WA-SEN (Tarrance Group/Smiley internal): Murray +5
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Author Topic: WA-SEN (Tarrance Group/Smiley internal): Murray +5  (Read 1131 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: June 28, 2022, 08:34:41 AM »

Murray (D) 48%
Smiley (R) 43%

6/14-6/19 by Tarrance Group (B+)
600 LV
NOTE: partisan (R) poll

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1541775508769312769
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #1 on: June 28, 2022, 09:53:31 AM »

I see slight upset potential here.
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soundchaser
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« Reply #2 on: June 28, 2022, 10:00:03 AM »


Down 5 in an internal. Come on, man.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #3 on: June 28, 2022, 10:02:19 AM »

Smiley's internal also has Murray's approval at 48/40:

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/28/democrats-getting-the-jitters-in-washington-and-colorado-00042679
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #4 on: June 28, 2022, 10:05:28 AM »

The GOP candidate may actually receive 43% of the vote. Safe D.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #5 on: June 28, 2022, 10:31:42 AM »
« Edited: June 28, 2022, 12:31:03 PM by UncleSam »

This actually wouldn’t have been that crazy of a take pre-Dobbs. Now there’s zero chance of an upset, I expect Murray to win by 10-15 or so.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: June 28, 2022, 10:51:16 AM »

These polls are so goofy they have D's plus 7 and Traggy have Rs plus 9 49/40, I don't believe any of them because we just have to go back to the 303 blue wall anyways

Polls are for poll watch anyways nothing else and Murray isn't losing but she might win by six not 20
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Senator Incitatus
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« Reply #7 on: June 28, 2022, 12:45:37 PM »


In June.

Anyway, I think this will turn out like NJ 2018, with enough adjustment for environment to make this a bit closer.
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Xing
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« Reply #8 on: June 29, 2022, 11:56:21 PM »

Pre-Dobbs: Safe D
Post-Dobbs: Safe D
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Shaula🏳️‍⚧️
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« Reply #9 on: June 30, 2022, 12:48:57 AM »

anyone mentioning "pre-Dobbs" or "post-Dobbs" should not be taken seriously
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #10 on: June 30, 2022, 01:05:45 AM »

anyone mentioning "pre-Dobbs" or "post-Dobbs" should not be taken seriously
I agree it won't massively change the landscape, but surely it could have some impact to the Ds favor, no?
How can you justify such a complete no-exceptions rule on something with great potential to shape the political narrative? Especially as those who might use those terms might have some keen insights on other issues, at the very least?
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Shaula🏳️‍⚧️
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« Reply #11 on: June 30, 2022, 01:51:06 AM »

anyone mentioning "pre-Dobbs" or "post-Dobbs" should not be taken seriously
I agree it won't massively change the landscape, but surely it could have some impact to the Ds favor, no?
How can you justify such a complete no-exceptions rule on something with great potential to shape the political narrative? Especially as those who might use those terms might have some keen insights on other issues, at the very least?
I'm not saying it won't have an impact, I'm saying dividing the entire election into two eras of "pre-Dobbs" and "post-Dobbs" is overestimating the impact it'll make.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #12 on: June 30, 2022, 02:00:28 AM »

anyone mentioning "pre-Dobbs" or "post-Dobbs" should not be taken seriously
I agree it won't massively change the landscape, but surely it could have some impact to the Ds favor, no?
How can you justify such a complete no-exceptions rule on something with great potential to shape the political narrative? Especially as those who might use those terms might have some keen insights on other issues, at the very least?
I'm not saying it won't have an impact, I'm saying dividing the entire election into two eras of "pre-Dobbs" and "post-Dobbs" is overestimating the impact it'll make.
Ok.
That is milder than I read your statement as saying, and much more defendable.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #13 on: June 30, 2022, 08:01:37 AM »

anyone mentioning "pre-Dobbs" or "post-Dobbs" should not be taken seriously
I agree it won't massively change the landscape, but surely it could have some impact to the Ds favor, no?
How can you justify such a complete no-exceptions rule on something with great potential to shape the political narrative? Especially as those who might use those terms might have some keen insights on other issues, at the very least?
I'm not saying it won't have an impact, I'm saying dividing the entire election into two eras of "pre-Dobbs" and "post-Dobbs" is overestimating the impact it'll make.

i mean, not really. given the closeness that especially many of these swing states will be, it's very pertinent to throw it into those categories considering this decision could make the difference in a lot of these 1-2 pt races
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GALeftist
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« Reply #14 on: June 30, 2022, 11:11:38 AM »

anyone mentioning "pre-Dobbs" or "post-Dobbs" should not be taken seriously

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nebraska%27s_1st_congressional_district

Seriously, I feel like we've just memory holed that special after two days, when two days after Flores won everyone was changing their November ratings for TX-34 to Tilt R. It's four months to election day, so I doubt it was just a random fluke. Is it really so inconceivable that Dobbs improved the environment for Democrats? If so, what explains that performance?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #15 on: June 30, 2022, 11:22:38 AM »

anyone mentioning "pre-Dobbs" or "post-Dobbs" should not be taken seriously

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nebraska%27s_1st_congressional_district

Seriously, I feel like we've just memory holed that special after two days, when two days after Flores won everyone was changing their November ratings for TX-34 to Tilt R. It's four months to election day, so I doubt it was just a random fluke. Is it really so inconceivable that Dobbs improved the environment for Democrats? If so, what explains that performance?

It really is funny how the pundits went right away to rethinking their ratings for TX-34 but there hasn't been any eyes batted for NE-01 or any similar districts, or really any type of solid analysis of what happened compared to the barage of pieces that TX-34 caused.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #16 on: June 30, 2022, 11:24:07 AM »

Murray isn't losing anyways
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #17 on: June 30, 2022, 01:53:30 PM »

It's Tarrance Group, these guys are hacks. I used to work for these guys.
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Shaula🏳️‍⚧️
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« Reply #18 on: June 30, 2022, 05:35:15 PM »

anyone mentioning "pre-Dobbs" or "post-Dobbs" should not be taken seriously

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nebraska%27s_1st_congressional_district

Seriously, I feel like we've just memory holed that special after two days, when two days after Flores won everyone was changing their November ratings for TX-34 to Tilt R. It's four months to election day, so I doubt it was just a random fluke. Is it really so inconceivable that Dobbs improved the environment for Democrats? If so, what explains that performance?
If a rep resigns due to scandal, that party usually dramatically underperforms in the ensuing special election.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #19 on: June 30, 2022, 10:13:53 PM »

anyone mentioning "pre-Dobbs" or "post-Dobbs" should not be taken seriously

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nebraska%27s_1st_congressional_district

Seriously, I feel like we've just memory holed that special after two days, when two days after Flores won everyone was changing their November ratings for TX-34 to Tilt R. It's four months to election day, so I doubt it was just a random fluke. Is it really so inconceivable that Dobbs improved the environment for Democrats? If so, what explains that performance?
If a rep resigns due to scandal, that party usually dramatically underperforms in the ensuing special election.

This happened a lot in the Trump administration, but it's difficult to tell whether it was more due to the environment or the scandal. Here are special elections due to scandal-related resignation with the opposite party in the White House:

CA-25 2020: This was probably a factor, although Garcia has continued to be successful.
MI-13 2018: Uncontested.
IL-18 2015: LaHood (R) actually outperformed.
NY-11 2015: Donovan (R) also outperformed.
FL-19 2014: Clawson (R) outperformed.

Excluded stuff before this because it's annoying to find presidential results by CD.

Pretty mixed record overall. I don't doubt that the scandal had a lot to do with the result in this election but imo I do not think that that was the only factor which made this so close.
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hyouzel the predictor
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« Reply #20 on: July 01, 2022, 03:26:17 PM »

Oh, Smiley at 43? sounds about right
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