Alberta (Canada) UCP leadership race

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Searched twitter for 17th & 20th Premier of Alberta, only relevant result:

https://twitter.com/robbreakenridge/status/594149795012292608
Man, those 2015 Albertans don't even know…

Well, Danielle Smith is only #19, so Jen Gerson still has a chance!

[Benjamin Frank]

I wish the province of British Columbia luck when Smith's shock troops begin the long march to the sea.

https://mobile.twitter.com/abdaniellesmith/status/1194693739802849280?lang=fr

If you break down her comments, they're full of contradictions. "All the provinces need to work together" but "Alberta first."

The implication is clear enough though that what she's saying is 'all the provinces need to work together to kowtow to Alberta.' Is she really stupid enough to believe that 'my province first' only works one way?

[brucejoel99]

Searched twitter for 17th & 20th Premier of Alberta, only relevant result:

https://twitter.com/robbreakenridge/status/594149795012292608
Man, those 2015 Albertans don't even know…

Well, Danielle Smith is only #19, so Jen Gerson still has a chance!

Ik, just wanted to see if anybody had preemptively made the 17/20 joke about Notley yet!

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Keep in mind that Smith doesn't have a seat in the legislature. With her relatively close margin of victory, I think she'll have a hard time pushing caucus to table a sovereignty act while she's on the outside. She's said that she will run for a by-election, but I could also see an early election at this point.

[Benjamin Frank]

Keep in mind that Smith doesn't have a seat in the legislature. With her relatively close margin of victory, I think she'll have a hard time pushing caucus to table a sovereignty act while she's on the outside. She's said that she will run for a by-election, but I could also see an early election at this point.

The UCP MLA in in Calgary-Elbow has resigned, a riding the NDP has a good chance to pick up and have something of a star candidate, Samir Kayande, an analyst at the Pembina Institute and a former oil and gas company executive.

Danielle Smith has already said that she won't call a byelection in this riding, but wants to run in a byelection in Southern Alberta, but not in Calgary-Elbow, even though she lived in Calgary for years and was even briefly a Calgary school trustee before getting the entire school board fired.

[Benjamin Frank]

These are the redistributed votes:

Danielle Smith
1st ballot: 34,949
6th ballot: 42,423
--------------------
7.474

Travis Toews
1st ballot: 24,831
6th ballot: 36,480
--------------------
11,649

19,123 (not including those who didn't vote on subsequent ballots)
Travis Toews received 60.9% of the voting redistributed ballots.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Keep in mind that Smith doesn't have a seat in the legislature. With her relatively close margin of victory, I think she'll have a hard time pushing caucus to table a sovereignty act while she's on the outside. She's said that she will run for a by-election, but I could also see an early election at this point.

The UCP MLA in in Calgary-Elbow has resigned, a riding the NDP has a good chance to pick up and have something of a star candidate, Samir Kayande, an analyst at the Pembina Institute and a former oil and gas company executive.

Danielle Smith has already said that she won't call a byelection in this riding, but wants to run in a byelection in Southern Alberta, but not in Calgary-Elbow, even though she lived in Calgary for years and was even briefly a Calgary school trustee before getting the entire school board fired.

The tradition is for major parties to step down when a leader is seeking a seat, but in today's climate, I can't see that tradition being held, least of all by the ABNDP for Danielle Smith in a winnable riding. And I don't think Danielle Smith would risk her first act as premier being a by-election loss.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

These are the redistributed votes:

Danielle Smith
1st ballot: 34,949
6th ballot: 42,423
--------------------
7.474

Todd Loewen
1st ballot: 24,831
6th ballot: 36,480
--------------------
11,649

19,123 (not including those who didn't vote on subsequent ballots)
Todd Loewen received 60.9% of the voting redistributed ballots.

Travis Toews* not Todd Loewen

[Benjamin Frank]

These are the redistributed votes:

Danielle Smith
1st ballot: 34,949
6th ballot: 42,423
--------------------
7.474

Todd Loewen
1st ballot: 24,831
6th ballot: 36,480
--------------------
11,649

19,123 (not including those who didn't vote on subsequent ballots)
Todd Loewen received 60.9% of the voting redistributed ballots.

Travis Toews* not Todd Loewen

Oops, my bad. Will fix.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

These are the redistributed votes:

Danielle Smith
1st ballot: 34,949
6th ballot: 42,423
--------------------
7.474

Todd Loewen
1st ballot: 24,831
6th ballot: 36,480
--------------------
11,649

19,123 (not including those who didn't vote on subsequent ballots)
Todd Loewen received 60.9% of the voting redistributed ballots.

Travis Toews* not Todd Loewen

Oops, my bad. Will fix.

Both middle-aged white guys from Grande Prairie with an ostentatiously German use of vowels, can't blame ya

[Benjamin Frank]

Keep in mind that Smith doesn't have a seat in the legislature. With her relatively close margin of victory, I think she'll have a hard time pushing caucus to table a sovereignty act while she's on the outside. She's said that she will run for a by-election, but I could also see an early election at this point.

The UCP MLA in in Calgary-Elbow has resigned, a riding the NDP has a good chance to pick up and have something of a star candidate, Samir Kayande, an analyst at the Pembina Institute and a former oil and gas company executive.

Danielle Smith has already said that she won't call a byelection in this riding, but wants to run in a byelection in Southern Alberta, but not in Calgary-Elbow, even though she lived in Calgary for years and was even briefly a Calgary school trustee before getting the entire school board fired.

The tradition is for major parties to step down when a leader is seeking a seat, but in today's climate, I can't see that tradition being held, least of all by the ABNDP for Danielle Smith in a winnable riding. And I don't think Danielle Smith would risk her first act as premier being a by-election loss.

The NDP also has a tradition though of not abiding by this tradition going back to the days when it was the CCF. Famously, CCFER Joe Noseworthy defeated former federal PC leader Arthur Meighan who was attempting a comeback.

In 1990 or 1991, the NDP also came relatively close to defeating Jean Chretien in New Brunswick when he ran there in a byelection.

I don't think anybody has a problem with Smith not running in this riding, even though it's already available, I think the problem is that she'll cause and call a byelection for herself, but not for the people of Calgary-Elbow.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Keep in mind that Smith doesn't have a seat in the legislature. With her relatively close margin of victory, I think she'll have a hard time pushing caucus to table a sovereignty act while she's on the outside. She's said that she will run for a by-election, but I could also see an early election at this point.

The UCP MLA in in Calgary-Elbow has resigned, a riding the NDP has a good chance to pick up and have something of a star candidate, Samir Kayande, an analyst at the Pembina Institute and a former oil and gas company executive.

Danielle Smith has already said that she won't call a byelection in this riding, but wants to run in a byelection in Southern Alberta, but not in Calgary-Elbow, even though she lived in Calgary for years and was even briefly a Calgary school trustee before getting the entire school board fired.

The tradition is for major parties to step down when a leader is seeking a seat, but in today's climate, I can't see that tradition being held, least of all by the ABNDP for Danielle Smith in a winnable riding. And I don't think Danielle Smith would risk her first act as premier being a by-election loss.

The NDP also has a tradition though of not abiding by this tradition going back to the days when it was the CCF. Famously, CCFER Joe Noseworthy defeated former federal PC leader Arthur Meighan who was attempting a comeback.

In 1990 or 1991, the NDP also came relatively close to defeating Jean Chretien in New Brunswick when he ran there in a byelection.

I don't think anybody has a problem with Smith not running in this riding, even though it's already available, I think the problem is that she'll cause and call a byelection for herself, but not for the people of Calgary-Elbow.

She'll probably call both by-elections at the same time. Still seven more months until the writ is scheduled

[Хahar 🤔]

Keep in mind that Smith doesn't have a seat in the legislature. With her relatively close margin of victory, I think she'll have a hard time pushing caucus to table a sovereignty act while she's on the outside. She's said that she will run for a by-election, but I could also see an early election at this point.

The UCP MLA in in Calgary-Elbow has resigned, a riding the NDP has a good chance to pick up and have something of a star candidate, Samir Kayande, an analyst at the Pembina Institute and a former oil and gas company executive.

Danielle Smith has already said that she won't call a byelection in this riding, but wants to run in a byelection in Southern Alberta, but not in Calgary-Elbow, even though she lived in Calgary for years and was even briefly a Calgary school trustee before getting the entire school board fired.

The tradition is for major parties to step down when a leader is seeking a seat, but in today's climate, I can't see that tradition being held, least of all by the ABNDP for Danielle Smith in a winnable riding. And I don't think Danielle Smith would risk her first act as premier being a by-election loss.

I am not aware of this tradition. All parties contested the Calgary-Lougheed by-election in 2017 when Jason Kenney sought a seat. All parties contested the Calgary-Foothills by-election in 2014 when Jim Prentice sought a seat. All parties contested the Edmonton-McClung by-election in 1998 when Nancy MacBeth sought a seat. All parties contested the Edmonton-Whitemud by-election in 1985 when Don Getty sought a seat.

That is every time in Alberta since the end of the Second World War that either the premier or the leader of the opposition has sought to enter the legislature. At none of those elections did any party represented in the legislature fail to nominate a candidate.

[Benjamin Frank]

Keep in mind that Smith doesn't have a seat in the legislature. With her relatively close margin of victory, I think she'll have a hard time pushing caucus to table a sovereignty act while she's on the outside. She's said that she will run for a by-election, but I could also see an early election at this point.

The UCP MLA in in Calgary-Elbow has resigned, a riding the NDP has a good chance to pick up and have something of a star candidate, Samir Kayande, an analyst at the Pembina Institute and a former oil and gas company executive.

Danielle Smith has already said that she won't call a byelection in this riding, but wants to run in a byelection in Southern Alberta, but not in Calgary-Elbow, even though she lived in Calgary for years and was even briefly a Calgary school trustee before getting the entire school board fired.

The tradition is for major parties to step down when a leader is seeking a seat, but in today's climate, I can't see that tradition being held, least of all by the ABNDP for Danielle Smith in a winnable riding. And I don't think Danielle Smith would risk her first act as premier being a by-election loss.

The NDP also has a tradition though of not abiding by this tradition going back to the days when it was the CCF. Famously, CCFER Joe Noseworthy defeated former federal PC leader Arthur Meighan who was attempting a comeback.

In 1990 or 1991, the NDP also came relatively close to defeating Jean Chretien in New Brunswick when he ran there in a byelection.

I don't think anybody has a problem with Smith not running in this riding, even though it's already available, I think the problem is that she'll cause and call a byelection for herself, but not for the people of Calgary-Elbow.

She'll probably call both by-elections at the same time. Still seven more months until the writ is scheduled

She's already said she wants a byelection for herself, but won't call one in the Calgary-Elbow riding. Like Liz Truss tried to be, Smith seems to not be for turning.  I'm sure she might regard even backing down on this as an unacceptable concession.

Theoretically she does have an argument to make, and I'm sure her supporters would parrot it: there aren't a lot of cost savings to holding two seperate byelections on the same day, and while it's important to have the Premier in the legislature, a few months for the people of Calgary-Elbow to go without representation isn't necessarily worth the cost.

in Calgary-Elbow, it makes sense for the NDP to go after her for the byelection double standard, but for the rest of Alberta, the obvious argument is that she's afraid she can't even hold onto a UCP riding in Calgary.

https://twitter.com/bcshaffer/status/1577668477220925446

Anyway, enough spelling mistakes from me (I corrected the one/won I saw.) I'm punchy right now, so that's enough for now.

[Benjamin Frank]

One last point, I mentioned like Liz Truss, that Danielle Smith has been far right on economics, expounding trickle down/Reaganomics during her time working for the Alberta chapter of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business, including, as was circulated, writing an article shilling for 'big tobacco' that used research provided by 'big tobacco' (it was titled something like: Is moderate smoking beneficial for your health?) Answer from her: Yes, Answer from actual scientists: NO.

I believe she continued promoting those same views until Trump was elected when she switched to a more populist anti free trade agenda.

However, she has at least been well trained on Reaganomics as she does have a B.A in economics (as did Ronald Reagan.)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Keep in mind that Smith doesn't have a seat in the legislature. With her relatively close margin of victory, I think she'll have a hard time pushing caucus to table a sovereignty act while she's on the outside. She's said that she will run for a by-election, but I could also see an early election at this point.

The UCP MLA in in Calgary-Elbow has resigned, a riding the NDP has a good chance to pick up and have something of a star candidate, Samir Kayande, an analyst at the Pembina Institute and a former oil and gas company executive.

Danielle Smith has already said that she won't call a byelection in this riding, but wants to run in a byelection in Southern Alberta, but not in Calgary-Elbow, even though she lived in Calgary for years and was even briefly a Calgary school trustee before getting the entire school board fired.

The tradition is for major parties to step down when a leader is seeking a seat, but in today's climate, I can't see that tradition being held, least of all by the ABNDP for Danielle Smith in a winnable riding. And I don't think Danielle Smith would risk her first act as premier being a by-election loss.

I am not aware of this tradition. All parties contested the Calgary-Lougheed by-election in 2017 when Jason Kenney sought a seat. All parties contested the Calgary-Foothills by-election in 2014 when Jim Prentice sought a seat. All parties contested the Edmonton-McClung by-election in 1998 when Nancy MacBeth sought a seat. All parties contested the Edmonton-Whitemud by-election in 1985 when Don Getty sought a seat.

That is every time in Alberta since the end of the Second World War that either the premier or the leader of the opposition has sought to enter the legislature. At none of those elections did any party represented in the legislature fail to nominate a candidate.

Interesting. I'm aware of the tradition federally, although as Benjamin Frank pointed out, one that the NDP usually doesn't hold, and I guess it's not a thing in Alberta. The PCs sat out Chretien's 1990 byelection, and the Liberals sat out for both Stockwell Day and Stephen Harper. Although interestingly, Brian Mulroney wasn't given the same treatment. And now that I look into it, neither was Christy Clark when she ran for a byelection in Kelowna in 2013, after the bizarre situation of her winning a majority government but not a seat. But again, the NDP doesn't seem to observe this tradition. The Ontario Liberals didn't sit out for Patrick Brown either.

I was wrong, it's hardly "tradition" if it's only observed selectively.

[Benjamin Frank]

Keep in mind that Smith doesn't have a seat in the legislature. With her relatively close margin of victory, I think she'll have a hard time pushing caucus to table a sovereignty act while she's on the outside. She's said that she will run for a by-election, but I could also see an early election at this point.

The UCP MLA in in Calgary-Elbow has resigned, a riding the NDP has a good chance to pick up and have something of a star candidate, Samir Kayande, an analyst at the Pembina Institute and a former oil and gas company executive.

Danielle Smith has already said that she won't call a byelection in this riding, but wants to run in a byelection in Southern Alberta, but not in Calgary-Elbow, even though she lived in Calgary for years and was even briefly a Calgary school trustee before getting the entire school board fired.

The tradition is for major parties to step down when a leader is seeking a seat, but in today's climate, I can't see that tradition being held, least of all by the ABNDP for Danielle Smith in a winnable riding. And I don't think Danielle Smith would risk her first act as premier being a by-election loss.

I am not aware of this tradition. All parties contested the Calgary-Lougheed by-election in 2017 when Jason Kenney sought a seat. All parties contested the Calgary-Foothills by-election in 2014 when Jim Prentice sought a seat. All parties contested the Edmonton-McClung by-election in 1998 when Nancy MacBeth sought a seat. All parties contested the Edmonton-Whitemud by-election in 1985 when Don Getty sought a seat.

That is every time in Alberta since the end of the Second World War that either the premier or the leader of the opposition has sought to enter the legislature. At none of those elections did any party represented in the legislature fail to nominate a candidate.

Interesting. I'm aware of the tradition federally, although as Benjamin Frank pointed out, one that the NDP usually doesn't hold, and I guess it's not a thing in Alberta. The PCs sat out Chretien's 1990 byelection, and the Liberals sat out for both Stockwell Day and Stephen Harper. Although interestingly, Brian Mulroney wasn't given the same treatment. And now that I look into it, neither was Christy Clark when she ran for a byelection in Kelowna in 2013, after the bizarre situation of her winning a majority government but not a seat. But again, the NDP doesn't seem to observe this tradition. The Ontario Liberals didn't sit out for Patrick Brown either.

I was wrong, it's hardly "tradition" if it's only observed selectively.

It's not common, but it's not unheard of, if that's what you mean by bizarre. I can think of 2 other occassions, but none as recent as Christy Clark. In 1985 in Quebec, Robert Bourassa while winning a massive majority of 99 of 122 ridings, lost his own seat to the P.Q, and in 1989, Don Getty lost reelection to a Liberal in Edmonton-Whitemud.

It's a bit hard to argue since the P.C remained in power continuously for another 30 years, but arguably the beginning of their downfall was the leadership selection of Don Getty and the subsequent election when the P.C lost their dominance in the city of Edmonton. I believe they've only won a majority of seats in the city of Edmonton twice since (once when Ralph Klein won 74 of 83 seats overall, and the other, I believe, when most Alberta Liberals crossed over to vote for Alison Redford in 2012.)

Obviously though, quite a number of Premiers lost their ridings when their party lost reelection: Dave Barrett, Richard Hatfield, Jean Charest...

Interestingly, Dave Barrett in 1975 lost his riding by around 20 votes to some 19 year old unknown, while, in Saskatchewan in 1982, Roy Romanow, the then Attorney General who later became Premier, also lost his riding by around 20 votes to some 19 year old unknown. I believe that both of the 19 year olds also worked as gas station attendants, but I'm not 100% sure about that since the situations are so similar otherwise, I may have just added that detail in.

[adma]

And notoriously, no opposition party stood down for John Tory when he ran for a byelection seat as Ontario PC leader in 2009--and he lost to the Liberals in what ought to have been a "safe" Tory seat...

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

It's not common, but it's not unheard of, if that's what you mean by bizarre. I can think of 2 other occassions, but none as recent as Christy Clark. In 1985 in Quebec, Robert Bourassa while winning a massive majority of 99 of 122 ridings, lost his own seat to the P.Q, and in 1989, Don Getty lost reelection to a Liberal in Edmonton-Whitemud.

It's not unheard of, but it's certainly a rare and strange situation to be in, to lead your party to a majority government but not win a seat for yourself. Nothing a little byelection can't fix, of course, which is what all the people you mentioned did. Major party leaders lose their seats all the time, but rarely when they simultaneously win a majority government. Bourassa was a very unusual situation, for a party to win in a landslide and pick up 57 seats, yet lose the leader's seat. Christy Clark's loss in Vancouver-Point Grey while simultaneously winning a majority wasn't quite so strange, since Vancouver swung left, but the rest of the province did not, even swinging right in some places.

Interestingly, I remember some people throwing around the possibility that in the 2018 Ontario election, the PCs would win a majority while Ford fails to win Etobicoke North. Ostensibly it made sense, considering the PCs finished third with 23% of the vote in that riding in 2014. But I think anyone who knew anything about Toronto politics understood that there wasn't the slightest flicker of a chance that the people of Etobicoke North would elect someone else when Doug Ford was on the ballot.

[adma]

Interestingly, I remember some people throwing around the possibility that in the 2018 Ontario election, the PCs would win a majority while Ford fails to win Etobicoke North. Ostensibly it made sense, considering the PCs finished third with 23% of the vote in that riding in 2014. But I think anyone who knew anything about Toronto politics understood that there wasn't the slightest flicker of a chance that the people of Etobicoke North would elect someone else when Doug Ford was on the ballot.

Other than those who used projection models in the stupidest way imaginable, I really don't think there were many who were projecting a Ford loss *in tandem with* a PC majority.  More often, it was in tandem w/broader PC squelched hopes, together with how, Doug Ford or no Doug Ford, it's by no stretch of the imagination a "natural" Tory riding, as the continued federal electoral record proves...

[Хahar 🤔]

The point that Danielle Smith hammered repeatedly in her speech last night was "the NDP-Liberal alliance" in Ottawa. I think that that's a really strong line of attack; the federal government is quite unpopular and the federal NDP is committed to never opposing it in any way. Now that the Alberta Liberal Party is truly dead, the NDP is the only party in the province with any connection to the government. The fact that the NDP has been in power already and Rachel Notley is a well-known figure makes this tougher for the UCP than it would be otherwise, but if they manage to pull it off next year I think this will be why.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/stephenharper/status/1578242596690092032?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoo...

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Interestingly, I remember some people throwing around the possibility that in the 2018 Ontario election, the PCs would win a majority while Ford fails to win Etobicoke North. Ostensibly it made sense, considering the PCs finished third with 23% of the vote in that riding in 2014. But I think anyone who knew anything about Toronto politics understood that there wasn't the slightest flicker of a chance that the people of Etobicoke North would elect someone else when Doug Ford was on the ballot.

Other than those who used projection models in the stupidest way imaginable, I really don't think there were many who were projecting a Ford loss *in tandem with* a PC majority.  More often, it was in tandem w/broader PC squelched hopes, together with how, Doug Ford or no Doug Ford, it's by no stretch of the imagination a "natural" Tory riding, as the continued federal electoral record proves...

I agree that serious analysts weren't predicting a DoFo loss + PC majority situation, but the "people who use projection models in the stupidest way imaginable" make a lot of noise on social media. My point though was that it was the most recent time that I can recall where such predictions were made.

[mileslunn]

Interestingly, I remember some people throwing around the possibility that in the 2018 Ontario election, the PCs would win a majority while Ford fails to win Etobicoke North. Ostensibly it made sense, considering the PCs finished third with 23% of the vote in that riding in 2014. But I think anyone who knew anything about Toronto politics understood that there wasn't the slightest flicker of a chance that the people of Etobicoke North would elect someone else when Doug Ford was on the ballot.

Etobicoke North in general is not a PC friendly riding, Harper failed to win it in 2011 despite winning big in Ontario.  But anyone who follows municipal politics would know Ford family is very popular there so I have often said it will vote Conservative if candidate has surname Ford, otherwise Liberal.

Other than those who used projection models in the stupidest way imaginable, I really don't think there were many who were projecting a Ford loss *in tandem with* a PC majority.  More often, it was in tandem w/broader PC squelched hopes, together with how, Doug Ford or no Doug Ford, it's by no stretch of the imagination a "natural" Tory riding, as the continued federal electoral record proves...

I agree that serious analysts weren't predicting a DoFo loss + PC majority situation, but the "people who use projection models in the stupidest way imaginable" make a lot of noise on social media. My point though was that it was the most recent time that I can recall where such predictions were made.

[mileslunn]

Wondering if anyone has riding by riding breakdown as I kind of think had system federal Conservatives use been used in Alberta, Toews would have won it.  More than half the population of Alberta lives in either Calgary or Edmonton yet only about 30% of UCP members were from those two cities, rest elsewhere. 

That creates a real problem as outside two cities, UCP is going to win the overwhelming majority of seats no matter what, Edmonton is a lost cause for them.  But Calgary is real battleground and someone like Smith I think would less appealing in Calgary than Toews would be.  If Calgary goes NDP, then UCP loses next election and my gut instinct is it will go NDP.  On one hand, I don't think NDP's economic policies are exactly popular in Calgary so UCP may have a chance, but at same time Calgary is pretty moderate and Smith likely comes across as crazy there.