Israel 2022 election (November 1st)

[Hnv1]

The scenario in which Netanyahu gets his majority can be further divided depending on whether or not he could substitute the Religious Zionists with National Unity even if he wanted to.

I don't think that's going to happen, nor would either Gantz or Sa'ar be interested.

I think YA and the statists would merge parties a day into their time in opposition to have a larger faction than Likud and prepare a wide opposition to what's to come

[America Needs R'hllor]

"interesting" factoid- in the secular center of Israel, Smotrich has practically no campaign. All religious zionism ads and signs are Ben Gvir Ben Gvir Ben Gvir- as if he leads the party and is its only face.

[America Needs R'hllor]

All three final polls for Israel have the Netanyahu bloc at 60 seats, Labor at 5-6, Meretz at 4-5, and Hadash-Ta'al and Ra'am at 4 in all 3. Balad getting support amounting to 2-3 seats in the polls, while Jewish Home gets 1-2 (and unclear if their voters would go for Likud-RZ or for Gantz), so if Bibi wins next week, it might just be thanks to Balad

[Hnv1]

All three final polls for Israel have the Netanyahu bloc at 60 seats, Labor at 5-6, Meretz at 4-5, and Hadash-Ta'al and Ra'am at 4 in all 3. Balad getting support amounting to 2-3 seats in the polls, while Jewish Home gets 1-2 (and unclear if their voters would go for Likud-RZ or for Gantz), so if Bibi wins next week, it might just be thanks to Balad

worth noting that polls can't calculate Bader-Ofer and surplus agreements, hence 60 could easily become 61 or even 62

[Hnv1]

So my prediction*:
Likud 32
YA 28
RZ-NSDAP 16
Statist Party - 12
Shas -8
UTJ - 6
Meretz - 5
YB - 5
Labour - 4
Ra'am - 4

Bibi Bloc - 62

Hadash+Balad+JH under the threshold

*This includes Bader-Ofer and surpluses that both favor the right dramatically. Likud will move from 30 to 32 in the final results. YA might also gain a seat or two. one of Meretz\Labour will gain from the surpluses.

[Comrade Funk]

So my prediction*:
Likud 32
YA 28
RZ-NSDAP 16
Statist Party - 12
Shas -8
UTJ - 6
Meretz - 5
YB - 5
Labour - 4
Ra'am - 4

Bibi Bloc - 62

Hadash+Balad+JH under the threshold

*This includes Bader-Ofer and surpluses that both favor the right dramatically. Likud will move from 30 to 32 in the final results. YA might also gain a seat or two. one of Meretz\Labour will gain from the surpluses.

We'll see if the American Jewish groups have any backbone if this comes to fruition. There can be no excuses if that's what we get.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sorry I've been out of the loop for a while (there's only so many depressing elections I can focus on at any given time) but what the f**k is the Statist Party?

[rc18]

Sorry I've been out of the loop for a while (there's only so many depressing elections I can focus on at any given time) but what the f**k is the Statist Party?

The new alliance of Blue & White / Benny Gantz + Star Wars Episode 4, A New Hope party.  The name doesn't translate well into English as it doesn't have the same connotations, so gets called National Unity Party instead.

[Estrella]

Sorry I've been out of the loop for a while (there's only so many depressing elections I can focus on at any given time) but what the f**k is the Statist Party?

A party for people who aren't left wing in any way but voted Labor most of their lives out of tribalism, and/or an attempt to give patrician retired generals, sleazy populist grifters and other such centrist darlings some ideological legs to stand on, and/or a Lincoln Project-esque halfway house for people who are Likudniks but Not Like That.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I see, thanks for filling me in. I guess I should have guessed it since I should have known Gantz and Saar were still limping around somewhere.

[America Needs R'hllor]

I guess I'll give my prediction, as worthless as it is:

Likud 35
YA 24
RZ-NSDAP 13
Statist Party - 9
Shas -8
UTJ - 7
YB - 6
Labour - 5
Meretz - 5
Ra'am - 4
Hadash-Ta'al - 4
Balad - 0
JH - 0

Bibi Bloc - 63

[Pres Mike]

When will we know results?

[xelas81]

Considering Bibi's age (he is 73), has he made any statements about serving a full term if he becomes PM again?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Considering Bibi's age (he is 73), has he made any statements about serving a full term if he becomes PM again?

Berlusconi says hi

[Mike88]

When will we know results?

Exit polls are normally accurate and results will start to be known during the early hours of the morning.

[danny]

Considering Bibi's age (he is 73), has he made any statements about serving a full term if he becomes PM again?

As far as I know, Bibi has made no indication that he plans to retire any time soon. Although even if he served a full term he would still be younger than Biden when he entered office and as old as Lula is now, so he wouldn't be unusually old, and I haven't heard of him having any serious health issues.

[Hnv1]

When will we know results?

If it’s clear cut we’ll know by morning. If it’s a close one we’ll have to wait for the all the double envelopes to be counted by Friday morning

[Cassius]

Being the King of Israel and knowing his ego I assume he plans to outlast Solomon’s record, so he still has another 24 years to run.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sorry I've been out of the loop for a while (there's only so many depressing elections I can focus on at any given time) but what the f**k is the Statist Party?

A party for people who aren't left wing in any way but voted Labor most of their lives out of tribalism, and/or an attempt to give patrician retired generals, sleazy populist grifters and other such centrist darlings some ideological legs to stand on, and/or a Lincoln Project-esque halfway house for people who are Likudniks but Not Like That.

If you remember the Labor Party as it used to be, then these are the sort of people who made up its right-wing. The genepool concept is very useful for understanding Israeli politics, to the extent it can be understood.

[mileslunn]

Does Israel have exit polls and how quickly will results come in?  Still it seems like no matter who wins, it will be an unstable broad coalition that will be tough to hold together.  But I think Bibi has better odds than Lapid at creating a viable one.

[Angel of Death]

Considering Bibi's age (he is 73), has he made any statements about serving a full term if he becomes PM again?

His father lived to be 102.

[danny]

Does Israel have exit polls and how quickly will results come in?  Still it seems like no matter who wins, it will be an unstable broad coalition that will be tough to hold together.  But I think Bibi has better odds than Lapid at creating a viable one.

The exit polls come out at 10PM local time, the moment the polls close. However, you only get the top line numbers, so they become completely obsolete a few hours later when we have the real results.

[Comrade Funk]

Given the numerous political permutations possible in a multi-party Knesset, I don’t feel able to predict what the outcome of the Israeli post-election negotiations will be.

But I will make one prediction: no matter who forms the government, there will no change in the Israeli position in the conflict with the Palestinians. It is now the settled view of Jewish Israelis across the political spectrum that there should be no further concessions to the Palestinians until they are willing to admit defeat and enter into direct negotiations with Israel.

One other thing is worth noting. At the 2021 election, 379,647 Israelis voted for the various Arab parties. This is 379,647 more than have ever been able to vote in a free election in the self-styled "State of Palestine." (Not all Arab Israeli voters vote for the Arab parties, so Arab voter turnout was higher than this figure suggests.)

Of the Knesset's 120 members, 17 are currently Arab Israelis. They hold the balance of power in the current Knesset and could well do so in the next one as well. They thus hold more democratic power than any member of any legislature in the entire Arab world.

Yes, the Arabs inside Israel's 1967 borders have minimal, basic political rights. Brag to me when b they extend the franchise to non Jews inside the west bank.

[Walmart_shopper]

When will we know results?

Exit polls are normally accurate and results will start to be known during the early hours of the morning.

Exit polls are rarely wildly inaccurate, but they do have a tendency to inflate the size of the right wing bloc by at least a couple seats. Usually they are revised within a couple hours once results start to come in.

[Walmart_shopper]

As of 10am 15.9% have already voted, the largest 10am turnout since 1981