump or DeSantis handily

Let’s see how 2023 and Jan-August 2024 go

[Mr. Smith]

Not at all.

DeSantis would be a better pick to defeat than Trump again, who unfortunately tends to overperform expectations a  lot.

[BlueSwan]

No.

Depends on how DeSantis becomes the nominee. If Trumps and DeSantis somehow beats him (unlikely), then it is hard to see Trump not going full lying-Ted on him, which could well hurt GQP turnout quite a bit.

If Trump doesn't run and perhaps even endorses DeSantis, then that could be a problem. But we still need to remember that DeSantis is a soulless robot with no charisma whatsoever who is going all in on culture wars. At this point he is mostly just hyped up by media and could well burn out quite badly.

[John Dule]

The lesson will never be learned.