Israel 2022 election (November 1st)

[Mike88]

Likud, Shas, UTJ and NZP polls around 60 seats. Add Yamina and Bibi is king Again. Add New Hope and or YB and we have around 75 seats.

Yamina will not run alone, NH as well. We will most likely see Yamina and NH merge with Kahana leading Yamina. And a slimmer option is for a triple merge with YB. neither of the three would join a Likud coalition under normal circumstances.

The alarmism is juvenile. Bibi didn't have a majority and he's not going to.

First poll this morning:
Likud 36
YA 20
NZ 10
B&W 8
Shas 7
Yamina 7
Labour 7
UTJ 6
JL 6
YB 5
NH 4
Raam 4
Meretz 0

A bit of an over poll for the coalition I guess. But this party map won't live to October. Beyond the centre-right merge, Meretz and Labour would have to decide their future. UTJ might split. JL might split. And so much more.

The threshold might be lowered to 2.5% again.

Isn't that the wrong way to resolve a fragmented Parliament? I mean, a 5% threshold might be the best course of action, right now.

[Mike88]

My sweet summer child, would Israel have ended up here if their politicians were inclined to follow the best course of action?

You have a point, to be fair.

Most parties care more about survival than resolving the crisis. Anyhow, after 2019A the risk became quite salient and even if the bar raises parties will ad hoc merge to yield the same standstill.

I also don't think a fragmented society like Israel should have such a high threshold that would prevents a lot of groups from being politically represented. Furthermore, the political standoff is a deep struggle that won't be resolved by twicking election laws or procedure. One side must come out of this victorious and ungracious in victory

Well, mergers or electoral coalitions between parties are benefited by the D'Hondt method. I mean, if Likud+rightwing parties form a coalition/merger and then YA+Labour+other centrist parties also form a coalition, you would have 2 big blocs that would get a pretty good electoral mandate, and even if they don't get a majority, smaller parties that may pass the threshold could become crucial and the outcomes would become clearer. And in terms of party survival, perhaps negotiating seats between them may be a safer bet than risking an electoral campaign and they elect zero mandates. (I know this is only a dream, but in other countries this would be a logical step.)

[Mike88]

Unsurprising, but I see Lapid's campaign strategy is definitely going to be 'I am the Prime Minister '.

Lapid isn't going to campaign much himself. He's going to be antithetic to Bibi and act like he's PM and too busy for elections.
The main aim is to get YA to 20-25 seats area whilst keeping Meretz and Labour on 4 seats at most, or best still merge, and more importantly, keep B&W under 10 seats.
A big merger in the centre-right that will put Gantz with 15 seats would be his nightmare.

Incumbency, nowadays, is quite important. Who knows, maybe Lapid makes a good impression in the next few months and voters may want to want to have a go with him.

[Mike88]

Yesh Atid seems to be catching up:


Sorry, didn't saw that the poll had been already posted. Anyway, does the N&W+NH merger benefits Lapid, because it looks that Gantz is a bit desperate?

[Mike88]

When will we know results?

Exit polls are normally accurate and results will start to be known during the early hours of the morning.

[Mike88]

Does the high turnout means that anti-Bibi voters are turning out?

[Mike88]

Does the higher turnout means that anti-Bibi voters are turning out?

We live in the Bad Timeline so it means low info Likud voters are turnout out to vote

Ah, right. Just saw what you posted above. That high turnout could benefit the rightwing. And, any reports on Arab turnout?

[Mike88]

2pm turnout at 38.9%.

[Mike88]

Hi all,

Does anyone have useful links for TV coverage, official results, live result maps, etc?

Thanks so much,

DC

There's Hebrew coverage here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MyvMzLjrQbA. I doubt if there will by English coverage.

Links to official results and maps will only be posted after the polls close.

I found the link to the conservative Channel 14: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6bK-x1csbcM

Channel 13 normally had a live youtube feed on election nights, but I cannot find it. The KAN 11 feed is geoblocked.

[Mike88]

Exit polls:

61-59 in favor of Bibi

God... here we go again.

[Mike88]

It's been almost 2.5 hours.  When will results start to come in?

Some are starting to come in. Just 3,638 voters.

27.95% YA
15.06% Likud
13.83% National Unity
11.98% RZP-OY

[Mike88]

The new update has changed almost everything compared with the first one, so not worth posting it until a decent number of votes are counted.

[Mike88]

There seems to be around 800,000 ballots left to count. Any idea where they may come from?