Israel 2022 election (November 1st)

[Oryxslayer]

https://www.israelhayom.com/2022/08/16/head-of-far-right-otzma-yehudit-party-announces-solo-run-in-upcoming-election/

It seems Otzma is going to run separately. 

Good, though they might have the votes now to dance closer to the threshold,  which would be bad.

[Oryxslayer]

https://www.israelhayom.com/2022/08/16/head-of-far-right-otzma-yehudit-party-announces-solo-run-in-upcoming-election/

It seems Otzma is going to run separately. 

Good, though they might have the votes now to dance closer to the threshold,  which would be bad.

I recall back in 2019 Netanyahu got them to run on a bigger list of Religious Right parties exactly because of concerns of wasted votes. 

Yeah, but that's more or less what RZ is right now.

[Oryxslayer]

12.5K votes counted:
Likud: 23.32%
RZP: 20.48%
Yesh Atid: 18.72%
National Camp: 10.47%
Labour: 6.69%
Shas: 6.09%
Meretz: 5.25%
----3.25% threshold-----
UTJ: 2.88%
JH: 1.75%
Beitenu: 1.56%
Hadash: 0.59%
Balad: 0.54%
RAAM: 0.14%

How you know things are slow: Jerusalem should be biasing the count at this point for the Haredim based on past count tends, but it's not there so the Settlements which previously came in alongside her, are instead the source of bias.

[Oryxslayer]

A lot of Jerusalem is in. A lot of the settlements are in. A lot of Haifa is in. But there's very little from Tel Aviv and Bnai Brak, which should help Meretz get our of danger and boost Haredi margins. The question that the whole thing hinges on is what happens with Balad and I can't really tell from what's in whether they're going to make it. Certainly a lot of left wing vote still out bit I'm not sure about Arab votes.

About 90% of the vote is still out, every party still has plenty left to count.

Yes, but as of his response things are starting to follow the normal trendline just much slower. I guess high turnout must be slowing everything.

Jerusalem should have 255Kish votes by the end. Currently has 65,159

Tel Aviv should have 270Kish votes by the end. Currently has 1.7K - this though is normal for this point in the count.

Hafia should have 140Kish votes by the end. Currently has 55,325

Rishon L'Tzyion should have 140Kish by the end. Currently 8K

Petah Tikvah should have 130Kish by the end. Currently 31,529

Netanya should have 107Kish but the end. Currently 28,883

Ashdod should have 110Kish buy the end. Currently his I think 0.

Those are all the places with above 100K from last time.

[Oryxslayer]

What about the Balad strongholds then? Are they over- or underreporting so far?

The Arab-majority areas are mostly smaller, so such a comparison is less intuitive. Nazareth though is a bigger community, its currently at 6,719 of 25Kish if we were approximating from the last election. Though Arab turnout can spike or collapse wildly, and turnout may be high based on the hourly estimates. 

[Oryxslayer]

Live seat results in English: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iKBuklUpq5MkgJTJ_UzQNsEjEIEpKR9FK0oFSeXDQmg/edit#gid=835504410

By my count Yesh Atid+NU+Shas+Labor+Chadash-Tal+Yisrael Beiteinu is 61. If Netanyahu doesn't have the votes and said parties vote against ousting Lapid I think he remains in office.

Shas are a core part of the Netanyahu bloc.

This. Also, you can't really tell whats going on here seat-wise until much later cause we are at the approximate point in the count where the geographic biases (mainly in favor of the Haredi) are at their strongest. The most striking example of course being Tel Aviv essentially at 0.2% votes reporting, but thats only one example - and a normal one based on past election counts.

[Oryxslayer]

There seems to be around 800,000 ballots left to count. Any idea where they may come from?

It's mostly the double envelopes left now. So soldiers, prisoners, special disability polling places, hospitals and embassy workers.

Last time, the double envelope category in the results sheet - which might not have all of the votes, some might be in other areas - gave Meretz 5% of the vote, outperforming their national results. So they still have a chance. The Arab parties combined though got less of this category then Meretz, so a lot would need to break in Balad's favor.