Israel 2022 election (November 1st)

[Tekken_Guy]

Will a 61-62 seat Bibi government be stable or will it fall apart quickly like the last one?

[Tekken_Guy]

3.43M votes counted
Likud: 23.77%
Yesh Atid: 17.44%
RZP: 10.78%
Shas: 8.94%
National unity: 8.88%
UTJ: 6.80%
Beitenu: 4.38%
Ra'am: 3.86%
Labour: 3.48%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.33%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.05%
Balad: 2.69%
JH: 1.17%

Bunch of Southern Arab vote came in strong, putting Ra'am above threshold. There's still some ~80k uncounted votes left in Tel Aviv that will probably save Meretz.

Is Balad still in this?

[Tekken_Guy]

3.43M votes counted
Likud: 23.77%
Yesh Atid: 17.44%
RZP: 10.78%
Shas: 8.94%
National unity: 8.88%
UTJ: 6.80%
Beitenu: 4.38%
Ra'am: 3.86%
Labour: 3.48%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.33%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.05%
Balad: 2.69%
JH: 1.17%

Bunch of Southern Arab vote came in strong, putting Ra'am above threshold. There's still some ~80k uncounted votes left in Tel Aviv that will probably save Meretz.

Is Balad still in this?

Longshot. They'll need 4% of the double envelopes by my math. Meretz would need 3.5%

So does Bibi have it in the bag?

[Tekken_Guy]

3.43M votes counted
Likud: 23.77%
Yesh Atid: 17.44%
RZP: 10.78%
Shas: 8.94%
National unity: 8.88%
UTJ: 6.80%
Beitenu: 4.38%
Ra'am: 3.86%
Labour: 3.48%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.33%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.05%
Balad: 2.69%
JH: 1.17%

Bunch of Southern Arab vote came in strong, putting Ra'am above threshold. There's still some ~80k uncounted votes left in Tel Aviv that will probably save Meretz.

Is Balad still in this?

Longshot. They'll need 4% of the double envelopes by my math. Meretz would need 3.5%

So does Bibi have it in the bag?

I can't see him with less than 62-3, even if Meretz passes the threshold. The question is how big the majority will be.
So yeah. he has it in the bag.

Is it likely the government collapses and we get a sixth election? Or will this be the last election for a while?

[Tekken_Guy]

3.84M votes counted
Likud: 23.04%
Yesh Atid: 17.99%
RZP: 10.27%
National unity: 8.94%
Shas: 8.44%
UTJ: 6.37%
Beitenu: 4.27%
Ra'am: 4.25%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.94%
Labour: 3.60%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.23%
Balad: 3.07%
JH: 1.17%

Very favorable drop for the anti Bibi bloc. Looks like that was most of Tel Aviv though, so Meretz is walking the tightrope here. The Haredim parties have maxed out and will only go down now.

Still votes in Tel Aviv and Haifa left. Meretz will pull above just barely

What's still out for Balad?

[Tekken_Guy]

3.84M votes counted
Likud: 23.04%
Yesh Atid: 17.99%
RZP: 10.27%
National unity: 8.94%
Shas: 8.44%
UTJ: 6.37%
Beitenu: 4.27%
Ra'am: 4.25%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.94%
Labour: 3.60%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.23%
Balad: 3.07%
JH: 1.17%

Very favorable drop for the anti Bibi bloc. Looks like that was most of Tel Aviv though, so Meretz is walking the tightrope here. The Haredim parties have maxed out and will only go down now.

Still votes in Tel Aviv and Haifa left. Meretz will pull above just barely

What's still out for Balad?

Marginal votes in Tel Aviv and Haifa. small chunks in remote Arab villages. a fraction of the double envelopes.

They're out. sorry

Is there a chance Meretz still falls short?

[Tekken_Guy]

3.84M votes counted
Likud: 23.04%
Yesh Atid: 17.99%
RZP: 10.27%
National unity: 8.94%
Shas: 8.44%
UTJ: 6.37%
Beitenu: 4.27%
Ra'am: 4.25%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.94%
Labour: 3.60%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.23%
Balad: 3.07%
JH: 1.17%

Very favorable drop for the anti Bibi bloc. Looks like that was most of Tel Aviv though, so Meretz is walking the tightrope here. The Haredim parties have maxed out and will only go down now.

Still votes in Tel Aviv and Haifa left. Meretz will pull above just barely

What's still out for Balad?

Marginal votes in Tel Aviv and Haifa. small chunks in remote Arab villages. a fraction of the double envelopes.

They're out. sorry

Is there a chance Meretz still falls short?

yes, but getting slimmer. It's going to break 0.05% on either side

Who exactly are the swing voters who swung the election towards Bibi?

[Tekken_Guy]

So basically, even if Meretz get the 3.85% of the double envelopes they require, Bibi would have 62-3 seats. I assume the coalition talks would go quite fast, although Herzog will try to float some sort of unity government.

The opposition needs to realign to prepare themselves for the coming battle. YA and B&W need to merge into a big-tent centrist party. Michaeli needs to be shown the door, and the new leader of Labour to invite most of Meretz to a new SD party (Galon also has to resign).
The Arab parties need to decide what they want to do as political entities. But I don't think there's any viable alternative bar for creating one big list again.

Afterward, we need to build a ground game. Parliamentary and street action to combat the government. Protests, strikes, and counteractions.

Will there be a sixth election soon if things fall apart for Bibi or will this be the last for a while?

[Tekken_Guy]

So basically, even if Meretz get the 3.85% of the double envelopes they require, Bibi would have 62-3 seats. I assume the coalition talks would go quite fast, although Herzog will try to float some sort of unity government.

The opposition needs to realign to prepare themselves for the coming battle. YA and B&W need to merge into a big-tent centrist party. Michaeli needs to be shown the door, and the new leader of Labour to invite most of Meretz to a new SD party (Galon also has to resign).
The Arab parties need to decide what they want to do as political entities. But I don't think there's any viable alternative bar for creating one big list again.

Afterward, we need to build a ground game. Parliamentary and street action to combat the government. Protests, strikes, and counteractions.

Will there be a sixth election soon if things fall apart for Bibi or will this be the last for a while?

I believe this government will hold for at least 2 years

So what exactly went wrong for the anti-Bibi camp?

[Tekken_Guy]

So basically, even if Meretz get the 3.85% of the double envelopes they require, Bibi would have 62-3 seats. I assume the coalition talks would go quite fast, although Herzog will try to float some sort of unity government.

The opposition needs to realign to prepare themselves for the coming battle. YA and B&W need to merge into a big-tent centrist party. Michaeli needs to be shown the door, and the new leader of Labour to invite most of Meretz to a new SD party (Galon also has to resign).
The Arab parties need to decide what they want to do as political entities. But I don't think there's any viable alternative bar for creating one big list again.

Afterward, we need to build a ground game. Parliamentary and street action to combat the government. Protests, strikes, and counteractions.

Will there be a sixth election soon if things fall apart for Bibi or will this be the last for a while?

I believe this government will hold for at least 2 years

So what exactly went wrong for the anti-Bibi camp?

In the election? poorly organized, spread out over too many parties, with very little enthusiasm.
In government? Yamina was a very poor faction Bennett had very little influence over. Had he picked more loyal men, the project could have endured quite longer.


Worth noting that when you deduct all the nonsense parties, the pro-Bibi bloc got 50.05% while the anti-Bibi bloc got 49.95%. The threshold gave Bibi the win

Anyway will Meretz make it?

[Tekken_Guy]

Also none of the polls showed the Bibi bloc getting near 65, most had them right at a bare majority.

[Tekken_Guy]

Also none of the polls showed the Bibi bloc getting near 65, most had them right at a bare majority.

The polls had Meretz passing. With such tiny differences, the polls were pretty damn accurate.

Yet not a single poll predicted Meretz wouldn’t make it. I wonder if higher-than-expected turnout from right wingers pulled the threshold above Meretz.

[Tekken_Guy]

OK how long until the next inevitable election?

[Tekken_Guy]

4.215M votes counted

Likud: 23.33%
Yesh Atid: 17.92%
RZP: 10.31%
National unity: 8.92%
Shas: 8.39%
UTJ: 6.13%
Beitenu: 4.36%
Ra'am: 4.34%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.93%
Labour: 3.56%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.19%
Balad: 3.03%
JH: 1.16%

Over under on Meretz making it?

[Tekken_Guy]

What exactly changes depending on Meretz entering or not?

[Tekken_Guy]

What exactly changes depending on Meretz entering or not?

Right now, a 0.1% increase in vote would increase their seats from 0 to 4.

I meant what changes with the new Bibi government?

[Tekken_Guy]

What went wrong for the anti-Bibi bloc in Israel?