Israel 2022 election (November 1st)

[danny]

3.43M votes counted
Likud: 23.77%
Yesh Atid: 17.44%
RZP: 10.78%
Shas: 8.94%
National unity: 8.88%
UTJ: 6.80%
Beitenu: 4.38%
Ra'am: 3.86%
Labour: 3.48%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.33%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.05%
Balad: 2.69%
JH: 1.17%

Bunch of Southern Arab vote came in strong, putting Ra'am above threshold. There's still some ~80k uncounted votes left in Tel Aviv that will probably save Meretz.

Is Balad still in this?

There are still a bunch of Arab Galilee towns that have no results yet, so I wouldn't rule it out, but it seems unlikely to me.

[Hnv1]

3.43M votes counted
Likud: 23.77%
Yesh Atid: 17.44%
RZP: 10.78%
Shas: 8.94%
National unity: 8.88%
UTJ: 6.80%
Beitenu: 4.38%
Ra'am: 3.86%
Labour: 3.48%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.33%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.05%
Balad: 2.69%
JH: 1.17%

Bunch of Southern Arab vote came in strong, putting Ra'am above threshold. There's still some ~80k uncounted votes left in Tel Aviv that will probably save Meretz.

Is Balad still in this?

Longshot. They'll need 4% of the double envelopes by my math. Meretz would need 3.5%

So does Bibi have it in the bag?

I can't see him with less than 62-3, even if Meretz passes the threshold. The question is how big the majority will be.
So yeah. he has it in the bag.

[Tekken_Guy]

3.43M votes counted
Likud: 23.77%
Yesh Atid: 17.44%
RZP: 10.78%
Shas: 8.94%
National unity: 8.88%
UTJ: 6.80%
Beitenu: 4.38%
Ra'am: 3.86%
Labour: 3.48%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.33%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.05%
Balad: 2.69%
JH: 1.17%

Bunch of Southern Arab vote came in strong, putting Ra'am above threshold. There's still some ~80k uncounted votes left in Tel Aviv that will probably save Meretz.

Is Balad still in this?

Longshot. They'll need 4% of the double envelopes by my math. Meretz would need 3.5%

So does Bibi have it in the bag?

I can't see him with less than 62-3, even if Meretz passes the threshold. The question is how big the majority will be.
So yeah. he has it in the bag.

Is it likely the government collapses and we get a sixth election? Or will this be the last election for a while?

[Logical]

3.84M votes counted
Likud: 23.04%
Yesh Atid: 17.99%
RZP: 10.27%
National unity: 8.94%
Shas: 8.44%
UTJ: 6.37%
Beitenu: 4.27%
Ra'am: 4.25%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.94%
Labour: 3.60%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.23%
Balad: 3.07%
JH: 1.17%

Very favorable drop for the anti Bibi bloc. Looks like that was most of Tel Aviv though, so Meretz is walking the tightrope here. The Haredim parties have maxed out and will only go down now.

[Hnv1]

3.84M votes counted
Likud: 23.04%
Yesh Atid: 17.99%
RZP: 10.27%
National unity: 8.94%
Shas: 8.44%
UTJ: 6.37%
Beitenu: 4.27%
Ra'am: 4.25%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.94%
Labour: 3.60%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.23%
Balad: 3.07%
JH: 1.17%

Very favorable drop for the anti Bibi bloc. Looks like that was most of Tel Aviv though, so Meretz is walking the tightrope here. The Haredim parties have maxed out and will only go down now.

Still votes in Tel Aviv and Haifa left. Meretz will pull above just barely

[politicallefty]

Am I wrong in seeing this as a pretty big night for the far-right and religious right (yeah, the whole Venn diagram)?

[Tekken_Guy]

3.84M votes counted
Likud: 23.04%
Yesh Atid: 17.99%
RZP: 10.27%
National unity: 8.94%
Shas: 8.44%
UTJ: 6.37%
Beitenu: 4.27%
Ra'am: 4.25%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.94%
Labour: 3.60%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.23%
Balad: 3.07%
JH: 1.17%

Very favorable drop for the anti Bibi bloc. Looks like that was most of Tel Aviv though, so Meretz is walking the tightrope here. The Haredim parties have maxed out and will only go down now.

Still votes in Tel Aviv and Haifa left. Meretz will pull above just barely

What's still out for Balad?

[Hnv1]

3.84M votes counted
Likud: 23.04%
Yesh Atid: 17.99%
RZP: 10.27%
National unity: 8.94%
Shas: 8.44%
UTJ: 6.37%
Beitenu: 4.27%
Ra'am: 4.25%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.94%
Labour: 3.60%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.23%
Balad: 3.07%
JH: 1.17%

Very favorable drop for the anti Bibi bloc. Looks like that was most of Tel Aviv though, so Meretz is walking the tightrope here. The Haredim parties have maxed out and will only go down now.

Still votes in Tel Aviv and Haifa left. Meretz will pull above just barely

What's still out for Balad?

Marginal votes in Tel Aviv and Haifa. small chunks in remote Arab villages. a fraction of the double envelopes.

They're out. sorry

[Tekken_Guy]

3.84M votes counted
Likud: 23.04%
Yesh Atid: 17.99%
RZP: 10.27%
National unity: 8.94%
Shas: 8.44%
UTJ: 6.37%
Beitenu: 4.27%
Ra'am: 4.25%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.94%
Labour: 3.60%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.23%
Balad: 3.07%
JH: 1.17%

Very favorable drop for the anti Bibi bloc. Looks like that was most of Tel Aviv though, so Meretz is walking the tightrope here. The Haredim parties have maxed out and will only go down now.

Still votes in Tel Aviv and Haifa left. Meretz will pull above just barely

What's still out for Balad?

Marginal votes in Tel Aviv and Haifa. small chunks in remote Arab villages. a fraction of the double envelopes.

They're out. sorry

Is there a chance Meretz still falls short?

[Hnv1]

3.84M votes counted
Likud: 23.04%
Yesh Atid: 17.99%
RZP: 10.27%
National unity: 8.94%
Shas: 8.44%
UTJ: 6.37%
Beitenu: 4.27%
Ra'am: 4.25%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.94%
Labour: 3.60%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.23%
Balad: 3.07%
JH: 1.17%

Very favorable drop for the anti Bibi bloc. Looks like that was most of Tel Aviv though, so Meretz is walking the tightrope here. The Haredim parties have maxed out and will only go down now.

Still votes in Tel Aviv and Haifa left. Meretz will pull above just barely

What's still out for Balad?

Marginal votes in Tel Aviv and Haifa. small chunks in remote Arab villages. a fraction of the double envelopes.

They're out. sorry

Is there a chance Meretz still falls short?

yes, but getting slimmer. It's going to break 0.05% on either side

[Tekken_Guy]

3.84M votes counted
Likud: 23.04%
Yesh Atid: 17.99%
RZP: 10.27%
National unity: 8.94%
Shas: 8.44%
UTJ: 6.37%
Beitenu: 4.27%
Ra'am: 4.25%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.94%
Labour: 3.60%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.23%
Balad: 3.07%
JH: 1.17%

Very favorable drop for the anti Bibi bloc. Looks like that was most of Tel Aviv though, so Meretz is walking the tightrope here. The Haredim parties have maxed out and will only go down now.

Still votes in Tel Aviv and Haifa left. Meretz will pull above just barely

What's still out for Balad?

Marginal votes in Tel Aviv and Haifa. small chunks in remote Arab villages. a fraction of the double envelopes.

They're out. sorry

Is there a chance Meretz still falls short?

yes, but getting slimmer. It's going to break 0.05% on either side

Who exactly are the swing voters who swung the election towards Bibi?

[Logical]

4.057M votes counted

Likud: 23.22%
Yesh Atid: 17.92%
RZP: 10.31%
National unity: 8.91%
Shas: 8.41%
UTJ: 6.22%
Ra'am: 4.35%
Beitenu: 4.33%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.92%
Labour: 3.57%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.20%
Balad: 3.05%
JH: 1.17%

[danny]

Who exactly are the swing voters who swung the election towards Bibi?

Here is an attempt at a vote transfer analysis: https://harelc.github.io/elections-vote-transfer/.
The gist of it seems to be a combination of new voters and taking some former Yamina and New Hope voters, and of course an anti Bibi party(ies?) falling just below the threshold.

[Hnv1]

3.84M votes counted
Likud: 23.04%
Yesh Atid: 17.99%
RZP: 10.27%
National unity: 8.94%
Shas: 8.44%
UTJ: 6.37%
Beitenu: 4.27%
Ra'am: 4.25%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.94%
Labour: 3.60%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.23%
Balad: 3.07%
JH: 1.17%

Very favorable drop for the anti Bibi bloc. Looks like that was most of Tel Aviv though, so Meretz is walking the tightrope here. The Haredim parties have maxed out and will only go down now.

Still votes in Tel Aviv and Haifa left. Meretz will pull above just barely

What's still out for Balad?

Marginal votes in Tel Aviv and Haifa. small chunks in remote Arab villages. a fraction of the double envelopes.

They're out. sorry

Is there a chance Meretz still falls short?

yes, but getting slimmer. It's going to break 0.05% on either side

Who exactly are the swing voters who swung the election towards Bibi?

The threshold got him from 58 to 62-3

The only bloc shift were Yamina voters who moved to RZ/Likud

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

WTF Israel. I guess it's good that there will be another election in six to eight months, but still.

[Hnv1]

Votes they need by the end of the count to pass the threshold:
Labour 13-14K
Meretz 27-28K
Balad 34-35K

From around 700K left

[America Needs R'hllor]

Lapid preparing to concede once the votes are counted. Outside of something really wild, it's over.

[Hnv1]

Lapid preparing to concede once the votes are counted. Outside of something really wild, it's over.

Has very little practical meaning in Israeli politics.

Lapid also has a lot of blame for the situation. Not as much as Michaeli and Odeh, but quite a lot.

A 65-seat coalition will be an absolute calamity, and I'm not sure it will fall all that fast. Henceforth no one in the right-wing bloc has an incentive to see another election cycle   

[Hnv1]

So basically, even if Meretz get the 3.85% of the double envelopes they require, Bibi would have 62-3 seats. I assume the coalition talks would go quite fast, although Herzog will try to float some sort of unity government.

The opposition needs to realign to prepare themselves for the coming battle. YA and B&W need to merge into a big-tent centrist party. Michaeli needs to be shown the door, and the new leader of Labour to invite most of Meretz to a new SD party (Galon also has to resign).
The Arab parties need to decide what they want to do as political entities. But I don't think there's any viable alternative bar for creating one big list again.

Afterward, we need to build a ground game. Parliamentary and street action to combat the government. Protests, strikes, and counteractions.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Two heads of government named Jair kicked out of office within two days. What an irony!

(Yeah, I am aware this observation doesn't work in the English language.)

[Tekken_Guy]

So basically, even if Meretz get the 3.85% of the double envelopes they require, Bibi would have 62-3 seats. I assume the coalition talks would go quite fast, although Herzog will try to float some sort of unity government.

The opposition needs to realign to prepare themselves for the coming battle. YA and B&W need to merge into a big-tent centrist party. Michaeli needs to be shown the door, and the new leader of Labour to invite most of Meretz to a new SD party (Galon also has to resign).
The Arab parties need to decide what they want to do as political entities. But I don't think there's any viable alternative bar for creating one big list again.

Afterward, we need to build a ground game. Parliamentary and street action to combat the government. Protests, strikes, and counteractions.

Will there be a sixth election soon if things fall apart for Bibi or will this be the last for a while?

[Hnv1]

Net votes change 2022
Likud 23.24% (-0.95%!!)
YA 17.92% (+3.99%)
RZ 10.32% (5.2%)
Statist 8.92% (-2.45%) [with NH]
Shas 8.40% (+1.23%)
UTJ 6.20% (+0.57%)
YB 4.33% (-1.3%)
Ra'am 4.33% (+0.54%)
Hadash-Ta'al+Balad 3.91%+3.04% (+2.13%)
Labour 3.57% (-2.52%)
Meretz 3.2% (-1.39%)

Likud lost 1% but gained 1-2 seats

[Hnv1]

So basically, even if Meretz get the 3.85% of the double envelopes they require, Bibi would have 62-3 seats. I assume the coalition talks would go quite fast, although Herzog will try to float some sort of unity government.

The opposition needs to realign to prepare themselves for the coming battle. YA and B&W need to merge into a big-tent centrist party. Michaeli needs to be shown the door, and the new leader of Labour to invite most of Meretz to a new SD party (Galon also has to resign).
The Arab parties need to decide what they want to do as political entities. But I don't think there's any viable alternative bar for creating one big list again.

Afterward, we need to build a ground game. Parliamentary and street action to combat the government. Protests, strikes, and counteractions.

Will there be a sixth election soon if things fall apart for Bibi or will this be the last for a while?

I believe this government will hold for at least 2 years

[Tekken_Guy]

So basically, even if Meretz get the 3.85% of the double envelopes they require, Bibi would have 62-3 seats. I assume the coalition talks would go quite fast, although Herzog will try to float some sort of unity government.

The opposition needs to realign to prepare themselves for the coming battle. YA and B&W need to merge into a big-tent centrist party. Michaeli needs to be shown the door, and the new leader of Labour to invite most of Meretz to a new SD party (Galon also has to resign).
The Arab parties need to decide what they want to do as political entities. But I don't think there's any viable alternative bar for creating one big list again.

Afterward, we need to build a ground game. Parliamentary and street action to combat the government. Protests, strikes, and counteractions.

Will there be a sixth election soon if things fall apart for Bibi or will this be the last for a while?

I believe this government will hold for at least 2 years

So what exactly went wrong for the anti-Bibi camp?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So what exactly went wrong for the anti-Bibi camp?

Well, the government fell due to squabbles and this was then replicated with too many lists given where the threshold is set. There are also longer term arguments about a deficient political strategy and set of organizations, but that's the answer to a different question, really.