PA-GOV (Fabrizio Ward/Impact/AARP): Shapiro +3

[Adam Griffin]

Absolutely no chance the indie numbers look like that. Extremely good poll for Shapiro and Fetterman.

You can't simultaneously disregard the indie number and call it a good poll lmao

You absolutely can when sample sizes and margins of error may vary by 5-10x between the overall poll and individual subsets. We've seen plenty of polls in the past where the toplines were on point but individual crosstabs were absolutely crazy.

[Adam Griffin]

Additionally, something nobody has brought up:

AARP commissioned the bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward & Impact Research to conduct a survey. The firms interviewed 1382 likely Pennsylvania voters, which includes a statewide representative sample of 500 likely voters, with an oversample of 550 likely voters age 50 and older and an additional oversample of 328 Black likely voters age 50 and older, between June 12-19.

As far as representative accuracy goes, looking at the "50+ Voters" is likely going to be the most accurate subset. Among them:

Candidate Image, 50+
Shapiro +15; Mastriano -7
Fetterman +11; Oz -23

[Unelectable Bystander]

This poll doesn’t seem to make internal sense with the PA electorate. Multiply the 2020 partisan makeup (41% R, 40%D, 19%I) by Shapiro’s vote share with each (11%, 89%, 34%) and you get like 46.5% overall, not 49%. Somehow this sample is over-weighting D’s relative to 2020 when if anything there will be more R’s in the electorate

[wbrocks67]

Is it just me, or do Oz and Shapiro give off the carpetbagger/elitist vibe whereas mastriano and fetterman give off the homegrown impression? Maybe that’s why we see a much closer race for Governor than senate right now?

What are the chances of a split ticket result for Mastriano/Fetterman?
Someone from PA enlighten me please.

No. First of all, Oz and Shapiro aren't comparable, and Shapiro is 'homegrown', him being from Montco is a huge part (and has been a huge part) of his campaign(s).

We're seeing a closer race for GOV because we haven't had 3 straight Democratic governments in PA in a long time, and Mastriano is still considered 'generic R' to many people who have not tuned in.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This poll doesn’t seem to make internal sense with the PA electorate. Multiply the 2020 partisan makeup (41% R, 40%D, 19%I) by Shapiro’s vote share with each (11%, 89%, 34%) and you get like 46.5% overall, not 49%. Somehow this sample is over-weighting D’s relative to 2020 when if anything there will be more R’s in the electorate

We won the Blue wall in 2020 and there isn't gonna be more Rs in this Election its gonna be less than 80/75 M votes more like 65/60M users always conflate that just because it's a Midterm Environment it's gonna be more Rs and Indies outnumber everyone is 40% Indies and 28Rs and 28% D's that's our Electorate andWC females not Latins are moving to the right Newsom won the Latino vote in CA Recall

[Sir Mohamed]

I remain surprised or skeptical Mastriano is doing better than Oz. Doubt this keeps up as the campaign progresses.

Shapiro is for sure favored, but we can't be satisfied with such an insane dude getting within 3 pts.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I remain surprised or skeptical Mastriano is doing better than Oz. Doubt this keeps up as the campaign progresses.

Shapiro is for sure favored, but we can't be satisfied with such an insane dude getting within 3 pts.

What did GA Runoffs tell about polls within the MOE if it's close we win on Provision ballots and PA takes longer than expected to count VBM ballot

[Devils30]

Mastriano hasn't had the barrage of scrutiny he will get and has little cash to counter it.

[wbrocks67]

I remain surprised or skeptical Mastriano is doing better than Oz. Doubt this keeps up as the campaign progresses.

Shapiro is for sure favored, but we can't be satisfied with such an insane dude getting within 3 pts.

It's only b/c Mastriano is consolidating more Rs right now than Oz is. And Oz is also doing much worse with Indies, which could be believable because Oz was just barraged on the air for 5 months vs. Mastriano being a virtual unknown to likely at least half the PA electorate.

[Adam Griffin]

This poll doesn’t seem to make internal sense with the PA electorate. Multiply the 2020 partisan makeup (41% R, 40%D, 19%I) by Shapiro’s vote share with each (11%, 89%, 34%) and you get like 46.5% overall, not 49%. Somehow this sample is over-weighting D’s relative to 2020 when if anything there will be more R’s in the electorate

The partisan makeup of the poll is self-reported, as opposed to using voter registration affiliations. In a state like PA, that's probably the better route given the closed primary system and a greater than average share of ancestral D/R voters on the rolls.

The D-R margin is basically identical to 2020 (R+1 in 2020 vs tied in the poll), but with only half as many people identifying as independents - which makes sense given plenty of registered independents consistently vote for and identify with one party. So when you plug in 34% into that 19% of the 2020 electorate, you come up 3 points short of what the poll shows.

I'd also say there's an overestimation of how much self-ID GOP vote Shapiro will get (and vice-versa for Mastriano): really doubtful either will crack 5-6% in the end.  


EDIT: just realized the initial figures you gave were self-ID as well, rather than turnout stats by party. Perhaps fewer people this cycle are identifying as independents, or perhaps the sample is under-representing GOP and/or over-representing DEM.

[TodayJunior]

Is it just me, or do Oz and Shapiro give off the carpetbagger/elitist vibe whereas mastriano and fetterman give off the homegrown impression? Maybe that’s why we see a much closer race for Governor than senate right now?

What are the chances of a split ticket result for Mastriano/Fetterman?
Someone from PA enlighten me please.

No. First of all, Oz and Shapiro aren't comparable, and Shapiro is 'homegrown', him being from Montco is a huge part (and has been a huge part) of his campaign(s).

We're seeing a closer race for GOV because we haven't had 3 straight Democratic governments in PA in a long time, and Mastriano is still considered 'generic R' to many people who have not tuned in.

Wow...that's... frightening. How could so many people not know how radical this dude is?!?

[wbrocks67]

Is it just me, or do Oz and Shapiro give off the carpetbagger/elitist vibe whereas mastriano and fetterman give off the homegrown impression? Maybe that’s why we see a much closer race for Governor than senate right now?

What are the chances of a split ticket result for Mastriano/Fetterman?
Someone from PA enlighten me please.

No. First of all, Oz and Shapiro aren't comparable, and Shapiro is 'homegrown', him being from Montco is a huge part (and has been a huge part) of his campaign(s).

We're seeing a closer race for GOV because we haven't had 3 straight Democratic governments in PA in a long time, and Mastriano is still considered 'generic R' to many people who have not tuned in.

Wow...that's... frightening. How could so many people not know how radical this dude is?!?

Because he wasn't known before the primary. Oz has been battered on TV for 5 months, so people have seen his weak spots. Most people had on idea who Mastriano was before the primary because he was just a state senator. And even now, the slow drip of news about him is slowly coming to light (with ads and stuff too). Most normal people who don't follow politics wouldn't have known about him or how crazy he was until now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs platform offers no alternative to Ds all they say we can't afford more Socialism and most of the Entitlements we're off of Tax cuts 3T War on Terror 8 T and Stimulus spending 400 in extra Unemployment and the interest, off the Debt we need to continue Entitlements, Section 8 and Climate change there is more work to be done

Don't forgeti Military and the Commission officers get fat checks in Pensions like Air Force