Nevada Poll

[Storebought]

http://washingtontimes.com/upi-breaking/20040628-012515-7576r.htm

It's in the Washington Times (a paper even I don't read), but the byline is UPI.

Says Bush leads Kerry 49/44/7 without Nader

[The Vorlon]

Fixing the link:

http://washingtontimes.com/upi-breaking/20040628-012515-7576r.htm

A better link actually"

http://www.krnv.com/Global/story.asp?S=1970212&nav=8faOODO6

This poll is actually only of PART of Nevada, but they don't tell use which exact counties so it is hard to know what it actually shows.

Taking a semi-educated guess, I think it is actually good news for Kerry, but I really not sure

[Storebought]

http://washingtontimes.com/upi-breaking/20040628-012515-7576r.htm

Fixed it. Slip of the finger.

This poll was taken a few days after Bush's visit to Reno. Considering Reno's tiny size relative to the rest of the state, it should not have made that large a difference?

[ATFFL]

Well, it says Washoe county/regional poll.  So I would guess it is the county and maybe its neighbors.  In that case, it looks to be about the same as 2000.

[NHPolitico]

Well, it says Washoe county/regional poll.  So I would guess it is the county and maybe its neighbors.  In that case, it looks to be about the same as 2000.

Which is good enough for Bush if it is such statewide.

[millwx]

Well, it says Washoe county/regional poll.  So I would guess it is the county and maybe its neighbors.  In that case, it looks to be about the same as 2000.

Actually, given the closeness of this race, in general, these results are not very similar at all to 2000.  Bush took Washoe County by almost 10% in 2000.  This is a 4-5% improvement for Kerry (compared to Gore) from 2000.  Bush won NV by 3.5% in 2000.  So, if this Washoe County trend is consistent across the state (which I am not saying it is!), then Kerry currently leads in NV.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

It's in the Washington Times (a paper even I don't read), but the byline is UPI.

Consider the source. The Washington Times and UPI are owned by Sun Myung Moon, who uses his media outlets to advance right-wing causes.

[ATFFL]

Well, it says Washoe county/regional poll.  So I would guess it is the county and maybe its neighbors.  In that case, it looks to be about the same as 2000.

Actually, given the closeness of this race, in general, these results are not very similar at all to 2000.  Bush took Washoe County by almost 10% in 2000.  This is a 4-5% improvement for Kerry (compared to Gore) from 2000.  Bush won NV by 3.5% in 2000.  So, if this Washoe County trend is consistent across the state (which I am not saying it is!), then Kerry currently leads in NV.

Bush won by exactly 8% by getting 44% of the votes in the county.  WHen you factor in Nader (who was present in 2000) Bush is winning by 6%.   Things are about the same.

[The Vorlon]

IF...

You take the Dec 2003 Nevada voter registration data

http://sos.state.nv.us/nvelection/voter_reg/2003/1203main.htm

and IF....

 the results for Dems/Reps/Indys project out over the entire state in the same ratio...

This is what you get...



Maybe a couple percent or so better for Bush than in 2000 where Bush won by 3.55%

Doing this is not irrational...

But those are two BIG ifs...

[millwx]

Bush won by exactly 8% by getting 44% of the votes in the county.  WHen you factor in Nader (who was present in 2000) Bush is winning by 6%.   Things are about the same.

Huh?  In 2000 Bush took Washoe County by 9.4%.  Bush had  52.0% of the vote.  Gore had 42.6%.  That's a 9.4% victory for Bush.  He's ahead by 6% in this poll.  A 3.4% improvement for Kerry.  Without Nader, Bush is only up 5%... a 4.4% improvement for Kerry.  So, Kerry is up 3-5% (sorry, I said 4-5%) over Gore's 2000 numbers.  I have no idea where you got the figures of Bush winning Washoe County in 2000 by 8% with 44% of the vote (that would mean Gore took 36%... who took the other 20%?).  But I got the number right off of here... from Dave's site  Bush took Washoe by 9+% and now leads by 5-6%... a 3-5% drop.

[The Vorlon]

Consider the source. The Washington Times and UPI are owned by Sun Myung Moon, who uses his media outlets to advance right-wing causes.

The poll was done by Research2000 - Most of the Staff of Research2000 are actually formerly partrisan Democrats, that being said they are honest pollsters and I have never detected any bias in what they do.

[ATFFL]

Bush won by exactly 8% by getting 44% of the votes in the county.  WHen you factor in Nader (who was present in 2000) Bush is winning by 6%.   Things are about the same.

Huh?  In 2000 Bush took Washoe County by 9.4%.  Bush had  52.0% of the vote.  Gore had 42.6%.  That's a 9.4% victory for Bush.  He's ahead by 6% in this poll.  A 3.4% improvement for Kerry.  Without Nader, Bush is only up 5%... a 4.4% improvement for Kerry.  So, Kerry is up 3-5% (sorry, I said 4-5%) over Gore's 2000 numbers.  I have no idea where you got the figures of Bush winning Washoe County in 2000 by 8% with 44% of the vote (that would mean Gore took 36%... who took the other 20%?).  But I got the number right off of here... from Dave's site  Bush took Washoe by 9+% and now leads by 5-6%... a 3-5% drop.

I see the difference, I use the numbers including those with no vote (thus factoring in undecideds as well) while you use only those with votes cast.

[The Vorlon]

Something is wrong with this poll's writeup!



If you take the partisan breakout provide, and just multiply it out, the reported result is wrong.

Either the reported voting patterns by party ID are wrong, or the reported lead is wrong.

No way to tell..



BUt if we simply do the math...

In this poll...47% are GOP, bush gets 89% of Republicans..

.47 x .89 = 41.84%

Dems are 32%, and Bush gets 11%...

.32 X .11 = 3.53%

Indys are 21% and Bush gets 47%

.21 x .47 = 9.84%

41.84 + 3.53 + 9.84 => 55.2%

Something is wrong somewhere

I am GUESSING that the "reported" result is a projection for the entire state ?? assuming vote by party ID holds state wide. ??

Maybe they "tried" to turn a county poll into a "state" poll but this got mis-communicated ??

No way to know

But based on the distribution provided, somethng is wrong...

[MODU]

Damn Vorlon,

Remind me never to have you teach a Statistics class.  hehehe . . . wouldn't want you to send the kids home more confused than when they were when they entered.    And I ACED statistics too!  hahaha

Maybe I should have enrolled in logic instead.........  

[The Vorlon]

Damn Vorlon,

Remind me never to have you teach a Statistics class.  hehehe . . . wouldn't want you to send the kids home more confused than when they were when they entered.    And I ACED statistics too!  hahaha

Maybe I should have enrolled in logic instead.........  

Something in the story is wrong...

That's all I know.

Clear as mud right?

[MODU]

Crystal.  

[The Vorlon]

Crystal.  

This poll had 602 people in it.

283 of them were Republicans.

89% of republicans "voted" for Bush in this poll
5% of republicans "voted" for Kerry in this poll

283 x .89 => 252 for Bush
283 x .05 => 14 for Kerry

193 of them were Democrats.

83%% of Democrats "voted" for Kerry in this poll
11% of Democrats "voted" for Bush in this poll

193 x .83 => 160 for Kerry
193 x .11 => 21 for Bush

126 of them were Independants

47%% of Independants "voted" for Bush in this poll
44% of Independents "voted" for kerry in this poll

126 x .47 => 59 for Bush
126 x .44 => 55 for Kerry

Bush Supporters

Republicans = 252
Democrats = 21
Independants = 59

Total = 332/602 => 55% BUSH

Kerry Supporters

Republicans = 14
Democrats = 160
Independants = 55

Total = 229/602 => 38% KERRY

QED

[ATFFL]

You have a graphic for this Vorlon?  Something along the lines of "so screwed up Hawking is confused"?

[ATFFL]

I follow your math and all, but I meant one of those cute Vorlon approved or yellow journalism or hot dog poll graphics of yours.

[The Vorlon]

I follow your math and all, but I meant one of those cute Vorlon approved or yellow journalism or hot dog poll graphics of yours.

Sorry I misunderstood your post

Here is a new Graphic, in honor of your suggestion:

[Bandit3 the Worker]

283 Republicans and 193 Democrats?

No wonder the poll has such a Republican bias.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well if this poll is only for the Reno area, that's a pretty accurate ratio of Republicans to Democrats in that area.

But any poll that doesn't include Clark county, which contains over 2/3 of the state's population, is worthless.

[ATFFL]

I heartily approve.

[The Vorlon]

283 Republicans and 193 Democrats?

No wonder the poll has such a Republican bias.

The polling firm established voting quotas to exactly match the actual voter registrations in that county.

The 283/193 ratio matches EXACTLY the actual registrations in the county.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

283 Republicans and 193 Democrats?

No wonder the poll has such a Republican bias.

The polling firm established voting quotas to exactly match the actual voter registrations in that county.

The 283/193 ratio matches EXACTLY the actual registrations in the county.

that's basically what I said. But as I pointed out, just that county is meaningless. Clark is the only county that matters in Nevada.