Cygnal - PA Senate - Fetterman +4

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1540144175814959106?t=mtv5iUkOMDDOiszX-nO...

[Politician]

Before the usual suspects get excited, this is a D+6 sample.

[Minnesota Mike]

Before the usual suspects get excited, this is a D+6 sample.

And by voter registration PA is a D+6 state.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Before the usual suspects get excited, this is a D+6 sample.

And by voter registration PA is a D+6 state.

But it's not a neutral year so turnout differences means that is still too favorable for dems.

[GALeftist]

Voters know Democrats have mismanaged our economy with reckless spendings and focused on radial left issues instead of the well-being of Americans and Pennsylvanians

You heard the man. Time to shift to diametrical left issues

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This is literally a Republican firm who in their write up said “Voters know Democrats have mismanaged our economy with reckless spendings and focused on radial[sic] left issues instead of the well-being of Americans and Pennsylvanians.” and people here are accusing it of being a D-biased poll, LOL.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Weighting by party registration instead of party ID is stupid for a multitude of reasons. People may not even know their status, they may misunderstand the question and answer with party ID anyways, and the registration numbers are currently trending R. It could be right or it could be wrong (in either direction) but either way it seems suspect to weight that way

[UncleSam]

Ya on the face of it this isn't a great poll for Dems (seems very unlikely they will outnumber Rs to the tune of D+6 come November), but the way the poll is written up and the possible misinterpretation of the Voter Reg question makes this honestly more junky than anything else. The other polls (the ones which looked better for Dems in every respect) seem more reliable tbh.

Interesting that every poll has had Mastriano outrunning Oz thus far though. Seems like a trend.

[free my dawg]

"Fetterman can't win the primary, Lamb is just as qualified and more establishment-friendly"

"There's three months to the election, plenty of time for Lamb to win"

"Lamb has the momentum, this Fett+30 poll can't be right"

"Well, time to get behind Fetterman, Lamb has no chance. Bring on Dr. Oz"

"It's an R midterm, Fetterman can't be winning by this much" <- YOU ARE HERE

"Laxalt and Masters are winning, trends will drag Oz over too!"

"Holy sh*t I can't believe Fetterman won"

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ya on the face of it this isn't a great poll for Dems (seems very unlikely they will outnumber Rs to the tune of D+6 come November), but the way the poll is written up and the possible misinterpretation of the Voter Reg question makes this honestly more junky than anything else. The other polls (the ones which looked better for Dems in every respect) seem more reliable tbh.

Interesting that every poll has had Mastriano outrunning Oz thus far though. Seems like a trend.

Do you realize D's won the PVI since 2006 have won the PVI average 65/62M votes except for low turnout yrs of 2010/14 and 2020 we won the PVI 80/75M we're not getting 80M voted but 65M we will get because lower Turnout not more Rs among under 30 year olds which is 15% of D vore

Just like Latinos aren't moving rightward along with Blks account for 30 percent, 15 percent each for each ethnicity of the D vote share, 20% of whites equal 50%

These aren't PPP poll wait for a PPP Shapiro and Fetterman will be leading by five not 3

[UncleSam]

"Fetterman can't win the primary, Lamb is just as qualified and more establishment-friendly"

"There's three months to the election, plenty of time for Lamb to win"

"Lamb has the momentum, this Fett+30 poll can't be right"

"Well, time to get behind Fetterman, Lamb has no chance. Bring on Dr. Oz"

"It's an R midterm, Fetterman can't be winning by this much" <- YOU ARE HERE

"Laxalt and Masters are winning, trends will drag Oz over too!"

"Holy sh*t I can't believe Fetterman won"

Who is having this internal monologue with themselves in your head lol

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

"Fetterman can't win the primary, Lamb is just as qualified and more establishment-friendly"

"There's three months to the election, plenty of time for Lamb to win"

"Lamb has the momentum, this Fett+30 poll can't be right"

"Well, time to get behind Fetterman, Lamb has no chance. Bring on Dr. Oz"

"It's an R midterm, Fetterman can't be winning by this much" <- YOU ARE HERE

"Laxalt and Masters are winning, trends will drag Oz over too!"

"Holy sh*t I can't believe Fetterman won"

Who is having this internal monologue with themselves in your head lol

Lol you are the one keep saying a non PPP is an trash I just quoted the facts D's outnumber Rs since 2006 65/62M except for 20010/2014 it's on Election results of you click on his website, you're quoting misleading facts that Rs outnumber D's, not me

We won 80/75M votes including PA last time

[wbrocks67]

This is literally a Republican firm who in their write up said “Voters know Democrats have mismanaged our economy with reckless spendings and focused on radial[sic] left issues instead of the well-being of Americans and Pennsylvanians.” and people here are accusing it of being a D-biased poll, LOL.

Exactly lmao. People really out here thinking this is some D-biased poll when their write-up starts out with "Fetterman ONLY up 4" ... in PA... in a red year... in a Biden midterm. I mean come on now.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Weighting by party registration instead of party ID is stupid for a multitude of reasons. People may not even know their status, they may misunderstand the question and answer with party ID anyways, and the registration numbers are currently trending R. It could be right or it could be wrong (in either direction) but either way it seems suspect to weight that way

Party registration is public information, so a pollster can verifiably stratify their sample by party registration, but not party ID.

[President Johnson]

"Fetterman can't win the primary, Lamb is just as qualified and more establishment-friendly"

"There's three months to the election, plenty of time for Lamb to win"

"Lamb has the momentum, this Fett+30 poll can't be right"

"Well, time to get behind Fetterman, Lamb has no chance. Bring on Dr. Oz"

"It's an R midterm, Fetterman can't be winning by this much" <- YOU ARE HERE

"Laxalt and Masters are winning, trends will drag Oz over too!"

"Holy sh*t I can't believe Fetterman won"

To be fair, Fetterman also got support from the establishment wing and more moderate Democrats, including on this forum. That clearly explains why he won the primary so decisively. He's not a candidate that only appeals to progressives, which is why he has a decent shot to win the general.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I don't understand why people are surprised. Polls are constantly showing Oz with upwards of -30 in net favorability.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I don't understand why people are surprised. Polls are constantly showing Oz with upwards of -30 in net favorability.

Because some people have an overly simplistic belief that a generally R-favoring environment means that every R candidate in a competitive race is certain to win, despite plenty of historical counterexamples.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Weird poll but there is hope for us in both PA races it seems

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Weird poll but there is hope for us in both PA races it seems

Yea because of the insurrection commission and abortion

[Sbane]

I don't understand why people are surprised. Polls are constantly showing Oz with upwards of -30 in net favorability.

Because some people have an overly simplistic belief that a generally R-favoring environment means that every R candidate in a competitive race is certain to win, despite plenty of historical counterexamples.

Absolutely agree. We may see some surprises in Senate and Governor's races. The congressional and state/local elections will hew closer to the generic ballot.

[free my dawg]

"Fetterman can't win the primary, Lamb is just as qualified and more establishment-friendly"

"There's three months to the election, plenty of time for Lamb to win"

"Lamb has the momentum, this Fett+30 poll can't be right"

"Well, time to get behind Fetterman, Lamb has no chance. Bring on Dr. Oz"

"It's an R midterm, Fetterman can't be winning by this much" <- YOU ARE HERE

"Laxalt and Masters are winning, trends will drag Oz over too!"

"Holy sh*t I can't believe Fetterman won"

Who is having this internal monologue with themselves in your head lol

The GOP, apparently, who are coping and seething

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Before the usual suspects get excited, this is a D+6 sample.

Weighting by party registration is demonstrably bad practice. A substantial chunk of people will self ID with party whose candidate they just said they’d vote for.