Israel 2022 election (November 1st)

[America Needs R'hllor]

As of 10am 15.9% have already voted, the largest 10am turnout since 1981

I'd say high turnout generally benefits the right. But, we can't know if morning turnout will have a bearing on overall turnout

[Walmart_shopper]

As of 10am 15.9% have already voted, the largest 10am turnout since 1981

I'd say high turnout generally benefits the right. But, we can't know if morning turnout will have a bearing on overall turnout

Maybe, although I think it's probably safer to assume that a higher turnout is due to a high vote percentage in the Arab sector. While Jewish turnout has varied a little bit over the last several elections Arab turnout has been the primary driver in whether overall turnout is over or under 70%.

I've seen scattered reports that turnout is slightly higher in the Arab sector and much higher in the Negev. But we'll just have to see over the day whst happens.

[America Needs R'hllor]

As of 10am 15.9% have already voted, the largest 10am turnout since 1981

I'd say high turnout generally benefits the right. But, we can't know if morning turnout will have a bearing on overall turnout

Maybe, although I think it's probably safer to assume that a higher turnout is due to a high vote percentage in the Arab sector. While Jewish turnout has varied a little bit over the last several elections Arab turnout has been the primary driver in whether overall turnout is over or under 70%.

I've seen scattered reports that turnout is slightly higher in the Arab sector and much higher in the Negev. But we'll just have to see over the day whst happens.

By Negev do you mean Bedouin villages or Beer Sheba?

Also, for all Hebrew readers, election day bingo I made for my friends:

[Walmart_shopper]

As of 10am 15.9% have already voted, the largest 10am turnout since 1981

I'd say high turnout generally benefits the right. But, we can't know if morning turnout will have a bearing on overall turnout

Maybe, although I think it's probably safer to assume that a higher turnout is due to a high vote percentage in the Arab sector. While Jewish turnout has varied a little bit over the last several elections Arab turnout has been the primary driver in whether overall turnout is over or under 70%.

I've seen scattered reports that turnout is slightly higher in the Arab sector and much higher in the Negev. But we'll just have to see over the day whst happens.

By Negev do you mean Bedouin villages or Beer Sheba?

Also, for all Hebrew readers, election day bingo I made for my friends:

Haha. True. But I think they were talking about the Arab vote in the Negev.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Haha. True. But I think they were talking about the Arab vote in the Negev.

6 seat Ra'am time

[Sestak]

If all three Arab lists make threshold, would that likely be enough to prevent Bibi bloc majority?

[America Needs R'hllor]

If all three Arab lists make threshold, would that likely be enough to prevent Bibi bloc majority?

Yes. With the added effect that Balad will have 4 seats lol

[jaichind]

If all three Arab lists make threshold, would that likely be enough to prevent Bibi bloc majority?

Yes. With the added effect that Balad will have 4 seats lol

But in that case I thought Ra'am will then join the Likud bloc ?

[America Needs R'hllor]

If all three Arab lists make threshold, would that likely be enough to prevent Bibi bloc majority?

Yes. With the added effect that Balad will have 4 seats lol

But in that case I thought Ra'am will then join the Likud bloc ?

Ra'am is pragmatic but I doubt there's a chance Ra'am joins Likud's bloc. RZ is strictly opposed, and I think Likud went too deep on calling Abbas a terrorist for it to work. Whether Balad passes or not has no bearing on this, anyway.

[America Needs R'hllor]

28.4% turnout as of 12:00, highest since 1999

[Hnv1]

Absolute scenes. The precinct I work in is working nonstop. I don’t recall anything like this

[Comrade Funk]

You'd think people would be sick of voting by this point

[Hnv1]

You'd think people would be sick of voting by this point

Polarisation is a hell of a drug

[Mike88]

Does the high turnout means that anti-Bibi voters are turning out?

[America Needs R'hllor]

Does the higher turnout means that anti-Bibi voters are turning out?

We live in the Bad Timeline so it means low info Likud voters are turnout out to vote

[Mike88]

Does the higher turnout means that anti-Bibi voters are turning out?

We live in the Bad Timeline so it means low info Likud voters are turnout out to vote

Ah, right. Just saw what you posted above. That high turnout could benefit the rightwing. And, any reports on Arab turnout?

[Hnv1]

Voting chilled a bit. But we’ll see by the 14:00 figures

[danny]

Ah, right. Just saw what you posted above. That high turnout could benefit the rightwing. And, any reports on Arab turnout?

From my experience in previous elections, turnout reports for specific sectors are unreliable. If you look for rumours, you will just encounter completely contradictory reports.

Also, we don't even know if turnout will remain high by the end of the day, there is rain forecast for the afternoon, so it's possible  some people decided to vote earlier than usual to avoid it.

[Walmart_shopper]

Ah, right. Just saw what you posted above. That high turnout could benefit the rightwing. And, any reports on Arab turnout?

From my experience in previous elections, turnout reports for specific sectors are unreliable. If you look for rumours, you will just encounter completely contradictory reports.

Also, we don't even know if turnout will remain high by the end of the day, there is rain forecast for the afternoon, so it's possible  some people decided to vote earlier than usual to avoid it.

I mean anecdotal stuff can be unreliable but because Israel is a segregated society it's very easy to determine who is voting simply based on city or neighborhood--data that is in fact reliable and accurate. If Bnai Brak has extremely high turnout you don't have to he a genius to know who that benefits even if it's less clear precisely which of two or three parties those votes are going to.

[Walmart_shopper]

Does the higher turnout means that anti-Bibi voters are turning out?

We live in the Bad Timeline so it means low info Likud voters are turnout out to vote

Israel has a very high participation rate except for two groups--Arabs (20% of the country) and low information, usually Mizrahi voters in the periphery (maybe 10-15% of the country?). Either group can drive a turnout bump and the wild thing is that either group can swing a new election dramatically just by showing up or not.

[Pres Mike]

When will we know results?

If it’s clear cut we’ll know by morning. If it’s a close one we’ll have to wait for the all the double envelopes to be counted by Friday morning

Wednesday morning? When does voting end?

[Logical]

When will we know results?

If it’s clear cut we’ll know by morning. If it’s a close one we’ll have to wait for the all the double envelopes to be counted by Friday morning

Wednesday morning? When does voting end?

10 PM Today (8 PM GMT).

[Walmart_shopper]

Does the higher turnout means that anti-Bibi voters are turning out?

We live in the Bad Timeline so it means low info Likud voters are turnout out to vote

Ah, right. Just saw what you posted above. That high turnout could benefit the rightwing. And, any reports on Arab turnout?

At this point the reports on Arab turnout are mostly just spin. It sounds like Arab turnout increased but maybe not as much as the increase in Jewish turnout? I wouldn't put much stock in any of that until we start seeing actual numbers from different cities to compare with previous elections.

[Mike88]

2pm turnout at 38.9%.

[danny]

Ah, right. Just saw what you posted above. That high turnout could benefit the rightwing. And, any reports on Arab turnout?

From my experience in previous elections, turnout reports for specific sectors are unreliable. If you look for rumours, you will just encounter completely contradictory reports.

Also, we don't even know if turnout will remain high by the end of the day, there is rain forecast for the afternoon, so it's possible  some people decided to vote earlier than usual to avoid it.

I mean anecdotal stuff can be unreliable but because Israel is a segregated society it's very easy to determine who is voting simply based on city or neighborhood--data that is in fact reliable and accurate. If Bnai Brak has extremely high turnout you don't have to he a genius to know who that benefits even if it's less clear precisely which of two or three parties those votes are going to.

In theory this is true, but in practice we don't have definitive turnout numbers by town, so we are left with one journalist saying Arab turnout is up and another that it's down without knowing where they are getting it from.