Israel 2022 election (November 1st)

[Hnv1]

At this point, who does Blue & White represent and what do they stand for (as opposed to, say, Yesh Atid)?

A bit less urban, they are stronger in the Moshavim. A bit older. Professional army men and veterans. Old hawkish Labour voters. young "apolitical" voters. etc.

YA tilt slightly more to the left and has a more urban and liberal vibe. A younger vibe altogether.

That's why we see a bigger vote shift from Meretz to YA, and from Labour to B&W than from any of the other combinations.

It will be interesting to see how Eisenkot's imminent entrance to YA will affect their "civilian" image.

The ideological differences are minor. Gantz seems to like to talk more about the Palestinian issue than Lapid, who prefers to stay in the social liberal issues ballpark. B&W has a more protectionist attitude, with MKs Bitton and Shuster lobbying for farmers and some interest groups (like army professionals). YA is more liberal and doesn't really cater to any interest group, well, part for the tech and finance industry.
B&W likes to talk about "security", YA likes to talk about society.

[Mike88]

My sweet summer child, would Israel have ended up here if their politicians were inclined to follow the best course of action?

You have a point, to be fair.

Most parties care more about survival than resolving the crisis. Anyhow, after 2019A the risk became quite salient and even if the bar raises parties will ad hoc merge to yield the same standstill.

I also don't think a fragmented society like Israel should have such a high threshold that would prevents a lot of groups from being politically represented. Furthermore, the political standoff is a deep struggle that won't be resolved by twicking election laws or procedure. One side must come out of this victorious and ungracious in victory

Well, mergers or electoral coalitions between parties are benefited by the D'Hondt method. I mean, if Likud+rightwing parties form a coalition/merger and then YA+Labour+other centrist parties also form a coalition, you would have 2 big blocs that would get a pretty good electoral mandate, and even if they don't get a majority, smaller parties that may pass the threshold could become crucial and the outcomes would become clearer. And in terms of party survival, perhaps negotiating seats between them may be a safer bet than risking an electoral campaign and they elect zero mandates. (I know this is only a dream, but in other countries this would be a logical step.)

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

At this point, who does Blue & White represent and what do they stand for (as opposed to, say, Yesh Atid)?

A bit less urban, they are stronger in the Moshavim. A bit older. Professional army men and veterans. Old hawkish Labour voters. young "apolitical" voters. etc.

YA tilt slightly more to the left and has a more urban and liberal vibe. A younger vibe altogether.

That's why we see a bigger vote shift from Meretz to YA, and from Labour to B&W than from any of the other combinations.

It will be interesting to see how Eisenkot's imminent entrance to YA will affect their "civilian" image.

The ideological differences are minor. Gantz seems to like to talk more about the Palestinian issue than Lapid, who prefers to stay in the social liberal issues ballpark. B&W has a more protectionist attitude, with MKs Bitton and Shuster lobbying for farmers and some interest groups (like army professionals). YA is more liberal and doesn't really cater to any interest group, well, part for the tech and finance industry.
B&W likes to talk about "security", YA likes to talk about society.

I feel like Blue and White would be a natural coalition partner for Likud but for the fact that they do not trust Netanyahu as an individual. Yesh Atid on the other hand comes form a different secular, center-left tradition that does not mesh nearly as well with Likud and it's nationalist, right-wing stance, or with Likud's allies in the Haredi parties.

[Vosem]

At this point, who does Blue & White represent and what do they stand for (as opposed to, say, Yesh Atid)?

A bit less urban, they are stronger in the Moshavim. A bit older. Professional army men and veterans. Old hawkish Labour voters. young "apolitical" voters. etc.

YA tilt slightly more to the left and has a more urban and liberal vibe. A younger vibe altogether.

That's why we see a bigger vote shift from Meretz to YA, and from Labour to B&W than from any of the other combinations.

It will be interesting to see how Eisenkot's imminent entrance to YA will affect their "civilian" image.

The ideological differences are minor. Gantz seems to like to talk more about the Palestinian issue than Lapid, who prefers to stay in the social liberal issues ballpark. B&W has a more protectionist attitude, with MKs Bitton and Shuster lobbying for farmers and some interest groups (like army professionals). YA is more liberal and doesn't really cater to any interest group, well, part for the tech and finance industry.
B&W likes to talk about "security", YA likes to talk about society.

I feel like Blue and White would be a natural coalition partner for Likud but for the fact that they do not trust Netanyahu as an individual. Yesh Atid on the other hand comes form a different secular, center-left tradition that does not mesh nearly as well with Likud and it's nationalist, right-wing stance, or with Likud's allies in the Haredi parties.

This is even more true for Yisrael Beiteinu, which was part of Bibi's coalition from 2009-2019. The solution for this crisis is for Likud to ditch Bibi as leader, or alternatively persuade enough floor-crossers to take the majority themselves. (Note that Bibi's alleged skill at negotiating has really fallen through: he had 60 seats at the April 2019 election without Liberman, so he needed just 1 more vote. After the September election, Gadi Yevarkan switched to Likud, and he had been courted extensively during that summer...but it all somehow came to naught.)

[Hnv1]

At this point, who does Blue & White represent and what do they stand for (as opposed to, say, Yesh Atid)?

A bit less urban, they are stronger in the Moshavim. A bit older. Professional army men and veterans. Old hawkish Labour voters. young "apolitical" voters. etc.

YA tilt slightly more to the left and has a more urban and liberal vibe. A younger vibe altogether.

That's why we see a bigger vote shift from Meretz to YA, and from Labour to B&W than from any of the other combinations.

It will be interesting to see how Eisenkot's imminent entrance to YA will affect their "civilian" image.

The ideological differences are minor. Gantz seems to like to talk more about the Palestinian issue than Lapid, who prefers to stay in the social liberal issues ballpark. B&W has a more protectionist attitude, with MKs Bitton and Shuster lobbying for farmers and some interest groups (like army professionals). YA is more liberal and doesn't really cater to any interest group, well, part for the tech and finance industry.
B&W likes to talk about "security", YA likes to talk about society.

I feel like Blue and White would be a natural coalition partner for Likud but for the fact that they do not trust Netanyahu as an individual. Yesh Atid on the other hand comes form a different secular, center-left tradition that does not mesh nearly as well with Likud and it's nationalist, right-wing stance, or with Likud's allies in the Haredi parties.

This is even more true for Yisrael Beiteinu, which was part of Bibi's coalition from 2009-2019. The solution for this crisis is for Likud to ditch Bibi as leader, or alternatively persuade enough floor-crossers to take the majority themselves. (Note that Bibi's alleged skill at negotiating has really fallen through: he had 60 seats at the April 2019 election without Liberman, so he needed just 1 more vote. After the September election, Gadi Yevarkan switched to Likud, and he had been courted extensively during that summer...but it all somehow came to naught.)

It is a known fact that the right wing parties is larger than the Bibi bloc and reaches 70 seats on average (it's not always easyo to classify some YA and B&W voters as centrist or leftist).

However, as I expressed in the past the old right/left division of Israeli politics is dead. This is a new party system between Nationalist-populists and supporters of liberal democracy (in a broad sense).

[Hnv1]

A barrage of polls. The Bibi bloc is between 55-60 but never 61. It seems the only way they squeeze the 61 is if 2/3 of Meretz\NH\Yamina will be below the threshold.
Meretz are the most fragile with voters very displeased but Michaeli of Labour is against any union. She still thinks she could be a future PM and a merger would push her to the left. She may have not gotten the memo but no one finds her PM material or centrist.
Yamina and NH will merge or rum-Yamina will join NH, I have no doubt about it.

Maariv poll:
Likud 34
YA 21
NZ 9
B&W 8
Shas 7
Labour 7
UTJ 7
JL 6
YB 5
Yamina 4
NH 4
Ra'am 4
Meretz 4

Parties that will hold a members primaries: Likud (only for the list), Labour, Meretz, Ra'am

that's it. YA are planning their first primaries in the next cycle

[Vosem]

A barrage of polls. The Bibi bloc is between 55-60 but never 61. It seems the only way they squeeze the 61 is if 2/3 of Meretz\NH\Yamina will be below the threshold.
Meretz are the most fragile with voters very displeased but Michaeli of Labour is against any union. She still thinks she could be a future PM and a merger would push her to the left. She may have not gotten the memo but no one finds her PM material or centrist.
Yamina and NH will merge or rum-Yamina will join NH, I have no doubt about it.

Maariv poll:
Likud 34
YA 21
NZ 9
B&W 8
Shas 7
Labour 7
UTJ 7
JL 6
YB 5
Yamina 4
NH 4
Ra'am 4
Meretz 4

Parties that will hold a members primaries: Likud (only for the list), Labour, Meretz, Ra'am

that's it. YA are planning their first primaries in the next cycle

This is just a redux of the (very well-hung) September 2019/2020 elections, right? Unless YB rejoins the right bloc, the only solution is a grand coalition. Ra'am-to-Yamina isn't an option anymore, either.

Much as Bibi stayed PM through all of the elections which didn't return a government, does Lapid remain in power until the next election which actually produces a government? That could take quite a while -- seems to me very plausibly years.

[Hnv1]

A barrage of polls. The Bibi bloc is between 55-60 but never 61. It seems the only way they squeeze the 61 is if 2/3 of Meretz\NH\Yamina will be below the threshold.
Meretz are the most fragile with voters very displeased but Michaeli of Labour is against any union. She still thinks she could be a future PM and a merger would push her to the left. She may have not gotten the memo but no one finds her PM material or centrist.
Yamina and NH will merge or rum-Yamina will join NH, I have no doubt about it.

Maariv poll:
Likud 34
YA 21
NZ 9
B&W 8
Shas 7
Labour 7
UTJ 7
JL 6
YB 5
Yamina 4
NH 4
Ra'am 4
Meretz 4

Parties that will hold a members primaries: Likud (only for the list), Labour, Meretz, Ra'am

that's it. YA are planning their first primaries in the next cycle

This is just a redux of the (very well-hung) September 2019/2020 elections, right? Unless YB rejoins the right bloc, the only solution is a grand coalition. Ra'am-to-Yamina isn't an option anymore, either.

Much as Bibi stayed PM through all of the elections which didn't return a government, does Lapid remain in power until the next election which actually produces a government? That could take quite a while -- seems to me very plausibly years.

Yes, the government remains in place until a new one is sworn in, there is no vacuum of authority in Israeli constitutional law. The common law includes restrictions on interim governments according to different SC precedents but if we really won’t have a government for two years I suppose they will have to give Lapid more authority.

There is one lacunae and that is what happens if Yamina evaporates and Bennett dies/resigns from government all together. Technically Lapid can’t fire NH/Yamina ministers but without an alternate PM it’s not entirely clear what will happen.

I think that either Bibi forms a government or Lapid forms a minority government with Ra’am and the JL supporting from the outside. If we do reach a sixth cycle I don’t think Bibi will lead Likud going into it.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Sorry for the lack of substantive input here, but if you ever decide to put a subtitle in the topic I propose:

"Bibi, come back!" or "Hit me, Bibi, one more time!"

[Hnv1]

Labour leadership primaries scheduled for July 18 (expected to win). Meanwhile Michaeli rules out any merger with Meretz and thinks she's future PM material.

lord have mercy

[Hnv1]

After a bit of procrastination with the opposition still trying to form an alternative government without an election they did the arithmetic and understood it's futile. The Knesset will dissolve tomorrow and Lapid will be PM on midnight (I'm still of the opinion he should be listed on the Israeli list of PMs and should be treated like Yigal Alon).

The election date is still on debate. The opposition wants October 25 as it's before the end of the Yeshiva boys semester break. The coalition would prefer it be scheduled on November 1\7

[Hnv1]

Dissolving the house might be delayed until tomorrow.

Bennett will soon announce he will not run in the coming election cycle. Yamina won’t either I suppose. Matan Kahane will join NH and perhaps a more centrist party, the rest will have to find their own way,

[Angel of Death]

With Shaked taking over the party's leadership from Bennett, the fiction that Yamina was somehow part of the anti-Netanyahu bloc should finally be snuffed out. The latest poll gives Bibi & co. 63 seats.

[Hnv1]

With Shaked taking over the party's leadership from Bennett, the fiction that Yamina was somehow part of the anti-Netanyahu bloc should finally be snuffed out. The latest poll gives Bibi & co. 63 seats.

Suspicious poll done ex ante the announcement.

I don't think Shaked has this much support, she hardly has a party. Kahane is already on the way out to either B&W or NH. Kara is heading to YB it seems. Silman and Orbach are knee deep in Likud. Shikli has to run alone.

I think Shaked will either concede and take some 5th place with Smotric or withdraw. There isn't 3.25% of the voters who want her by herself, we've been here on 2019B

[Hnv1]

Dissolved. The GE will be held on November 1 so we need to correct the OP.

Lapid will become PM tonight at midnight (for reasons I can't quite understand it's not on the spot)

[America Needs R'hllor]

Well let's see what happens. My guess is that Michaeli will eventually be pressured to merge with Meretz. That party will get like 6 seats, so we probably won't be seeing excellent MKs like Ibtisam Maraana in the next Knesset.

[America Needs R'hllor]

https://twitter.com/IsraeliPM/status/1542613951527239680?s=20&t=CjksyiFfklfK...

Completely unimaginable just a couple years ago.

[Hnv1]

First poll after the dissolving of the house (Maariv):

Likud 34
YA 21
Smotric 10
B&W 9
Shas 8
UTJ 7
JL 6
NH 5
YB 5
Yamina 4
Ra'am 4
Meretz 0 (2.2%)

Likud bloc is on 59 with Yamina it's 63. Meretz are below the threshold, they're even below the old threshold. If they're out of the game the Bibi bloc loses 1-2 seats.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wait...again?! Is this because of how unstable the anti-Bibi coalition is and that they don't really agree on anything besides hating Bibi?

[Hnv1]

Wait...again?! Is this because of how unstable the anti-Bibi coalition is and that they don't really agree on anything besides hating Bibi?

If by hating Bibi you mean wanting a liberal democracy with a rule of law then yeah they don’t agree on anything more

[jaymichaud]

Smotty’s party should be banned from running. Racist bastard

[warandwar]

Smotty’s party should be banned from running. Racist bastard

As opposed to Avigdor Lieberman? (when i grew up thats who everyone in the community in the us said was the big baddie). At this point the libs rely on Ben-Gvir being a candidate to (unsuccessfully) scare ppl into supporting them so i dont think the Court will ban anyone anytime soon.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Unsurprising, but I see Lapid's campaign strategy is definitely going to be 'I am the Prime Minister '.

[MaxQue]

Wait...again?! Is this because of how unstable the anti-Bibi coalition is and that they don't really agree on anything besides hating Bibi?

There was some defections and the government lost its majority.

[Hnv1]

Unsurprising, but I see Lapid's campaign strategy is definitely going to be 'I am the Prime Minister '.

Lapid isn't going to campaign much himself. He's going to be antithetic to Bibi and act like he's PM and too busy for elections.
The main aim is to get YA to 20-25 seats area whilst keeping Meretz and Labour on 4 seats at most, or best still merge, and more importantly, keep B&W under 10 seats.
A big merger in the centre-right that will put Gantz with 15 seats would be his nightmare.

The Likud primaries are going to be delicious. 50 ego maniacs arguing over 20seats (the Likud system allocates spots on the list to regional candidates who aren't MKs yet). Edelstein dropped out of the leadership primaries so I don't think they'll be held.

Labour leadership primaries are going to be an electoral type event, the list primaries might be interesting as Michaeli will try putting more of her people in.

Meretz will have leadership primaries. It seems Golan will go against Horowitz with Zandberg joining the mix. zero enthusiasm for either. The list primaries will be as dull as ever with no interesting new candidate.

Smotric party is going to have primaries as well. Dov Halbertal, a anti-zionist Haredi announced he's running against Smotric for laughs.