(This scenario assumes COVID-19 never spread beyond China's borders)
President Ed Donnell was extremely popular due to the economic recovery seen under his Administration, and foreign policy successes such as the Treaty of Amman. However, he faced opposition from populists, although moderates made up for that.
Donnell ran for reelection promising an infrastructure bill, criminal justice reform and ratifying a Balanced Budget Amendment during his second term. Donnell touted his successes with healthcare, tax cuts and foreign trade, while contrasting his "21st Century Conservatism" to Joe Biden's New Democrat philosophy. As to the BLM protests, Donnell called for Derek Chauvin to be prosecuted and doubled down on reforming the criminal justice system, while attacking Joe Biden on the 1994 Crime Bill and the deportations under Obama.
Joe Biden promised a public healthcare option, "building back better" with a $500 billion infrastructure bill, legalizing marijuana, repealing Ed Donnell's tax cuts for the wealthy, and making childcare free. In contrast with the 42-year-old Donnell, the 77-year-old Biden seemed lackluster, although he said the growth during the Donnell Administration was inherited from Obama's. However, Biden was unable to respond effectively to Donnell's attacks.
Donnell flipped Nevada, Michigan and Maine's 2nd Congressional district, but failed to carry Minnesota due to Biden selecting Amy Klobuchar as his running mate. Donnell increased his 2016 margins across the board.
The election caused a political realignment, 21st Century Conservatism becoming the dominant political view for a generation.
