PA-GOV (Fabrizio Ward/Impact/AARP): Shapiro +3

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1539708246822424578

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Mastriano leads indies by 18 points.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

LOL Oz

[wbrocks67]

The only thing surprising here is Shapiro being underwater with Indies in favorability at -9, vs. Mastriano's even #. Very different from the Suffolk poll.

Also losing independents by 18% is incredibly unlikely too.

However, it's a n=500 total sample, so I'm sure the Indie sample is like 50 people.

[wbrocks67]

Mastriano leads indies by 18 points.

if anything, Mastriano is leading Indies here by nearly 20% and still is losing by 3%.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

The only thing surprising here is Shapiro being underwater with Indies in favorability at -9, vs. Mastriano's even #. Very different from the Suffolk poll.

Also losing independents by 18% is incredibly unlikely too.

However, it's a n=500 total sample, so I'm sure the Indie sample is like 50 people.

4.4% MOE is self explanatory here.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Absolutely no chance the indie numbers look like that. Extremely good poll for Shapiro and Fetterman.

[wbrocks67]

Shapiro's -39 net fav among Rs is also striking, with nearly 20% of them giving him a favorable rating.

[Lief 🗽]

This one is getting ugly. Shapiro seems to be running a feckless campaign so far based on how well Mastriano is holding up. Nearly a 20 point deficit with independents is impossible to win with.

[Skill and Chance]

This one is getting ugly. Shapiro seems to be running a feckless campaign so far based on how well Mastriano is holding up. Nearly a 20 point deficit with independents is impossible to win with.

Conspiracy theory oriented candidates often play suprisingly well with Indies.  Just apply the 2020 PA polling bias and we get a narrow win for Mastriano while Fetterman narrowly flips the senate seat. 

[President Johnson]

This one is getting ugly. Shapiro seems to be running a feckless campaign so far based on how well Mastriano is holding up. Nearly a 20 point deficit with independents is impossible to win with.

Probably the sample is just too small. Mastriano is not well known at this point, and once he is voters will find out he's not just a "generic Republican."

His campaign also didn't even raise 400k in the last report.

[wbrocks67]

This one is getting ugly. Shapiro seems to be running a feckless campaign so far based on how well Mastriano is holding up. Nearly a 20 point deficit with independents is impossible to win with.

It would serve people well to actually read the posts in the thread. The total n= is 500 in this poll, meaning a pretty small Indies sample size that we can't gleam much from, especially when it's net nearly 30% different than the Suffolk/USAT poll.

[Matty]

This one is getting ugly. Shapiro seems to be running a feckless campaign so far based on how well Mastriano is holding up. Nearly a 20 point deficit with independents is impossible to win with.

It would serve people well to actually read the posts in the thread. The total n= is 500 in this poll, meaning a pretty small Indies sample size that we can't gleam much from, especially when it's net nearly 30% different than the Suffolk/USAT poll.

I will say it’s kind of funny that mastriano is outperforming Oz. Talk about something nobody saw coming, lol.

[TodayJunior]

Is it just me, or do Oz and Shapiro give off the carpetbagger/elitist vibe whereas mastriano and fetterman give off the homegrown impression? Maybe that’s why we see a much closer race for Governor than senate right now?

What are the chances of a split ticket result for Mastriano/Fetterman?
Someone from PA enlighten me please.

[Politician]

If Shapiro is losing independents by this much, he's toast.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Shapiro is losing independents by this much, he's toast.

Lol, Politicians still has an R NUT MAP ITS WRONG

I want it to be a 303 but we have Kendra Horn, Charles Booker, Ryan, Crist that can overperform if we win the Secularist Trifecta if we get 51 Seats plus the H it's over for the Rs DC STATEHOOD

We only need 1 more vote SEN and 218 H to get rid of Filibuster for Good cancel Sinema

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Yall its early. When negative ads against Fetterman/Mastriano go out, their numbers will go down

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yall its early. When negative ads against Fetterman/Mastriano go out, their numbers will go down

Lol do you Doom all the time , the Insurrectionists Commission and abortion is having a damaging effect on the R party users act like it's no Commission it's just inflation

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Absolutely no chance the indie numbers look like that. Extremely good poll for Shapiro and Fetterman.

You can't simultaneously disregard the indie number and call it a good poll lmao

[GALeftist]

Absolutely no chance the indie numbers look like that. Extremely good poll for Shapiro and Fetterman.

You can't simultaneously disregard the indie number and call it a good poll lmao

Well, you can at least say that Oz has some big issues if he's underwater by 26 points in an indy sample which is split down the middle on Mastriano.

[Senator Incitatus]

Yall its early. When negative ads against Fetterman/Mastriano go out, their numbers will go down

Shapiro is already airing ads both positive and negative during every commercial break.

[MT Treasurer]

This is obviously just gut feeling, but I’ve always considered Mastriano someone who will either totally implode and lose by a blowout or someone who will actually defy all conventional wisdom and win by a very narrow margin, with nothing in between.

Worth noting that the Shapiro campaign ran ads promoting Mastriano in the R primary. Definitely a risky bet on their part.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

This one is getting ugly. Shapiro seems to be running a feckless campaign so far based on how well Mastriano is holding up. Nearly a 20 point deficit with independents is impossible to win with.

It would serve people well to actually read the posts in the thread. The total n= is 500 in this poll, meaning a pretty small Indies sample size that we can't gleam much from, especially when it's net nearly 30% different than the Suffolk/USAT poll.

I will say it’s kind of funny that mastriano is outperforming Oz. Talk about something nobody saw coming, lol.

If you look at their favorability numbers it makes perfect sense. I expect the gap to close once Mastriano's more insane stuff gets airtime but all people know about Oz is 20 years of snake oil sales.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This one is getting ugly. Shapiro seems to be running a feckless campaign so far based on how well Mastriano is holding up. Nearly a 20 point deficit with independents is impossible to win with.

It would serve people well to actually read the posts in the thread. The total n= is 500 in this poll, meaning a pretty small Indies sample size that we can't gleam much from, especially when it's net nearly 30% different than the Suffolk/USAT poll.

I will say it’s kind of funny that mastriano is outperforming Oz. Talk about something nobody saw coming, lol.

If you look at their favorability numbers it makes perfect sense. I expect the gap to close once Mastriano's more insane stuff gets airtime but all people know about Oz is 20 years of snake oil sales.

This is AARP poll it's not even a PPP poll they are giving Mastriano more the benefit of the doubt and I expect the gap to grow,

[AncestralDemocrat.]

This is obviously just gut feeling, but I’ve always considered Mastriano someone who will either totally implode and lose by a blowout or someone who will actually defy all conventional wisdom and win by a very narrow margin, with nothing in between.

Worth noting that the Shapiro campaign ran ads promoting Mastriano in the R primary. Definitely a risky bet on their part.

Ratf***** in a wave environment which will carry republican mediocrity over the line.

As we see on this site, democrats don't seem to realize how this will backfire.