Israel 2022 election (November 1st)

[danny]

Smotric party is going to have primaries as well. Dov Halbertal, a anti-zionist Haredi announced he's running against Smotric for laughs.

Dov Halbertal Used to be very left wing, but last year he changed his mind and now his opinions seem to be mostly in line with the rest of the Religious Zionist party.

[danny]

Upcoming August primaries timeline to determine the list:

9th: Labour
10th: Likud
23rd: Religious Zionism, but only the Smotrich part of the list, the result will probably be combined with Jewish Strength (Ben Gvir) and Noam (but judging from previous elections, they will probably wait until the last possible moment to come to an agreement). The date to register with the party has just passed, and there will be 24,113 potential voters.

The deadline to submit lists is 1 September.

[danny]

Considering Bibi's age (he is 73), has he made any statements about serving a full term if he becomes PM again?

As far as I know, Bibi has made no indication that he plans to retire any time soon. Although even if he served a full term he would still be younger than Biden when he entered office and as old as Lula is now, so he wouldn't be unusually old, and I haven't heard of him having any serious health issues.

[danny]

Does Israel have exit polls and how quickly will results come in?  Still it seems like no matter who wins, it will be an unstable broad coalition that will be tough to hold together.  But I think Bibi has better odds than Lapid at creating a viable one.

The exit polls come out at 10PM local time, the moment the polls close. However, you only get the top line numbers, so they become completely obsolete a few hours later when we have the real results.

[danny]

Ah, right. Just saw what you posted above. That high turnout could benefit the rightwing. And, any reports on Arab turnout?

From my experience in previous elections, turnout reports for specific sectors are unreliable. If you look for rumours, you will just encounter completely contradictory reports.

Also, we don't even know if turnout will remain high by the end of the day, there is rain forecast for the afternoon, so it's possible  some people decided to vote earlier than usual to avoid it.

[danny]

Ah, right. Just saw what you posted above. That high turnout could benefit the rightwing. And, any reports on Arab turnout?

From my experience in previous elections, turnout reports for specific sectors are unreliable. If you look for rumours, you will just encounter completely contradictory reports.

Also, we don't even know if turnout will remain high by the end of the day, there is rain forecast for the afternoon, so it's possible  some people decided to vote earlier than usual to avoid it.

I mean anecdotal stuff can be unreliable but because Israel is a segregated society it's very easy to determine who is voting simply based on city or neighborhood--data that is in fact reliable and accurate. If Bnai Brak has extremely high turnout you don't have to he a genius to know who that benefits even if it's less clear precisely which of two or three parties those votes are going to.

In theory this is true, but in practice we don't have definitive turnout numbers by town, so we are left with one journalist saying Arab turnout is up and another that it's down without knowing where they are getting it from.

[danny]

Turnout at 4pm is 47.5%, still the highest since 1999.

[danny]

Turnout at 4pm is 47.5%, still the highest since 1999.

Are there any regional patterns of this turnout surge to give us a sense if these are pro-Likud or anti-Likud voters?

The only official numbers are those released by the central election committee, but they only release nationwide numbers. we won't have turnout numbers for localities until we get the election results anyway.

[danny]

Hi all,

Does anyone have useful links for TV coverage, official results, live result maps, etc?

Thanks so much,

DC

There's Hebrew coverage here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MyvMzLjrQbA. I doubt if there will by English coverage.

Links to official results and maps will only be posted after the polls close.

[danny]

Turnout at 6pm is 57.7%, still the highest since 1999.

[danny]

Exit polls:

61-59 in favor of Bibi

God... here we go again.

There were 4 exit polls, 2 have 62 for Bibi and 2 have 61.

[danny]

The first 3.6K votes have come in: https://votes25.bechirot.gov.il/nationalresults

Yesh Atid: 27.95%
Likud: 15.06%
National Camp: 13.83%
RZ: 11.98%
Labour: 9.03%
Meretz: 7.46%
UTJ: 5.65%
JH: 2.53%
Shas: 2.29%
Beitenu: 1.74%

[danny]

If you want to know what the current results would mean in terms of seats (including vote sharing agreements), here is the link: https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/reporting/762d0edf-a991-4b30-bf18-65cdae97b32a/page/D1W6C?s=kTuBgTDL4xc
currently it's:
Yesh Atid: 37
Likud: 20
National Unity: 18
RZP: 16
Labour: 12
Meretz: 10
UTJ: 7

[danny]

12.5K votes counted:
Likud: 23.32%
RZP: 20.48%
Yesh Atid: 18.72%
National Camp: 10.47%
Labour: 6.69%
Shas: 6.09%
Meretz: 5.25%
----3.25% threshold-----
UTJ: 2.88%
JH: 1.75%
Beitenu: 1.56%
Hadash: 0.59%
Balad: 0.54%
RAAM: 0.14%

[danny]

A results map: https://www.ynet.co.il/news/category/44113

[danny]

66K votes counted:
Likud: 27.22%
Yesh Atid: 17.98%
RZP: 13.73%
National unity: 9.86%
Shas: 6.92%
Beitenu: 4.98%
Labour: 4.56%
Meretz: 3.26%
UTJ: 3.26%
----3.25% threshold-----
RAAM: 2.31%
Hadash: 1.53%
JH: 1.38%
Balad: 1.28%

[danny]

258K votes counted:
Likud: 24.73%
Yesh Atid: 16.6%
RZP: 10.72%
National unity: 8.76%
Shas: 8.45%
UTJ: 6.43%
Beitenu: 4.88%
Hadash: 3.9%
Labour: 3.68%
RAAM: 3.53%
----3.25% threshold-----
Meretz: 2.98%
Balad: 2.69%
JH: 1.13%

[danny]

459K votes counted:
Likud: 25%
Yesh Atid: 16.23%
RZP: 10.98%
Shas: 9.28%
National unity: 8.44%
UTJ: 7%
Beitenu: 4.63%
Hadash: 3.54%
RAAM: 3.49%
Labour: 3.39%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 2.71%
Balad: 2.64%
JH: 1.22%

[danny]

A lot of Jerusalem is in. A lot of the settlements are in. A lot of Haifa is in. But there's very little from Tel Aviv and Bnai Brak, which should help Meretz get our of danger and boost Haredi margins. The question that the whole thing hinges on is what happens with Balad and I can't really tell from what's in whether they're going to make it. Certainly a lot of left wing vote still out bit I'm not sure about Arab votes.

About 90% of the vote is still out, every party still has plenty left to count.

[danny]

How does the current vote translate to seats? Is there a seat calculator?

https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/reporting/762d0edf-a991-4b30-bf18-65cdae97b32a/page/D1W6C?s=kTuBgTDL4xc
Likud: 33
Yesh Atid: 21
RZP:14
Shas: 13
National Unity: 11
UTJ: 9
Beitenu: 6
Hadash: 5
Labour: 4
RAAM: 4

[danny]

1.001M votes counted:
Likud: 24.28%
Yesh Atid: 16.42%
RZP: 11.07%
Shas: 9.63%
National unity: 8.56%
UTJ: 7.86%
Beitenu: 4.55%
Hadash: 3.36%
Labour: 3.29%
----3.25% threshold----
RAAM: 2.96%
Meretz: 2.7%
Balad: 2.62%
JH: 1.27%

[danny]

Live seat results in English: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iKBuklUpq5MkgJTJ_UzQNsEjEIEpKR9FK0oFSeXDQmg/edit#gid=835504410

[danny]

Live seat results in English: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iKBuklUpq5MkgJTJ_UzQNsEjEIEpKR9FK0oFSeXDQmg/edit#gid=835504410

By my count Yesh Atid+NU+Shas+Labor+Chadash-Tal+Yisrael Beiteinu is 61. If Netanyahu doesn't have the votes and said parties vote against ousting Lapid I think he remains in office.

Shas are a core part of the Netanyahu bloc.

[danny]

3.43M votes counted
Likud: 23.77%
Yesh Atid: 17.44%
RZP: 10.78%
Shas: 8.94%
National unity: 8.88%
UTJ: 6.80%
Beitenu: 4.38%
Ra'am: 3.86%
Labour: 3.48%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.33%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.05%
Balad: 2.69%
JH: 1.17%

Bunch of Southern Arab vote came in strong, putting Ra'am above threshold. There's still some ~80k uncounted votes left in Tel Aviv that will probably save Meretz.

Is Balad still in this?

There are still a bunch of Arab Galilee towns that have no results yet, so I wouldn't rule it out, but it seems unlikely to me.

[danny]

Who exactly are the swing voters who swung the election towards Bibi?

Here is an attempt at a vote transfer analysis: https://harelc.github.io/elections-vote-transfer/.
The gist of it seems to be a combination of new voters and taking some former Yamina and New Hope voters, and of course an anti Bibi party(ies?) falling just below the threshold.