Suffolk - RI-02 - Fung +6

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1541424652194660355?t=mrxdRlyJAUVx9Ot3da-...

[wbrocks67]

Not sure it's a red flag as much considering in each of the match-ups, there is 17-22% undecided. I assume Fung is consolidating most of his audience while Dems are still splintered a bit.

Would like to see how it looks once the primary is over.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Yep, definitely not a red flag that a republican is leading..


in a Biden +14 district.

[wbrocks67]

Yep, definitely not a red flag that a republican is leading..


in a Biden +14 district.

There's a lot of context here - Fung is the clear leader in his primary. Magaziner is clearly barely known and undecided is closer to 50% in the primary than it is to Magaziner's vote. Not just that, but nearly 20% undecided in a Biden +14 district?

I'm not saying this is a great poll for Ds but there's a lot going on here where it's not like this is a safe and solid lead for Fung. He clearly consolidated his voters since he has 43-45% in every match-up. Ds/Indies clearly not.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Yep, definitely not a red flag that a republican is leading..


in a Biden +14 district.

There's a lot of context here - Fung is the clear leader in his primary. Magaziner is clearly barely known and undecided is closer to 50% in the primary than it is to Magaziner's vote. Not just that, but nearly 20% undecided in a Biden +14 district?

I'm not saying this is a great poll for Ds but there's a lot going on here where it's not like this is a safe and solid lead for Fung. He clearly consolidated his voters since he has 43-45% in every match-up. Ds/Indies clearly not.

It's not a solid lead.. but he's in good shape given he's already breaking 45% (highest I've seen a republican in this particular district) with as you say, 20% undecided.. it's unlikely that every undecided voter breaks democrat and you would expect Fung to pick up a reasonable chunk of those voters to keep him competitive.

[Sir Mohamed]

May or may not flip, though I agree that this is a red flag for Dems. Just confirms what we already know: The House is Safe R at this point.

If it flips, however, Fung will be low hanging fruit in 2024.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

May or may not flip, though I agree that this is a red flag for Dems. Just confirms what we already know: The House is Safe R at this point.

If it flips, however, Fung will be low hanging fruit in 2024.

It's gonna be lag time between Dobbs and the polls wait til August or September polling before the polls get pro D this is stilll July, after Labor Day is when polls matter


The OP thinks I am a troll but I can't update my prediction map when polls close on EDay and I am D anyways not an R because Rs protect the rich and athletes has 80/90 of the wealth and Oprah and Trump and Koch Bros and Hollywood, NRAown 2% and we own 8% of remaining Wealth

[DrScholl]

False positive. 45% is Fung's ceiling (in a very unusual best case scenario). And as the tweet mentioned it was taken before the Supreme Court decision and Republican numbers will undoubted collapse just like they did after the leak of the brief.

[Gracile]

The final result will likely be more Democratic than this poll indicates, but Democrats should be worried that a district like this is polling competitively.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

False positive. 45% is Fung's ceiling (in a very unusual best case scenario). And as the tweet mentioned it was taken before the Supreme Court decision and Republican numbers will undoubted collapse just like they did after the leak of the brief.

On the basis of what ?

[Senator Incitatus]

Very strong candidate in Fung in a region that still does plenty of ticket-splitting. Wouldn't expect a national swing of 20 points but this is not unrealistic.

May or may not flip, though I agree that this is a red flag for Dems. Just confirms what we already know: The House is Safe R at this point.

If it flips, however, Fung will be low hanging fruit in 2024.

My guess is Fung would use this as a springboard to run for Governor again.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Very strong candidate in Fung in a region that still does plenty of ticket-splitting. Wouldn't expect a national swing of 20 points but this is not unrealistic.

May or may not flip, though I agree that this is a red flag for Dems. Just confirms what we already know: The House is Safe R at this point.

If it flips, however, Fung will be low hanging fruit in 2024.

My guess is Fung would use this as a springboard to run for Governor again.

Lol it's not even Labor Day yet and Rs are thinking they are assured the MAJORITY, Lol

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Press X to doubt

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

ftp://

Very strong candidate in Fung in a region that still does plenty of ticket-splitting. Wouldn't expect a national swing of 20 points but this is not unrealistic.

May or may not flip, though I agree that this is a red flag for Dems. Just confirms what we already know: The House is Safe R at this point.

If it flips, however, Fung will be low hanging fruit in 2024.

My guess is Fung would use this as a springboard to run for Governor again.

What would the map of a uniform twenty-point House swing (to the R's) even look like?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

If Fung wins he can become a Fitzpatrick-type who can consistently win a blue seat by being a moderate.

[wesmoorenerd]

If Fung wins he can become a Fitzpatrick-type who can consistently win a blue seat by being a moderate.

RI-02 is significantly bluer than PA-01. PA-01 was Biden +5, RI-02 was Biden +14. That's a near impossible seat to get entrenched in.

[DrScholl]

False positive. 45% is Fung's ceiling (in a very unusual best case scenario). And as the tweet mentioned it was taken before the Supreme Court decision and Republican numbers will undoubted collapse just like they did after the leak of the brief.

On the basis of what ?

Based on the fact it is a +14 Biden district and heavy polarization limits crossover support. 45% is probably too generous.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

False positive. 45% is Fung's ceiling (in a very unusual best case scenario). And as the tweet mentioned it was taken before the Supreme Court decision and Republican numbers will undoubted collapse just like they did after the leak of the brief.

On the basis of what ?

Based on the fact it is a +14 Biden district and heavy polarization limits crossover support. 45% is probably too generous.

Trump, of all people, literally got 44% in the same district (2016).. in this environment, how exactly can 45% for Fung he regarded as generous.

[UncleSam]

If Fung wins he can become a Fitzpatrick-type who can consistently win a blue seat by being a moderate.

RI-02 is significantly bluer than PA-01. PA-01 was Biden +5, RI-02 was Biden +14. That's a near impossible seat to get entrenched in.

Agreed, though NE is more swingy than Pa-1 is in terms of being open to moderate Rs (particularly when they’re pro-choice). It’s not inconceivable that Fung could hold on if an R wins in 2024, but the first R presidential midterm he’d for sure be toast.

[DrScholl]

False positive. 45% is Fung's ceiling (in a very unusual best case scenario). And as the tweet mentioned it was taken before the Supreme Court decision and Republican numbers will undoubted collapse just like they did after the leak of the brief.

On the basis of what ?

Based on the fact it is a +14 Biden district and heavy polarization limits crossover support. 45% is probably too generous.

Trump, of all people, literally got 44% in the same district (2016).. in this environment, how exactly can 45% for Fung he regarded as generous.

2016 is not a valid metric. Polarization is worse than it was in 2016.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

False positive. 45% is Fung's ceiling (in a very unusual best case scenario). And as the tweet mentioned it was taken before the Supreme Court decision and Republican numbers will undoubted collapse just like they did after the leak of the brief.

On the basis of what ?

Based on the fact it is a +14 Biden district and heavy polarization limits crossover support. 45% is probably too generous.

Trump, of all people, literally got 44% in the same district (2016).. in this environment, how exactly can 45% for Fung he regarded as generous.

2016 is not a valid metric. Polarization is worse than it was in 2016.

So, you're either suggesting there's no swing voters who may be open to voting for a republican downballot or don't seem to understand the connotations of a wave midterm..? How exactly do you explain the historic republican lead on the generic ballot, if democratic support is so baked in..

[Senator Incitatus]

ftp://

Very strong candidate in Fung in a region that still does plenty of ticket-splitting. Wouldn't expect a national swing of 20 points but this is not unrealistic.

May or may not flip, though I agree that this is a red flag for Dems. Just confirms what we already know: The House is Safe R at this point.

If it flips, however, Fung will be low hanging fruit in 2024.

My guess is Fung would use this as a springboard to run for Governor again.

What would the map of a uniform twenty-point House swing (to the R's) even look like?

I can't find exact Biden margins by district, but it would be something insane like a 60 seat gain. Republicans would win every single seat currently considered competitive and around twenty that aren't. Pretty sure they'd be winning seats that every prognosticator has as currently safe.

Again, every reason to consider this district an outlier. But also worth noting that Fung leads the other Democratic candidates by 8–14, so if you disagree with me and you're looking at this poll as representative of national trends, it's even worse.

[MATTROSE94]

Very strong candidate in Fung in a region that still does plenty of ticket-splitting. Wouldn't expect a national swing of 20 points but this is not unrealistic.

May or may not flip, though I agree that this is a red flag for Dems. Just confirms what we already know: The House is Safe R at this point.

If it flips, however, Fung will be low hanging fruit in 2024.

My guess is Fung would use this as a springboard to run for Governor again.

Maybe for Senate in 2024 as well, though I think that Jessica de la Cruz would be a better choice for Rhode Island Republicans.

[MATTROSE94]

ftp://

Very strong candidate in Fung in a region that still does plenty of ticket-splitting. Wouldn't expect a national swing of 20 points but this is not unrealistic.

May or may not flip, though I agree that this is a red flag for Dems. Just confirms what we already know: The House is Safe R at this point.

If it flips, however, Fung will be low hanging fruit in 2024.

My guess is Fung would use this as a springboard to run for Governor again.

What would the map of a uniform twenty-point House swing (to the R's) even look like?

I can't find exact Biden margins by district, but it would be something insane like a 60 seat gain. Republicans would win every single seat currently considered competitive and around twenty that aren't. Pretty sure they'd be winning seats that every prognosticator has as currently safe.

Again, every reason to consider this district an outlier. But also worth noting that Fung leads the other Democratic candidates by 10, so if you disagree with me and you're looking at this poll as representative of national trends, it's even worse.

I have the Republicans picking up over 100 House seats, so that would probably be like a 25 or 30% swing. My prediction might be changing depending on the impact of the overturning of Roe v. Wade, however.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We already know why the H might go R and S go D because with Biden Ds can raise taxes but as I said before, we need to wait til Labor Day to see what time of wave not to mention the War in Ukraine is still not settled