Israel 2022 election (November 1st)

[Walmart_shopper]

2pm turnout at 38.9%.

Still the highest turnout since 1999, but it's definitely slowing down. Fueled by a high Arab turnout 2020 saw a 2pm turnout of 38.1%, so this year will likely finish with high but not record-busting turnout. Turnout in 2020 was 71% and I suspect we will wind up close to that this year.

[Logical]

Past turnout table

[danny]

Turnout at 4pm is 47.5%, still the highest since 1999.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Fingers crossed Netanyahu doesn't regain the Prime Ministership.

[jaichind]

Turnout at 4pm is 47.5%, still the highest since 1999.

Are there any regional patterns of this turnout surge to give us a sense if these are pro-Likud or anti-Likud voters?

[danny]

Turnout at 4pm is 47.5%, still the highest since 1999.

Are there any regional patterns of this turnout surge to give us a sense if these are pro-Likud or anti-Likud voters?

The only official numbers are those released by the central election committee, but they only release nationwide numbers. we won't have turnout numbers for localities until we get the election results anyway.

[Walmart_shopper]

Turnout at 4pm is 47.5%, still the highest since 1999.

Are there any regional patterns of this turnout surge to give us a sense if these are pro-Likud or anti-Likud voters?

Nothing official. The Bedouin Negev looks very good, which leaves everyone fairly certain that Raam will clear the threshold. Other than that reports are extremely contradictory--parties use fear-mongering about turnout to squeeze more voters into their stack. There isn't even agreement about how high overall turnout will go, which matters a lot to the smaller parties fighting to get to 3.25%.

[jaichind]

Turnout at 4pm is 47.5%, still the highest since 1999.

Are there any regional patterns of this turnout surge to give us a sense if these are pro-Likud or anti-Likud voters?

Nothing official. The Bedouin Negev looks very good, which leaves everyone fairly certain that Raam will clear the threshold. Other than that reports are extremely contradictory--parties use fear-mongering about turnout to squeeze more voters into their stack. There isn't even agreement about how high overall turnout will go, which matters a lot to the smaller parties fighting to get to 3.25%.

I recall years ago Netanyahu warned on election day that Arab turnout was massive to push put Likud turnout.   I wonder if there is still time for him to do the same thing today.

[Double Carpet]

Hi all,

Does anyone have useful links for TV coverage, official results, live result maps, etc?

Thanks so much,

DC

[Hnv1]

Turnout dipped back to 71-2% levels here

[danny]

Hi all,

Does anyone have useful links for TV coverage, official results, live result maps, etc?

Thanks so much,

DC

There's Hebrew coverage here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MyvMzLjrQbA. I doubt if there will by English coverage.

Links to official results and maps will only be posted after the polls close.

[Double Carpet]

Ah thanks, I'm fine with Hebrew, always like to watch the local TV (also for Denmark tonight).

[danny]

Turnout at 6pm is 57.7%, still the highest since 1999.

[Hnv1]

Solid Bibi win.

[Walmart_shopper]

Solid Bibi win.

Maybe, but the Arab sector is on fire right now. They'll probably get to at least 55% and perhaps even higher, which would likely get Balad across. No way the right wins if all three Arab parties are over the threshold.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

So, am I correct in assuming that the election is still basically 50/50 between Netanyahu comeback or else complete ungovernability?

[Logical]

Solid Bibi win.

Maybe, but the Arab sector is on fire right now. They'll probably get to at least 55% and perhaps even higher, which would likely get Balad across. No way the right wins if all three Arab parties are over the threshold.

We live in the banter timeline so what will happen is all 3 Arab parties and Shaked passes the threshold.

[Hnv1]

Solid Bibi win.

Maybe, but the Arab sector is on fire right now. They'll probably get to at least 55% and perhaps even higher, which would likely get Balad across. No way the right wins if all three Arab parties are over the threshold.

Or they might all fall under the threshold but above 3%

Voting in right wing strongholds also on the rise…

[Walmart_shopper]

The 8pm update is 66.3 percent turnout, which is just a touch above 2020 when final turnout was at 71%. If--I'm saying if--Arab turnout is scratching at 60% and general turnout is at 72% then all three Arab parties get in, Bibi is stuck at 58 mandates, and we have a very similar election to 2020. A lot of ifs and I would probably rather be a right wingers at the moment , but this could be dramatic

[Horus]

If Israel elects Bibi, RZP (with that thing who's 2nd on their list) and the Haredim, all hope will be lost.

It will be handing anti-Zionists what they've wanted all along on a silver platter.

Was bound to happen sooner or later. Israel has been damaged goods from its inception. Its decline into a conservative, theocratic supremacist state is almost complete. Just look at youth polling on issues like ssm, might as well be polling Lebanon.

[Mike88]

Hi all,

Does anyone have useful links for TV coverage, official results, live result maps, etc?

Thanks so much,

DC

There's Hebrew coverage here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MyvMzLjrQbA. I doubt if there will by English coverage.

Links to official results and maps will only be posted after the polls close.

I found the link to the conservative Channel 14: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6bK-x1csbcM

Channel 13 normally had a live youtube feed on election nights, but I cannot find it. The KAN 11 feed is geoblocked.

[Logical]

Hi all,

Does anyone have useful links for TV coverage, official results, live result maps, etc?

Thanks so much,

DC

There's Hebrew coverage here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MyvMzLjrQbA. I doubt if there will by English coverage.

Links to official results and maps will only be posted after the polls close.

I found the link to the conservative Channel 14: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6bK-x1csbcM

Channel 13 normally had a live youtube feed on election nights, but I cannot find it. The KAN 11 feed is geoblocked.

Ynet has a livestream too:
https://youtu.be/NU_VtWW6qJg

i24 news usually does an English speaking election night livestream but they have not posted anything this year.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Very anecdotal, but my friend who worked for Meretz said they successfully spooked their voters and stand at 5-6 seats while Labor slept at the wheel and are in danger

[Mike88]

Exit polls:

61-59 in favor of Bibi

God... here we go again.

[jaichind]

Exit polls:

61-59 in favor of Bibi

God... here we go again.

Does the exit poll take into account surplus vote-sharing agreements?