NH (UNH): Biden +7 (vs. Trump), DeSantis +1 (vs. Biden)

[wbrocks67]

Biden 50
Trump 43

DeSantis 47
Biden 46

https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/697/

[TPIG]

Hey, GOP...be smart and dump the Trumpster fire. Nominating him would be harmful, not just for the health of the country but also from a purely political perspective.

[2016]

Hey, GOP...be smart and dump the Trumpster fire. Nominating him would be harmful, not just for the health of the country but also from a purely political perspective.

If DeSantis is competitive in a State like New Hampshire then the 2024 Election is over if Democrats nominate Biden again.

[Barack Oganja]

Biden will be vulnerable in 2024, which means Repubs will probably blow it by nominating Trump

[xavier110]

The thought of an unconscious Biden fighting off someone agile who can rhetorically run laps around him like DeSantis is my idea of hell.

[MT Treasurer]

People really fail to appreciate what an absolutely abysmal candidate Donald J. Trump actually was/is and how much he underperformed the potential Republican ceiling/median to best-case scenario both in 2016 and in 2020.

[President Johnson]

People really fail to appreciate what an absolutely abysmal candidate Donald J. Trump actually was/is and how much he underperformed the potential Republican ceiling/median to best-case scenario both in 2016 and in 2020.

Well, he still brought people to the polls that typical Republicans would not have turned out and polling repeatedly underestimated that.

If that was true though, wouldn't it mean that America as a whole is more Republican-leaning? Or at least all major battlegrounds. Democrats winning the popular vote by having a 35 point margin in California is useless as long as the Electoral College exists.

[Senator-elect Spark]

This isn't too stunning for the general election at all. It appears that DeSantis is appealing to some suburbanites and other independents that are very dissatisfied with Biden. These groups are a big factor in a state like NH. These voters are probably also disillusioned with the economy.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This isn't too stunning for the general election at all. It appears that DeSantis is appealing to some suburbanites and other independents that are very dissatisfied with Biden. These groups are a big factor in a state like NH. These voters are probably also disillusioned with the economy.

It's within the MOE

[Alben Barkley]

People really fail to appreciate what an absolutely abysmal candidate Donald J. Trump actually was/is and how much he underperformed the potential Republican ceiling/median to best-case scenario both in 2016 and in 2020.

Well, he still brought people to the polls that typical Republicans would not have turned out and polling repeatedly underestimated that.

If that was true though, wouldn't it mean that America as a whole is more Republican-leaning? Or at least all major battlegrounds. Democrats winning the popular vote by having a 35 point margin in California is useless as long as the Electoral College exists.

It would also mean Obama was an INCREDIBLE candidate, to win so big in stares like MI and WI that would apparently otherwise be R-leaning, and to win states like FL and OH at all.

[BG-NY]

People really fail to appreciate what an absolutely abysmal candidate Donald J. Trump actually was/is and how much he underperformed the potential Republican ceiling/median to best-case scenario both in 2016 and in 2020.

Well, he still brought people to the polls that typical Republicans would not have turned out and polling repeatedly underestimated that.

If that was true though, wouldn't it mean that America as a whole is more Republican-leaning? Or at least all major battlegrounds. Democrats winning the popular vote by having a 35 point margin in California is useless as long as the Electoral College exists.

This is a good point, and a big part of why the Democrats are in much better shape than the media is painting. Trump, for all his flaws, is a much stronger general election candidate than the generic republican.

There is a lot of wishcasting among RDS acolytes. Fact of the matter is, (most) people who claim that RDS is a stronger candidate not only personally have a higher income/educational attainment than the median voter, but have their perceptions skewed since they associate primarily with others with high incomes/educational attainment.

[NewYorkExpress]

I find it hard to believe Biden isn't also leading DeSantis in New Hampshire. DeSantis isn't really a fit for New England at all.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I find it hard to believe Biden isn't also leading DeSantis in New Hampshire. DeSantis isn't really a fit for New England at all.

He's leading DeSantis in the You Gov poll, and plus 1 is MOE

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Sure NH is probably a better fit for a Bush-type of Republican, but i'm unsure whether DeSantis will succeed in appealing to both Trump base and the Bush/neocon/moderate conservative base in 2024 if he'll be nominated and what the environment is like. So while I definitely believe this poll, i'm not sure if the big difference between DeSantis and Trump would still be there.

I assume NH might be slightly closer in 2024 with Trump on the ballot and would be competitive with DeSantis on the ballot, and depending on how DeSantis continues to appeal to certain groups and the environment/issues in 2024, he could reasonably win but also not improve much on the margin Biden won NH with in 2020.

NH shouldn't be taken for granted, but it is also not needed, as it only has 4 electoral votes. With DeSantis on the ballot, it is possible NH would be to the right of the tipping point state.

I just think De Santis approval ratings would tank in a state like NH whenever he has to face the increased coverage and attacks as a consequence of being the nominee or being in a primary with other republicans.

This isn't too stunning for the general election at all. It appears that DeSantis is appealing to some suburbanites and other independents that are very dissatisfied with Biden. These groups are a big factor in a state like NH. These voters are probably also disillusioned with the economy.

I think this is the best explanation.

But I also still think Trump would win NH in a Republican primary against DeSantis, because those independents and suburbanites aren't going to decide the primary here, and Trump is kind of popular among the Republican base in NH. The Republican base just isn't enough to win the state, and there are lots of different types of republicans (and independents and moderates) in NH too.

[Eraserhead]

Hey, GOP...be smart and dump the Trumpster fire. Nominating him would be harmful, not just for the health of the country but also from a purely political perspective.

If DeSantis is competitive in a State like New Hampshire then the 2024 Election is over if Democrats nominate Biden again.

Not if Republicans are dumb enough to nominate Trump again.

Not saying Trump couldn't win but if he did, it'd likely be by the skin of his teeth or close to it. He is as polarizing as it gets at this point. They would be wise to nominate literally anyone else.

[Eraserhead]

I find it hard to believe Biden isn't also leading DeSantis in New Hampshire. DeSantis isn't really a fit for New England at all.

lol, you realize how unpopular Biden is at the moment right? DeSantis is a generic Republican to most people. Not everyone follows Florida politics.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden has a 76% Approvals among D's he's unpopular with Rs he is at 7% that's what skewing the Approvals and plus 1 is MOE noise

[pbrower2a]

Long before the disclosure of the classified documents at Malevolence-a-Lago. 50 at this point suggests that there would be no meaningful contest barriung a complete collapse.