6 ways in which 2022 is different than 2018.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I often hear people on this forum, especially those who may be newer to this area, talk about how 2022 will be akin to 2018 and all these parallels between races and stuff. Even if the wave is similar in magnitude though, there are very important differences in dynamics at play that can influence both congressional and state races.

1. 2018 was an anti-Trump year in the sense most Dem and many moderate voters voted with the should intention of punishing Trump oftentimes for his personality. While in 2022 there def is anti-Biden momentum, there seems to be a larger momentum against the Democratic Party as a whole, with Republicans using many congressional and state level Dems as boogeymen rather than just going all out on Biden.

2. 2018's Senate map was far more unbalanced than the one up this well. The "tossup" seats that will likely decide control are in your traditional swing states that are close the median in the EC (PA, WI, NV, WI, ect). Republicans flipping BOTH the Senate and the House is far more realistic than Dems flipping both in 2018 ever was.

3. Dems don't have a lot to lose in terms of state legislatures, mostly because their current position isn't that impressive to begin with. Really the only chambers in immediate danger are in AK, ME, MN, and possibly NV. In 2018, Dems flipped a lot of state legistlatures that were bound to flip (NY, CO, CT) whereas Rs don't have this low of hanging fruit in 2022 other than arguably AK and anything they do flip may very well flip back. It's not hard to see a result that's basically net even on both the state legistlative and governor levels.

4. The GOP seems to be running riskier candidates who they want to appeal to the base and rile up turnout, when in 2018 Dems ran moderate or at least relatively mainstream Dems in key races. Just look at MI and PA governor primaries on the R side for instance; both have been pretty disastrous. You also have A LOT of House incumbents on the R side being seriously challenged by more extreme members, some of whom have been successful. While there was a bit of this on the Dem side in 2018, it was much more contained.

5. There is less low hanging fruit in the House for the GOP. In 20 Dems flipped a bunch of suburban seats that ended up voting for Biden by like 20 in 2020 (VA-10, MN-03, GA-06) where Clinton already had relatively solid performances. Most of the seats Republicans will need are Biden seats and they have very few "default flips" other than those because of redistricting such as TN-05. They also hold quite a few Biden + 10ish seats themselves because of redistricting that could be vulnerable just becuae of how blue they are (Garcia, Valadao, ect).

6. Trump is still relatively involved. To some, this might be a similarity, but it's a difference in the sense in 2018 Dems really had no clear "leader" and Obama was way out of the picture by 2018. Trump still gets pretty regular news cycles and those will continue till at least the end of the Jan 6 investigation which seems like it'll push pretty close to the midterms. It also means to some degree, Dems can still use Trump as a boogeyman though many argue it's getting old.

Overall, I don't know how these 6 factors will collectively impact things, but just something to think about.

[Rjjr77]

I often hear people on this forum, especially those who may be newer to this area, talk about how 2022 will be akin to 2018 and all these parallels between races and stuff. Even if the wave is similar in magnitude though, there are very important differences in dynamics at play that can influence both congressional and state races.

1. 2018 was an anti-Trump year in the sense most Dem and many moderate voters voted with the should intention of punishing Trump oftentimes for his personality. While in 2022 there def is anti-Biden momentum, there seems to be a larger momentum against the Democratic Party as a whole, with Republicans using many congressional and state level Dems as boogeymen rather than just going all out on Biden.

2. 2018's Senate map was far more unbalanced than the one up this well. The "tossup" seats that will likely decide control are in your traditional swing states that are close the median in the EC (PA, WI, NV, WI, ect). Republicans flipping BOTH the Senate and the House is far more realistic than Dems flipping both in 2018 ever was.

3. Dems don't have a lot to lose in terms of state legislatures, mostly because their current position isn't that impressive to begin with. Really the only chambers in immediate danger are in AK, ME, MN, and possibly NV. In 2018, Dems flipped a lot of state legistlatures that were bound to flip (NY, CO, CT) whereas Rs don't have this low of hanging fruit in 2022 other than arguably AK and anything they do flip may very well flip back. It's not hard to see a result that's basically net even on both the state legistlative and governor levels.

4. The GOP seems to be running riskier candidates who they want to appeal to the base and rile up turnout, when in 2018 Dems ran moderate or at least relatively mainstream Dems in key races. Just look at MI and PA governor primaries on the R side for instance; both have been pretty disastrous. You also have A LOT of House incumbents on the R side being seriously challenged by more extreme members, some of whom have been successful. While there was a bit of this on the Dem side in 2018, it was much more contained.

5. There is less low hanging fruit in the House for the GOP. In 20 Dems flipped a bunch of suburban seats that ended up voting for Biden by like 20 in 2020 (VA-10, MN-03, GA-06) where Clinton already had relatively solid performances. Most of the seats Republicans will need are Biden seats and they have very few "default flips" other than those because of redistricting such as TN-05. They also hold quite a few Biden + 10ish seats themselves because of redistricting that could be vulnerable just becuae of how blue they are (Garcia, Valadao, ect).

6. Trump is still relatively involved. To some, this might be a similarity, but it's a difference in the sense in 2018 Dems really had no clear "leader" and Obama was way out of the picture by 2018. Trump still gets pretty regular news cycles and those will continue till at least the end of the Jan 6 investigation which seems like it'll push pretty close to the midterms. It also means to some degree, Dems can still use Trump as a boogeyman though many argue it's getting old.

Overall, I don't know how these 6 factors will collectively impact things, but just something to think about.

I mean all this is very true, but the biggest difference is the economy. The price of inelastic goods is skyrocketing

[coloradocowboi]

I don't often agree with you, but this is a very, very good take.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Inflation like Covid is a worldwide problem the difference between Biden and Trump was that Trump was pretending that COVID didn't exist and didn't wear a mask and caught COVID himself, we only need 303 but as I often said we need the H so indeed a blue wave can happen, 303 is solidified already

Income inequality caused by the 2017 tax cuts were passed by Rs not Ds

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't often agree with you, but this is a very, very good take.

Did you know the 2017 tax cuts created income inequality, passed by R Congress and Trump before the blue 2018 wave