Israel 2022 election (November 1st)

[Vosem]

Is there a reason that Yamina couldn't, or wouldn't, run on a joint list with New Hope? (For that matter Labor-Meretz also makes a great deal of sense and has been done in the past, but since the leadership is the same as last time this doesn't seem very likely.)

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Is there a reason that Yamina couldn't, or wouldn't, run on a joint list with New Hope? (For that matter Labor-Meretz also makes a great deal of sense and has been done in the past, but since the leadership is the same as last time this doesn't seem very likely.)

My assumption would just be personality conflicts between the leaders, because there really isn't *that* much of a difference ideologically.

[Hnv1]

Is there a reason that Yamina couldn't, or wouldn't, run on a joint list with New Hope? (For that matter Labor-Meretz also makes a great deal of sense and has been done in the past, but since the leadership is the same as last time this doesn't seem very likely.)

Saar is committed to a government with no Bibi. Shaked is trying not to rule it out.
I suppose Saar is not too happy about bringing Shaked and her hornets nest of a party in. NH was a cohesive loyal unit where Yamina dissolved as a party. He might recruit Kahane if the merger with B&W won’t happen.

Labour-Meretz is tricky. Everyone in Meretz wants it, most in Labour as well (52% of Labour voters according to a poll from yesterday). But Michaeli is Michaeli.
It seems Meretz are trying to line up their most moderate list so that a merger would be easier to swallow with Raz and Lasky pushed back

[America Needs R'hllor]

Is there a reason that Yamina couldn't, or wouldn't, run on a joint list with New Hope? (For that matter Labor-Meretz also makes a great deal of sense and has been done in the past, but since the leadership is the same as last time this doesn't seem very likely.)

Saar is committed to a government with no Bibi. Shaked is trying not to rule it out.
I suppose Saar is not too happy about bringing Shaked and her hornets nest of a party in. NH was a cohesive loyal unit where Yamina dissolved as a party. He might recruit Kahane if the merger with B&W won’t happen.

Labour-Meretz is tricky. Everyone in Meretz wants it, most in Labour as well (52% of Labour voters according to a poll from yesterday). But Michaeli is Michaeli.
It seems Meretz are trying to line up their most moderate list so that a merger would be easier to swallow with Raz and Lasky pushed back

In regards to the center-right it seems like a chess game: Sa'ar likely wants Kahane since he's popular with the centrist anti-Bibi base, but the Haredim view him as a red line and so Gantz, who has fantasies of being PM on the back of Haredi support, probably doesn't want him. So if Sa'ar wants to join Gantz, he can't take Kahana yet. The whole NH-KL merger is generally going to be a bit awkward- Gantz has a lot of populist wannabe-Mapai elements in his party like Schuster and Biton, and trying to mix them in with Haskel is kind of weird. But she has been pretty loyal to Sa'ar so who knows.

With Labor-Meretz I suspect it's not just Michaeli but the Labor MKs- they don't want to get pushed out of the Knesset (since the joint party won't generate enthusiasm and will inevitably end up at 6-7 seats after Lapid is down drinking, leaving space just for Michaeli and max 3 other Labor MKs). I suspect they'll play a game of chicken with Meretz until the listst close- but personally I think it's unlikely Meretz doesn't run. It's an old institutional party, and this brings with it a lot of ego, pride and jobs.

Personally I think the best way to end this constant struggle with Meretz and Labor is to create a new party where everyone runs in an open primary, but that has no chance of happening. At least until we get something like Meretz 0 Labor 4 that truly shatters these parties.

[Hnv1]

Is there a reason that Yamina couldn't, or wouldn't, run on a joint list with New Hope? (For that matter Labor-Meretz also makes a great deal of sense and has been done in the past, but since the leadership is the same as last time this doesn't seem very likely.)

Saar is committed to a government with no Bibi. Shaked is trying not to rule it out.
I suppose Saar is not too happy about bringing Shaked and her hornets nest of a party in. NH was a cohesive loyal unit where Yamina dissolved as a party. He might recruit Kahane if the merger with B&W won’t happen.

Labour-Meretz is tricky. Everyone in Meretz wants it, most in Labour as well (52% of Labour voters according to a poll from yesterday). But Michaeli is Michaeli.
It seems Meretz are trying to line up their most moderate list so that a merger would be easier to swallow with Raz and Lasky pushed back

In regards to the center-right it seems like a chess game: Sa'ar likely wants Kahane since he's popular with the centrist anti-Bibi base, but the Haredim view him as a red line and so Gantz, who has fantasies of being PM on the back of Haredi support, probably doesn't want him. So if Sa'ar wants to join Gantz, he can't take Kahana yet. The whole NH-KL merger is generally going to be a bit awkward- Gantz has a lot of populist wannabe-Mapai elements in his party like Schuster and Biton, and trying to mix them in with Haskel is kind of weird. But she has been pretty loyal to Sa'ar so who knows.

With Labor-Meretz I suspect it's not just Michaeli but the Labor MKs- they don't want to get pushed out of the Knesset (since the joint party won't generate enthusiasm and will inevitably end up at 6-7 seats after Lapid is down drinking, leaving space just for Michaeli and max 3 other Labor MKs). I suspect they'll play a game of chicken with Meretz until the listst close- but personally I think it's unlikely Meretz doesn't run. It's an old institutional party, and this brings with it a lot of ego, pride and jobs.

Personally I think the best way to end this constant struggle with Meretz and Labor is to create a new party where everyone runs in an open primary, but that has no chance of happening. At least until we get something like Meretz 0 Labor 4 that truly shatters these parties.

That’s true on both Labour and Meretz, and if the latter had any decency they would just sit this one out and try to understand why so many of their potential voters despise them (disclosure I was a member for over two decades including in the party convention).
As Werter in Haaretz hinted if they do start showing steady over the threshold results in the polls Lapid will encourage YA and Labour to cannibalise on their voters to reduce the spoiled votes to 1-1.5%

The NH-B&W is inorganic and awkward. It made more sense for NH-YB-Yamina join hands. But Lieberman has his own 4D chess going, and Shaked is toxic.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Israel's favorite unbiased (far right radical) political journalist, Amit Segal, is reporting that New Hope and Kahol Lavan are close to an agreement for a joint run. They want to sign soon so they can get Eisenkot (former IDF Chief, contemplating joining Yesh Atid or KL) and get better polling vs Lapid.

Apparently it's going to be:
1. Gantz
2. Sa'ar
3. KL
4. KL
5. Shasha-Biton (NH)
6. KL
7. Elkin (NH)

Communication Minister Yoaz Hendel is out. I'm pretty sure it's because Gantz is desperate for the Haredim to like him and Hendel passed a reform that lets Haredi people move their numbers to non kosher phones which made him an enemy of the Haredi establishment, but we also remember the time Hendel prevented Gantz from being PM by coming out against a minority government with outside support from the Joint List. Hard to see Benny Begin or Sharen Haskel joining this weird political body either.

[Hnv1]

Israel's favorite unbiased (far right radical) political journalist, Amit Segal, is reporting that New Hope and Kahol Lavan are close to an agreement for a joint run. They want to sign soon so they can get Eisenkot (former IDF Chief, contemplating joining Yesh Atid or KL) and get better polling vs Lapid.

Apparently it's going to be:
1. Gantz
2. Sa'ar
3. KL
4. KL
5. Shasha-Biton (NH)
6. KL
7. Elkin (NH)

Communication Minister Yoaz Hendel is out. I'm pretty sure it's because Gantz is desperate for the Haredim to like him and Hendel passed a reform that lets Haredi people move their numbers to non kosher phones which made him an enemy of the Haredi establishment, but we also remember the time Hendel prevented Gantz from being PM by coming out against a minority government with outside support from the Joint List. Hard to see Benny Begin or Sharen Haskel joining this weird political body either.

It's:
Gantz
Saar
Tamano Shatta (?)
Truper
Shsha Bitton
Bitton
Elkin

The rest will be on 2:1 basis for B&W.

My take:
Gantz is pushing forward the right wing of his list with Tamanno Shatta (who is quite thick tbf) and Truper. Instead of the new Rabin he's pushing for the new Sharon.
Hendel is out due to personal feuds with Gantz, and Kahane will be out because of the Haredi pipedream. It remains to be seen what will happen with this trio (with Hauser).
I don't think Eisenkot is going to join Gantz. From an acquaintance of his, I learned that he's more to the left and prefers to start his journey in a real party.
It's interesting if Sharen Haskel could join in on this protectionist project. She might be pursued by Yamina\YB.
Speaking of both, Shaked will have to reinvent herself very fast, and Lieberman well he got his guaranteed 5 seats but his brand is starting to get stale.

Gantz is trying to pivot himself to make it a three-horse race. I'm not quite sure it's going to work.
I

[America Needs R'hllor]

Israel's favorite unbiased (far right radical) political journalist, Amit Segal, is reporting that New Hope and Kahol Lavan are close to an agreement for a joint run. They want to sign soon so they can get Eisenkot (former IDF Chief, contemplating joining Yesh Atid or KL) and get better polling vs Lapid.

Apparently it's going to be:
1. Gantz
2. Sa'ar
3. KL
4. KL
5. Shasha-Biton (NH)
6. KL
7. Elkin (NH)

Communication Minister Yoaz Hendel is out. I'm pretty sure it's because Gantz is desperate for the Haredim to like him and Hendel passed a reform that lets Haredi people move their numbers to non kosher phones which made him an enemy of the Haredi establishment, but we also remember the time Hendel prevented Gantz from being PM by coming out against a minority government with outside support from the Joint List. Hard to see Benny Begin or Sharen Haskel joining this weird political body either.

It's:
Gantz
Saar
Tamano Shatta (?)
Truper
Shsha Bitton
Bitton
Elkin

He's actually keeping Bitton after the trouble he caused? Lol

[Hnv1]

Israel's favorite unbiased (far right radical) political journalist, Amit Segal, is reporting that New Hope and Kahol Lavan are close to an agreement for a joint run. They want to sign soon so they can get Eisenkot (former IDF Chief, contemplating joining Yesh Atid or KL) and get better polling vs Lapid.

Apparently it's going to be:
1. Gantz
2. Sa'ar
3. KL
4. KL
5. Shasha-Biton (NH)
6. KL
7. Elkin (NH)

Communication Minister Yoaz Hendel is out. I'm pretty sure it's because Gantz is desperate for the Haredim to like him and Hendel passed a reform that lets Haredi people move their numbers to non kosher phones which made him an enemy of the Haredi establishment, but we also remember the time Hendel prevented Gantz from being PM by coming out against a minority government with outside support from the Joint List. Hard to see Benny Begin or Sharen Haskel joining this weird political body either.

It's:
Gantz
Saar
Tamano Shatta (?)
Truper
Shsha Bitton
Bitton
Elkin

He's actually keeping Bitton after the trouble he caused? Lol

You rather have the kid trashing the house from the inside than throwing rocks on the outside.
Those who aspire for a narrow government can’t afford to affront too many people.

I think this union will fail and result in 10 seats. Lapid and Labour are going to gain voters now

[America Needs R'hllor]

Gantz + Lapid joint run is official.
Meanwhile, the court gave Amichai Chikli (first Yamina defector, one of the most homophobic America-style culture warriors in the Israeli right) an out, he'll be allowed to leave the knesset and get a spot in an existing list (I assume Likud).

[America Needs R'hllor]

Gantz Sa'ar union gets just 13 seats in new poll, 15 if Eisenkot joins them. This is a flop- usually parties are at peak enthusiasm after announcement, and decline from there. If he can't even come close to Lapid with Eisenkot included, I wager he'll end up with 8-10 seats in the end.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Benny Gantz is not the worst person in Israeli politics by far, but somehow he is the biggest dipsh**t.

[Hnv1]

Gantz Sa'ar union gets just 13 seats in new poll, 15 if Eisenkot joins them. This is a flop- usually parties are at peak enthusiasm after announcement, and decline from there. If he can't even come close to Lapid with Eisenkot included, I wager he'll end up with 8-10 seats in the end.

I anticipated it as soon as I heard it. There simply isn't enough of an electorate that wants this centrist blend and most of it already voted B&W (and didn't vote NH). Moreover, Gantz is hardly inspiring for a lot of voters especially in the center who see him as just another mediocre general.

However, as we learned he might still be able to squeeze himself into Balfour if there's a stalemate

[Hnv1]

Meretz chairman Horowitz stands down. I guess the red powers that be told him his time is up.

Now it's either Yair Golan takes it or Galon is back to save the party

[America Needs R'hllor]

Meretz chairman Horowitz stands down. I guess the red powers that be told him his time is up.

Now it's either Yair Golan takes it or Galon is back to save the party

Surely someone like Zandberg will try... No? They'll actually let Yair Golan take it?

[Hnv1]

Meretz chairman Horowitz stands down. I guess the red powers that be told him his time is up.

Now it's either Yair Golan takes it or Galon is back to save the party

Surely someone like Zandberg will try... No? They'll actually let Yair Golan take it?

The reds control 40% of the membership. They basically decide unless everyone unites against them. I really doubt everyone would agree to unite behind Zandberg. She's not well liked

[warandwar]

Meretz chairman Horowitz stands down. I guess the red powers that be told him his time is up.

Now it's either Yair Golan takes it or Galon is back to save the party

Surely someone like Zandberg will try... No? They'll actually let Yair Golan take it?

The reds control 40% of the membership. They basically decide unless everyone unites against them. I really doubt everyone would agree to unite behind Zandberg. She's not well liked

Are there official factiins in Meretz?

[Hnv1]

Meretz chairman Horowitz stands down. I guess the red powers that be told him his time is up.

Now it's either Yair Golan takes it or Galon is back to save the party

Surely someone like Zandberg will try... No? They'll actually let Yair Golan take it?

The reds control 40% of the membership. They basically decide unless everyone unites against them. I really doubt everyone would agree to unite behind Zandberg. She's not well liked

Are there official factiins in Meretz?

Define official? Since 1996 the party is one.
There are a bunch of factions within though and internal affairs are a matter of shifting alliances and agendas

[warandwar]

Meretz chairman Horowitz stands down. I guess the red powers that be told him his time is up.

Now it's either Yair Golan takes it or Galon is back to save the party

Surely someone like Zandberg will try... No? They'll actually let Yair Golan take it?

The reds control 40% of the membership. They basically decide unless everyone unites against them. I really doubt everyone would agree to unite behind Zandberg. She's not well liked

Are there official factiins in Meretz?

Define official? Since 1996 the party is one.
There are a bunch of factions within though and internal affairs are a matter of shifting alliances and agendas

As in have names, their own meetings, and are known by party members outside their circle I guess. Like when you say "the reds," it's more of a milieu than anything else, right?

[Hnv1]

Meretz chairman Horowitz stands down. I guess the red powers that be told him his time is up.

Now it's either Yair Golan takes it or Galon is back to save the party

Surely someone like Zandberg will try... No? They'll actually let Yair Golan take it?

The reds control 40% of the membership. They basically decide unless everyone unites against them. I really doubt everyone would agree to unite behind Zandberg. She's not well liked

Are there official factiins in Meretz?

Define official? Since 1996 the party is one.
There are a bunch of factions within though and internal affairs are a matter of shifting alliances and agendas

As in have names, their own meetings, and are known by party members outside their circle I guess. Like when you say "the reds," it's more of a milieu than anything else, right?

The reds actually are semi-organized, run their own social media, and have their own logo etc. They began as the provisional camp for MK Ilan Gilon but since grew to a more official faction.

The rest of the groups are more provisional factions around specific people or causes. they usually go by informal names, the greens, the purples, the blues, the yellows and such. 

[warandwar]

Meretz chairman Horowitz stands down. I guess the red powers that be told him his time is up.

Now it's either Yair Golan takes it or Galon is back to save the party

Surely someone like Zandberg will try... No? They'll actually let Yair Golan take it?

The reds control 40% of the membership. They basically decide unless everyone unites against them. I really doubt everyone would agree to unite behind Zandberg. She's not well liked

Are there official factiins in Meretz?

Define official? Since 1996 the party is one.
There are a bunch of factions within though and internal affairs are a matter of shifting alliances and agendas

As in have names, their own meetings, and are known by party members outside their circle I guess. Like when you say "the reds," it's more of a milieu than anything else, right?

The reds actually are semi-organized, run their own social media, and have their own logo etc. They began as the provisional camp for MK Ilan Gilon but since grew to a more official faction.

The rest of the groups are more provisional factions around specific people or causes. they usually go by informal names, the greens, the purples, the blues, the yellows and such. 

I would personally find it interesting if you gave a whole run down but understand i may be the only one there!

[Walmart_shopper]

Meretz chairman Horowitz stands down. I guess the red powers that be told him his time is up.

Now it's either Yair Golan takes it or Galon is back to save the party

In other words it's Gal'on or throw the thing into the trash.

[Hnv1]

Meretz chairman Horowitz stands down. I guess the red powers that be told him his time is up.

Now it's either Yair Golan takes it or Galon is back to save the party

Surely someone like Zandberg will try... No? They'll actually let Yair Golan take it?

The reds control 40% of the membership. They basically decide unless everyone unites against them. I really doubt everyone would agree to unite behind Zandberg. She's not well liked

Are there official factiins in Meretz?

Define official? Since 1996 the party is one.
There are a bunch of factions within though and internal affairs are a matter of shifting alliances and agendas

As in have names, their own meetings, and are known by party members outside their circle I guess. Like when you say "the reds," it's more of a milieu than anything else, right?

The reds actually are semi-organized, run their own social media, and have their own logo etc. They began as the provisional camp for MK Ilan Gilon but since grew to a more official faction.

The rest of the groups are more provisional factions around specific people or causes. they usually go by informal names, the greens, the purples, the blues, the yellows and such.  

I would personally find it interesting if you gave a whole run down but understand i may be the only one there!

Well coincidently MK Zandberg just announced she will stand down, so that's the end of the purples...

I'll start with a little background because the wiki entries sometimes fail to give thick descriptions of how things are:
Starting from the late 70s there was a revival in the left with new radical (to varying degrees) formations springing about. New left voters didn't find themselves in the old workers' parties. Shulamit Aloni, perhaps by chance, perhaps by virtue, managed to consolidate them under Ratz (a small insignificant left-liberal party she formed in the 70s after Meir pushed her out of Labour).
The coalition government of 84 lent some momentum with the leftists of Labour (Sarid) abandoning ship and joining (and Mapam leaving the Alignment).

The first Intifada and ideological collapse of socialism made three odd parties aligned in their daily policy: radical Ratz (that achieved a handsome achievement of 5 seats in 88); classical liberal Shinoi, and stale Marxist Mapam. With the Palestinian issue, the only thing on the agenda all three agreed to join parliamentary factions in 1990 under the title "Democratic Israel". In 1992 Mapam, in virtual insolvency financially and spiritually had to decide whether they carry on this project or merge into Labour. Old Yaakov Hazan said Labour, Oron and Vilan said no and they won. Meretz was a thing and a great success winning 12 seats.
Mapam meanwhile broke down and had to sell its assets and close the old party newspaper. With the end of history hanging over the socialist fumes were all but extinguished and in 1996 Mapam party convention decided in a 75% majority on an official merger 'with Ratz and Shinoi (capitalist Shinoi left in 1999 to be offered to Lapid senior).
Meretz started with the main camps: the Shula and Yossi factions aligned according to their position on the Palestinian issue. The Mapam people, always more to the right on this issue, supported Sarid and helped him oust Aloni. However, underneath there was still a small part of Mapam people that wanted to push back the socialist agenda. Young MK Gilon was one, and by the late early 00s, he became their leader.
His agenda was that the Palestinian issue isn't really something Meretz can contribute to and what is needed is a workers' party. He worked especially hard with the youth branch feeling they were the future.

Many left the party in the days following the hostile takeover by Beilin. some to the left, more to the right. In 2009 Oron beat Cohen (Cohen was in fact more socialist than Oron) and did his own attempt to revive Meretz. The failure was massive. Oron quickly resigned and there wasn't much of a part anymore. Those days membership grew so small the party convention elected in 2012 was actually not elected outside Tel Aviv and Jerusalem there weren't enough members to fill the delegates slots!


Gilon and Galon remained the only game in town. One is a bit of a caricature of an old socialist, the other an unpopular (with the general public) feminist. Galon managed to beat Gilon and he never forgave her.
2013 also saw Zandberg, the first representative of the new younger generation take to the floor.

Although 2013 was an electoral success the party from within was actually dead. Gilon took over the youth divisions and then steadily over the other party institutes. Galon couldn't get her supporters to join as members, and Zandberg started to form her own camp. Since then Meretz acted less then as a party and more like an alliance of micro-parties.

Gilon's camp became known as the Reds. They wanted to change course to become a popular workers' party.
Zandberg formed the Purples, a ragtag coalition of the younger candidates that had no ties to the other groups. they were educated and cared more about environmental and social issues. A lot of them were elected officials on the municipal level
the anti-occupation camp that steadily drifted to post-Zionism came to be centered around MK Raz.
Galon gathered some of the old Ratz mob and the feminists.
Freg had the small Arab membership in his pocket (the yellows).
Horowitz in fact had no faction. He tried to start one called The Blues but found out the gay voters preferred the Diva Zehava to him.

Since 2019 it became quite chaotic with each MK having a small group around him and the different factions joining and breaking alliances quite fast.

Now anyone who's not red is Green symbolizing his wish for Meretz to remain distinct from Labour.

The reds include: the Kibbutz voters, the young socialist division Gilon formed, graduates of some of the blue youth movements
The greens include all the rest: feminists, human rights activists, environmentalists, etc.

Now that the purples are disbanding it would be interesting the see who'd they support. Zandberg was reddish but some of her allies were far from it. I think they will unite around Galon and try to push Zandberg's husband - Uri Zaki - to the top of the list.

[warandwar]

By Blue youth movements, you mean Habo, and Hashomer Hatzair, right? (Because they wear blue shirts?)

[Hnv1]

By Blue youth movements, you mean Habo, and Hashomer Hatzair, right? (Because they wear blue shirts?)

The three that correlated to the party lines on 48

The NOAL identified with Mapai - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HaNoar_HaOved_VeHaLomed
Hashomer Hatzair identified with Mapam - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hashomer_Hatzair
HaMahanot HaOlim identified with Unity of Labour - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HaMahanot_HaOlim

They have different political active graduate movements; some form urban Kibbutz, and some run co-ops. Most identify with Labour but some support Meretz

Habonim are active outside of Israel same as Hashomer's international branch