Israel 2022 election (November 1st)

[Estrella]

Likud, Shas, UTJ and NZP polls around 60 seats. Add Yamina and Bibi is king Again. Add New Hope and or YB and we have around 75 seats.

Yamina will not run alone, NH as well. We will most likely see Yamina and NH merge with Kahana leading Yamina. And a slimmer option is for a triple merge with YB. neither of the three would join a Likud coalition under normal circumstances.

The alarmism is juvenile. Bibi didn't have a majority and he's not going to.

First poll this morning:
Likud 36
YA 20
NZ 10
B&W 8
Shas 7
Yamina 7
Labour 7
UTJ 6
JL 6
YB 5
NH 4
Raam 4
Meretz 0

A bit of an over poll for the coalition I guess. But this party map won't live to October. Beyond the centre-right merge, Meretz and Labour would have to decide their future. UTJ might split. JL might split. And so much more.

The threshold might be lowered to 2.5% again.

Isn't that the wrong way to resolve a fragmented Parliament? I mean, a 5% threshold might be the best course of action, right now.

My sweet summer child, would Israel have ended up here if their politicians were inclined to follow the best course of action?

[Estrella]

Sorry I've been out of the loop for a while (there's only so many depressing elections I can focus on at any given time) but what the f**k is the Statist Party?

A party for people who aren't left wing in any way but voted Labor most of their lives out of tribalism, and/or an attempt to give patrician retired generals, sleazy populist grifters and other such centrist darlings some ideological legs to stand on, and/or a Lincoln Project-esque halfway house for people who are Likudniks but Not Like That.

[Estrella]

Amazing what a 3.25% threshold vs a 3.0% threshold makes.

So it was previously 3% then? Why the change if so??

It wasn't, it's just 3% would be a much more sensible number.

Until the elections for the 13th Knesset in 1992, a party had to receive at least 1% of the votes in order to secure representation in parliament. Leading up to those elections, the electoral threshold was raised to 1.5%. In May 2004 (16th Knesset) the electoral threshold was raised to 2%, and on March 11, 2014 (19th Knesset), the threshold was increased to 3.25%.

[Estrella]

Ironic how Ben Gvir managed to unite settlers and non-settler, non-Orthodox voters in a way Bennett tried but never could. Of course, the non-settlers Bennett was aiming for were a very different segment of society than the ones Ben Gvir got...

Who was Bennett aiming for? IIRC in 2013 he was chasing disappointed middle-class voters (Likud-voting Mizrahi social climbers?), like a right-wing mirror image of Lapid. Is that correct, and could it have worked?