Rate CO-SEN (Bennet vs O'Dea)

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I think Tilt D.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It’s Safe D after Dobbs.

[wesmoorenerd]

Lmao lay off the hopium, no one cares that O'Dea is a nice guy FF moderate. This is a Likely D race at the absolute worst, arguably Safe D.

[MT Treasurer]

Lmao, you people are really going all in on this "pre-/post-Dobbs" thing as your last anchor, huh?

Likely D "before Dobbs" and Likely D "after Dobbs."

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I think Tilt D.

why?

[smoltchanov]

Likely D. But rare (these days) case, where Republicans nominated a candidate who can be respected..

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe D all the blue states are D

[Minnesota Mike]

Likely D only because my bar to rate something safe is really high.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I guess it's still likely D until we see some polling but Bennet is definitely less safe than a month or two ago.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Lean D. It’s hard to argue Dems aren’t favored but to say it’s more or less a lock for them is short sighted.

Yes Biden had a very impressive 13.5 point win in Colorado in 2020. However, on that same ballot Looper only won by 9 and it’s yet to be seen how “normal” or “above average” Biden’s performance may have been. If you believe a generic Dem would’ve won CO by ~10 points with the 2020 electorate, a swing in the electorate of just 6 points right could make Ds start to get worried.

I also want to point out Colorado is a highly educated state, meaning moderating politically will tend to be more fruitful. Will O’Dea ultimately do a good enough job at not mess things up? We’ll see. He’s a relative newcomer who hasn’t been tested on a campaign trail so it’s really up to him how well or poorly he does.

The main issue I see for Rs in Colorado is that Denver and Boulder are both very reliable at turning out and provide Ds a very high floor in the state that has only been getting higher. An R these days really has to run the table around the state, including the greater Denver suburbs, rural communities, Mesa, Hispanic Communities, farm communities, and so on.

For now though CO is a D leaning state and Bennet is innofensive as an incumbent, plus Polis seems to be running strong. Could be Rs one last realistic shot at a CO seat for a while.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Lean D closer to Likely than Tossup and think most likely this will be sort of like how WA-2010 was in which the Republicans come close in a state that rapidly trended way from them the previous decade but still lose by 4-5 points

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Safe D, although there is like a 1/3 chance that O’Dea keeps it to a mid-single digit loss.  However, even that seems doubtful post-Dobbs.

[Zenobiyl]

Lean D

[Lambsbread]

Likely D

[morgieb]

Ehhh, probably Likely D. O'Dea does seem a strong recruit but Colorado feels like it's trending too far left for the Dems to be that endangered unless the 2022 is pretty ghastly. Bennett seems a solid enough incumbent too.

[wbrocks67]

Lmao, you people are really going all in on this "pre-/post-Dobbs" thing as your last anchor, huh?

Likely D "before Dobbs" and Likely D "after Dobbs."

I mean, you're on a political discussion board. You honestly don't think a monumentous decision like this won't have an effect on political races? Come on now.

[YE]

Lean D just because of how horrid the national climate is for Democrats right now and that for once an actual good candidate is running on the right.

[wbrocks67]

Lean D just because of how horrid the national climate is for Democrats right now and that for once an actual good candidate is running on the right.

Not sure people can really say the environment is "horrid" for Democrats anymore. It's bad, but Dobbs changes a lot of things.

[Politician]

Likely D, closer to Safe than Lean. Trends in CO are REALLY bad for Republicans.

[Sir Mohamed]

Likely D.

Closer to Safe than Lean. CO has drifted away from the GOP, just like a reverse IA.

That said, I expect Polis to do a little better than Bennet.

[Mr.Phips]

Will be a three to five point win for Bennet in the end.

[SnowLabrador]

Will be a three to five point win for Bennet in the end.

That's what I think too. Lean D.

[Alben Barkley]

Safe D. Bennet won even in 2010 when CO was a much less blue state. There’s no realistic chance he loses. May be more “lean-likely margin” but the chances he actually loses are essentially 0.

[here2view]

Likely D, closer to Safe than Lean. Colorado's 2020 swing to the left was the second highest (only 0.41% behind Vermont.)

If this was 10 or even 5 years ago my answer would be different.

[coloradocowboi]

Lmao lay off the hopium, no one cares that O'Dea is a nice guy FF moderate. This is a Likely D race at the absolute worst, arguably Safe D.

Yeah, who even is Joe O'Dea? Cory Gardner was an incumbent US Senator and lost by 9. He ran in a much better year for Repubs as a popular US Rep and won by like 1.5. Worst case scenario here is Bennet has another darryl glenn situation - which is possible because michael bennet is about as charismatic as a carrot and talks like muppet on ketamine. But even compared to that, seriously, who even is joe odea?