Israel 2022 election (November 1st)

[jaichind]

Is not Netanyahu being back as PM the most likely scenario if there really is an election?

[jaichind]

I think it's rather clear looking at it from an outsider's perspective that Netanyahu will have the seats to become Prime Minister if he doesn't do anything stupid between now and November.

That is my very outsider amateurish view as well.  The old opposition narrative was "Netanyahu is the source of instability and if Netanyahu is out of power then Israel politics and stabilize".  Well, an anti-Netanyahu was installed and there was no stability. The only way to a stable government now is to vote Likud.

[jaichind]

That's not going to happen. Even if the Haredi finally renounce him his position in Likud is rock solid for as long as he wants, and that length will equal the time until his trial is over at least.

That reminds me.  How is the Netanyahu trial going?  Is there a risk he will be forced out of politics in the coming year or two due to a guilty verdict or is the legal process going to be very long which would mean he can stay on as PM or LoP for as long as he wants?

[jaichind]

What will happend if the result is

Ruling bloc < Netanyahu bloc

but

Ruling bloc + Joint List > Netanyahu bloc

[jaichind]

https://www.israelhayom.com/2022/08/16/head-of-far-right-otzma-yehudit-party-announces-solo-run-in-upcoming-election/

It seems Otzma is going to run separately. 

[jaichind]

https://www.israelhayom.com/2022/08/16/head-of-far-right-otzma-yehudit-party-announces-solo-run-in-upcoming-election/

It seems Otzma is going to run separately. 

Good, though they might have the votes now to dance closer to the threshold,  which would be bad.

I recall back in 2019 Netanyahu got them to run on a bigger list of Religious Right parties exactly because of concerns of wasted votes. 

[jaichind]

If all three Arab lists make threshold, would that likely be enough to prevent Bibi bloc majority?

Yes. With the added effect that Balad will have 4 seats lol

But in that case I thought Ra'am will then join the Likud bloc ?

[jaichind]

Turnout at 4pm is 47.5%, still the highest since 1999.

Are there any regional patterns of this turnout surge to give us a sense if these are pro-Likud or anti-Likud voters?

[jaichind]

Turnout at 4pm is 47.5%, still the highest since 1999.

Are there any regional patterns of this turnout surge to give us a sense if these are pro-Likud or anti-Likud voters?

Nothing official. The Bedouin Negev looks very good, which leaves everyone fairly certain that Raam will clear the threshold. Other than that reports are extremely contradictory--parties use fear-mongering about turnout to squeeze more voters into their stack. There isn't even agreement about how high overall turnout will go, which matters a lot to the smaller parties fighting to get to 3.25%.

I recall years ago Netanyahu warned on election day that Arab turnout was massive to push put Likud turnout.   I wonder if there is still time for him to do the same thing today.

[jaichind]

Exit polls:

61-59 in favor of Bibi

God... here we go again.

Does the exit poll take into account surplus vote-sharing agreements?

[jaichind]

I assume https://votes25.bechirot.gov.il/ is the results page

[jaichind]

Exit polls:

61-59 in favor of Bibi

God... here we go again.

There were 4 exit polls, 2 have 62 for Bibi and 2 have 61.

Is there a link to those 4 exit polls and the seat breakdown for each party ?

[jaichind]

I think Balad gets in. Channel 11 has them .15% away, and the prison vote alone should cover that.

All 4 exit polls seem to have them falling below.  So if they get in then it will upend all these projections.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1587560369903616002

[jaichind]

It's been almost 2.5 hours.  When will results start to come in?

[jaichind]

Amazing what a 3.25% threshold vs a 3.0% threshold makes.