PA-01 (GSG/D internal?): Fitzpatrick +7

[wbrocks67]

Assuming this is possibly an Ehasz internal

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1541416072951242752

[wbrocks67]

In the first vote, Fitzpatrick gets 21% of Democrats. Until Dems can force that # down, Fitz will keep winning.

https://globalstrategygroup.app.box.com/s/c09el5xd7keg1o16igpeaxlrfw5xagxa

[wesmoorenerd]

Dems probably wouldn't flip this seat this year even if Fitzpatrick retired.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We have to wait for Labor day to see about polls it's still too early, D's are obviously doing well in Senate and Gov races where they are behind in H races

[Politician]

Safe R

[hyouzel the predictor]

Safe R seat as long as Fitzpatrick wants to be in Congress. He will win enough of the ancestral Republican turned Democrat vote that the bluing of SE Pennsylvania relies through "moderate policy" that the seat is his.

[Roll Roons]

Safe R seat as long as Fitzpatrick wants to be in Congress. He will win enough of the ancestral Republican turned Democrat vote that the bluing of SE Pennsylvania relies through "moderate policy" that the seat is his.

Bear in mind that even at the presidential level, Bucks County has stayed much closer than ChesCo, DelCo or MontCo because it has a much larger WWC population.

Fitz is so strong electorally because he does well with WWC, seeing as he got a bunch of union endorsements last time, while also being moderate enough to be palatable to the wealthy ancestral Rs who hate Trump.

[hyouzel the predictor]

Safe R seat as long as Fitzpatrick wants to be in Congress. He will win enough of the ancestral Republican turned Democrat vote that the bluing of SE Pennsylvania relies through "moderate policy" that the seat is his.

Bear in mind that even at the presidential level, Bucks County has stayed much closer than ChesCo, DelCo or MontCo because it has a much larger WWC population.

Fitz is so strong electorally because he does well with WWC, seeing as he got a bunch of union endorsements last time, while also being moderate enough to be palatable to the wealthy ancestral Rs who hate Trump.

Yes, Bucks is a weird mix of Philly suburban expansion with new residents that are zooming left and WWC similar to the rest of Eastern PA (Northampton/Lehigh/Luzerne/Lackawanna) that remain stubbornly Lean R. Fitz has found a great balance between the two through messaging and strategic votes... wouldn't be surprised if he ran for Senate in 24 against Casey which would make the race Likely R in my eyes

[wbrocks67]

Safe R seat as long as Fitzpatrick wants to be in Congress. He will win enough of the ancestral Republican turned Democrat vote that the bluing of SE Pennsylvania relies through "moderate policy" that the seat is his.

Bear in mind that even at the presidential level, Bucks County has stayed much closer than ChesCo, DelCo or MontCo because it has a much larger WWC population.

Fitz is so strong electorally because he does well with WWC, seeing as he got a bunch of union endorsements last time, while also being moderate enough to be palatable to the wealthy ancestral Rs who hate Trump.

Yes, Bucks is a weird mix of Philly suburban expansion with new residents that are zooming left and WWC similar to the rest of Eastern PA (Northampton/Lehigh/Luzerne/Lackawanna) that remain stubbornly Lean R. Fitz has found a great balance between the two through messaging and strategic votes... wouldn't be surprised if he ran for Senate in 24 against Casey which would make the race Likely R in my eyes

He'd never win a primary.

[hyouzel the predictor]

Safe R seat as long as Fitzpatrick wants to be in Congress. He will win enough of the ancestral Republican turned Democrat vote that the bluing of SE Pennsylvania relies through "moderate policy" that the seat is his.

Bear in mind that even at the presidential level, Bucks County has stayed much closer than ChesCo, DelCo or MontCo because it has a much larger WWC population.

Fitz is so strong electorally because he does well with WWC, seeing as he got a bunch of union endorsements last time, while also being moderate enough to be palatable to the wealthy ancestral Rs who hate Trump.

Yes, Bucks is a weird mix of Philly suburban expansion with new residents that are zooming left and WWC similar to the rest of Eastern PA (Northampton/Lehigh/Luzerne/Lackawanna) that remain stubbornly Lean R. Fitz has found a great balance between the two through messaging and strategic votes... wouldn't be surprised if he ran for Senate in 24 against Casey which would make the race Likely R in my eyes

He'd never win a primary.

Yeah probably, but if he did (perhaps in a McCormick like fashion against a split field of Trumpists) he would be an excellent R candidate

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Safe R seat as long as Fitzpatrick wants to be in Congress. He will win enough of the ancestral Republican turned Democrat vote that the bluing of SE Pennsylvania relies through "moderate policy" that the seat is his.

Bear in mind that even at the presidential level, Bucks County has stayed much closer than ChesCo, DelCo or MontCo because it has a much larger WWC population.

Fitz is so strong electorally because he does well with WWC, seeing as he got a bunch of union endorsements last time, while also being moderate enough to be palatable to the wealthy ancestral Rs who hate Trump.

Yes, Bucks is a weird mix of Philly suburban expansion with new residents that are zooming left and WWC similar to the rest of Eastern PA (Northampton/Lehigh/Luzerne/Lackawanna) that remain stubbornly Lean R. Fitz has found a great balance between the two through messaging and strategic votes... wouldn't be surprised if he ran for Senate in 24 against Casey which would make the race Likely R in my eyes

He'd never win a primary.

This is just a talking point from Dems who believe he is a strong candidate and don't want him to win the primary. Fitzpatrick wouldn't necessarily be favored but he would have a shot.