WA-SEN (Tarrance Group/Smiley internal): Murray +5

[wbrocks67]

Murray (D) 48%
Smiley (R) 43%

6/14-6/19 by Tarrance Group (B+)
600 LV
NOTE: partisan (R) poll

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1541775508769312769

[wbrocks67]

Smiley's internal also has Murray's approval at 48/40:

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/28/democrats-getting-the-jitters-in-washington-and-colorado-00042679

[wbrocks67]

anyone mentioning "pre-Dobbs" or "post-Dobbs" should not be taken seriously

I agree it won't massively change the landscape, but surely it could have some impact to the Ds favor, no?
How can you justify such a complete no-exceptions rule on something with great potential to shape the political narrative? Especially as those who might use those terms might have some keen insights on other issues, at the very least?

I'm not saying it won't have an impact, I'm saying dividing the entire election into two eras of "pre-Dobbs" and "post-Dobbs" is overestimating the impact it'll make.

i mean, not really. given the closeness that especially many of these swing states will be, it's very pertinent to throw it into those categories considering this decision could make the difference in a lot of these 1-2 pt races

[wbrocks67]

anyone mentioning "pre-Dobbs" or "post-Dobbs" should not be taken seriously

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nebraska%27s_1st_congressional_district

Seriously, I feel like we've just memory holed that special after two days, when two days after Flores won everyone was changing their November ratings for TX-34 to Tilt R. It's four months to election day, so I doubt it was just a random fluke. Is it really so inconceivable that Dobbs improved the environment for Democrats? If so, what explains that performance?

It really is funny how the pundits went right away to rethinking their ratings for TX-34 but there hasn't been any eyes batted for NE-01 or any similar districts, or really any type of solid analysis of what happened compared to the barage of pieces that TX-34 caused.