Gerald Ford assassinated in 1975

[pragmatic liberal]

Let's say that one of the assassination attempts on Gerald Ford in 1975 in California succeeds.

With little over a year left in presidency, Nelson Rockefeller suddenly becomes president. (That in itself would be interesting - the United States would have had 3 presidents within a single 4-year term.)

Does Rockefeller win the Republican nomination as an incumbent? Ronald Reagan would almost certainly have run but will he succeed? Rockefeller being more liberal, one would think that Reagan would be more likely to pull out a win. Rockefeller would, however, gain from being the incumbent and would be untainted by the Nixon pardon.

I would think that Rockefeller is beaten by Reagan, who goes on to lose to Carter in November.

Does history unfold any differently? If Reagan does well enough against Carter, does he get renominated in 1980? (And history unfolds as expected.)

OR do GOP elders and primary voters decide that Reagan's had his chance and nominate someone else - perhaps Bob Dole or Howard Baker in 1980? If we assume the Carter presidency unfolded as it did in real life, does Dole or Baker get elected in 1980 and serve 2 terms?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If Reagan is knocked out of the running in 1980 for losing in 1976, then Connolly has to be considered the front-runner fro the GOP nomination in 1980.  He probably still loses the nomination by using an old-fashioned national strategy instead of concentrating on the early States, but I imagine the $11 million he spends gets him more than the 1 delegate he got in OTL.