Israel 2022 election (November 1st)

[DavidB.]

The point of following a soap opera is that it's fun and lighthearted in spirit. Since the one named Israeli politics has only been depressing over the last couple of years, I've kind of lost track. And so I have some questions:

1. Why is Bennett not continuing his career in politics?
2. Please remind me: why aren't Lapid and Gantz on the same team anymore?
3. What is most likely to happen in the event where the Bibi bloc doesn't win a majority? Another election? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
4. How are Bibi's court cases (?) progressing? Kind of crazy that it's all taking so long.

[DavidB.]

So basically the settlers who used to vote Bennett/Shaked a couple of years ago are now going to vote for Smotrich, and Mizrahi voters who used to vote Shas/Likud would push Otzma over the threshold. Interesting. But I wonder how much of that virtual Otzma support will actually transfer to actual votes on election day when Bibi goes all in during the last week of the elections. I would imagine this type of voter is extremely open to shifting to Bibi when he is all over the news, says the country is under fire because the left could take over, that only a big Bibi victory could prevent this, that it's extremely close, etc.

[DavidB.]

Apparently RZ and Otzma are running together after all - Ben Gvir published a statement with this message.

[DavidB.]

Election map here: https://www.ynet.co.il/news/category/44113. Including previous versions.

[DavidB.]

It's usually quite slow but I don't remember it being this bad... it really shouldn't be too difficult counting the votes either, because voters don't even indicate candidates, they only choose between parties.

[DavidB.]

Ironic how Ben Gvir managed to unite settlers and non-settler, non-Orthodox voters in a way Bennett tried but never could. Of course, the non-settlers Bennett was aiming for were a very different segment of society than the ones Ben Gvir got...

Outside the settlements, RZ/OY's class & religion pattern actually seems reasonably comparable to that of European far-right parties, with all the caveats of comparing Israel to Europe of course.

[DavidB.]

Ironic how Ben Gvir managed to unite settlers and non-settler, non-Orthodox voters in a way Bennett tried but never could. Of course, the non-settlers Bennett was aiming for were a very different segment of society than the ones Ben Gvir got...

Who was Bennett aiming for? IIRC in 2013 he was chasing disappointed middle-class voters (Likud-voting Mizrahi social climbers?), like a right-wing mirror image of Lapid. Is that correct, and could it have worked?

Bennett seemed to aim for middle-class people, mostly in the center of the country (where he himself is from), who make decent money and perhaps find Likud/Bibi too "populist" or too corrupt, but find Zionism to be important (but not in an overly jingoistic way) and could be swayed with almost Ben Shapiro-esque Facts And Logic-like arguments, such as Bennett's plan for the West Bank. I'm thinking of Ashkenazim more than of Mizrahim here. Anyway, this never really succeeded. Perhaps this demographic doesn't exist in big numbers, or they simply weren't swayed by Bennett. The "right-wing mirror image of Lapid" remark is exactly right, I think.

The "Mizrahi social climbers" demographic was more Kahlon's niche (almost forgot about him... feels like a lifetime ago he was around). I actually do think Yamina managed to attract some of these voters in 2021. Most likely they voted Likud or Gantz this time around.

The Indian experience suggests that, anyway, FPTP does not automatically produce stable parliamentary majorities and stable governments.

An experience closer to home (particularly yours...) suggests the same...

[DavidB.]

Huge contrast although not surprising.  Seems like Jerusalem had close to 75% go for Bibi bloc and quite right wing while Tel Aviv Bibi bloc got only around 25% roughly so very much a mix of centrist and left wing.  But no surprise.  Having been to both cities, Jerusalem struck me as a very religious city while Tel Aviv quite secular.

Truly the earth-shattering insight we were all craving for.