Israel 2022 election (November 1st)

[mileslunn]

What is most likely outcome?

Bibi wins, which seems very possible.

Current coalition succeeds which seems unlikely unless expand to include Arab List.

Neither get a majority with Arab List holding balance of power making for interesting times.

Also doesn't current coalition include two right wing parties that dislike Bibi so wonder if Likud could win them back with a different leader?

[mileslunn]

Does Israel have exit polls and how quickly will results come in?  Still it seems like no matter who wins, it will be an unstable broad coalition that will be tough to hold together.  But I think Bibi has better odds than Lapid at creating a viable one.

[mileslunn]

I think this is the slowest I've ever seen them count. This is excruciating.

Denmark closed one hour before Israel did and they are now finished with count save Greenland.  Israel barely has anything in.

[mileslunn]

I think better system would be go to first past post or even better IVR like Australia does.  That tends to produce stable governments.  Although I will admit personal bias as generally FTFP popular in countries where done (its why most referendums to change system fail, NZ excepted) while where not in use, it seems few wish to switch to it.

[mileslunn]

How has Netanyahu lasted so long.  Even when parties stay in power a long time, I've found usually after a decade in power, people get tired of person.  Of wealthy countries, I believe Mark Rutte in Netherlands only won who has been in power more than a decade and interestingly enough Netherlands like Israel is very fragmented in terms of parties.

[mileslunn]

Jerusalem:
UTJ 23.8% (+0.2%)
Likud 19.1% (-1.5%)
Shas 18.3% (+2.7%)
RZ 14.2% (+4.9%)
Yesh Atid 7.5% (+1.9%)
Statist 5.3% (-1.4% combined with NH)
Meretz 2.8% (-0.9%)
Labor 2.5% (-1.5%)
JH 1.9% (-4.8%)
YB 1.9% (-0.1%)
Hadash-Ta'al 1% (+0.6% combined in JL)
Balad 0.7% (+0.6% combined in JL)
Ra'am 0.3% (+0.1%)

Tel Aviv-Yafo:
Yesh Atic 32.8% (+10.7%)
Likud 17% (+0.04%)
Statist 11% (-3.9% combined with NH)
Meretz 10.9% (-3.1%)
Labor 9.3% (-5.5%)
RZ 4.5% (+2.8%
Shas 4.3% (+0.7%)
YB 3.3% (-0.4%)
Balad 1.5% (+1% combined with Hadash-Ta'al)
Hadash-Ta'al 1.5% (+1% combined with Balad)
UTJ 0.8% (+0.07%)
JH 0.7% (-2.9%)
Ra'am 0.7% (+0.2%)

Huge contrast although not surprising.  Seems like Jerusalem had close to 75% go for Bibi bloc and quite right wing while Tel Aviv Bibi bloc got only around 25% roughly so very much a mix of centrist and left wing.  But no surprise.  Having been to both cities, Jerusalem struck me as a very religious city while Tel Aviv quite secular.