June 23rd Battleground Poll - Bush +2

[The Vorlon]

http://www.tarrance.com/battleground/9786BGCharts.pdf

This poll is a classic goodnews/bad news poll.

In the "unaided ballot" question Kerry has gained 2% and now trails by just 2%, however in the Assisted ballot Bush gained 1% and is now tied.

Bush Job approval is up 1% to 51% versus last Battleground poll.

Strong improvement on economic matters for Bush, mild decline on National security/Iraq related matters.

Dems retain strong advantage on questions related to income redistribution, Kerry has grown a bit is personal positives, and has a modestly more positive set of favorability ratings than Bush.

Bush continues to have a substantial advantage on "character" issues.

Generically speaking, the "Democratic party" is viewed modestly more favorabably than the "Republican Party"

The $90 million in ads Bush has run attacking Kerry seems to have modestly done more damage to Kerry, than the $110 million Kerry and his 527 friends spent have done damage to Bush.

We are in the exact opposite phase from where the campaign was a few months ago.

In April when Bush was getting tons of bad news, Democrats were saying "Why the %#@! are Bush's numbers not droppping more?"

We are now getting very close to July and the economic perceptions of the population have clearly turned positive and the Republicans are saying "Why the #$%@! arr Bush's numbers not rising more?"

I think this poll is luke warm good news for Bush when taken it it's totality.



A FEW TECHNICAL NOTES:

This poll is one of the few that does an absolute hard weight by party ID.

I disagree with doing a hard weight like this, but again it's a 55/45 thing - you can make good arguments either way

(Joe Montana threw a lot of TDs on passes he "should not have thrown" also)

When you get the breakout right, your polls are deadly accurate, when you get it wrong, you structurally miss the mark.

In 1992 this poll was just dead on - they got the result exactly right.

In 1996 they missed by just 1%

In 2000 their turnout model was wong and the missed by 5%.

An AVERAGE error of just 2% over the last 3 races is excellent.

An error of 5% in 2000 is not so good...

More good news / bad news...

That warning aside,

This is from two very, very deeply respected and admired pollsters, one a Republican, and one a Democrat.

Read this poll, and the companion notes from the Republican (Ed Goaes) and the Democrat (Celinda Lake) VERY carefully.  There is more REAL information here than in 10 "media" polls.

[ATFFL]

Edit-  You couldn't have just put it up ina new thread, eh?  Had to make our old comments look silly.

A lot of mixed messages in there.  I think the bes t for Bush is how optomistic people ar ewhen asked to look forward to about election time.

What is the ID for party ID?  I figure it is reasonable or you would have said something.

[lonestar]

nvm

[Fritz]

It almost seems contradictory.

P. 2- If the election for President were held today, and you had to make a choice, for which candidate would you probably vote?
George Bush- 43%
John Kerry- 39%
Unsure- 15%
Ralph Nader- 1%
Other- 1%

P. 8- Thinking about the election for President that will be held in November 2004- If the election for Pressident were held today, would you be voting for the Republican candidate or the Democrat candidate?
Republican- 46%
Democrat- 48%
Undecided- 6%

P. 10- Do you feel that George W. Bush has done his job as President well enough to deserve re-election, or do you feel it is time to give someone new a chance?
Re-Elect- 48%
New Person- 49%
Unsure/Refused- 3%


P. 13- Still thinking about the elections in November- If the election was held today, and you had to make a choice, would you vote to re-elect President Bush no matter who ran against him?
Yes- 37%
No- 57%
Unsure- 7%

[Fritz]

Vorlon,

Was this poll really done March 28-31 or is that a mistake on the .pdf?

Wrong link - Poll is embargoed till tomorrow morning - link removed

After I spent all that time typing the above.  Hmmph!  

[ATFFL]

Edit-  You couldn't have just put it up ina new thread, eh?  Had to make our old comments look silly.

You can just delete your post

But I was the first responder.  The first!  You can't just give that up, its like stepping out of line in the DMV when you are at the front.

[CARLHAYDEN]

OK - the embargo is off - the pol is now officially out - the right link is up

Couldn't get the link to display.

Do we need a new link?

[The Vorlon]

Edit-  You couldn't have just put it up ina new thread, eh?  Had to make our old comments look silly.

You can just delete your post

But I was the first responder.  The first!  You can't just give that up, its like stepping out of line in the DMV when you are at the front.

Ok...

Good Botox........Bad Botox

[The Vorlon]

OK - the embargo is off - the pol is now officially out - the right link is up

Couldn't get the link to display.

Do we need a new link?

Link is ok - works for me

[MODU]

UGH!  I read the story about that gal, and the allergy she has to the hair dye.  Man that has to suck!

[Reds4]

Link works fine for me. Vorlon, didn't you say that in general summertime polls can underpoll Republicans by a couple points? Do you think this Iraqi handover may give Bush a couple point bump in the next few days? I figure it might, but it would only be temporary.

[The Vorlon]

Link works fine for me. Vorlon, didn't you say that in general summertime polls can underpoll Republicans by a couple points? Do you think this Iraqi handover may give Bush a couple point bump in the next few days? I figure it might, but it would only be temporary.

Battleground is a VERY good poll, I would be very surprized if there is anything structurally wrong with this poll.  An ARG you can throw out in the Summer, but a Battleground poll is done correctly - sorry.. no "summer fade" in effect in this poll.

Iraq handover bounce... ?

Maybe a sense of relief, as in taking off a negative, which is really a positive?

Maybe...

The economy will either save Bush, or not.

Iraq is getting "priced into" people's brains right now, so it may fade a bit as an issue..

The race is structurally very, very, very close.  

[Reds4]

I did not mean Battleground itself. I meant just a generic polling organization, you had said if there is a temporary shift at all it is to the Dems in the summer correct?

[The Vorlon]

I did not mean Battleground itself. I meant just a generic polling organization, you had said if there is a temporary shift at all it is to the Dems in the summer correct?

Varried HUGELY from poll to poll.

Uni-polls will shift
Many locally done state polls will also shift.

"Top" tier firms will be fine, but other than that... grain of salt and all that