New CBS/NYT Poll

[lonestar]

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/06/28/opinion/polls/main626478.shtml


Kerry: 45%
Bush: 44%

Vorlon, I've been reading here for a while, and you don't think this is a good poll to look at right?  

[The Vorlon]

Bush Job Approval

Rasmussen  6/24 - 6/26 50%
Fox News  6/22 - 6/23 49%
CNN/Gallup/USA Today  6/21 - 6/23 48%
Wash Post/ABC News 6/17 - 6/20 47%
Annenberg 6/8 - 6/21 52%
Harris 6/8 - 6/15 50%
Pew Research 6/3 - 6/13 48%
NPR/GQR 6/6 - 6/10 50% 48%
Fox News 6/8 - 6/9 48%
AP-Ipsos 6/7- 6/9 48%
LA Times  6/5- 6/8 51%
Gallup  6/3 - 6/6 49%

CBS Today - 42%

One of these things.. is not like the others...

[lonestar]

When Nader is included, it is:

Bush: 43%
Kerry: 42%
Nader: 6%

[ATFFL]

Bush Job Approval

Rasmussen  6/24 - 6/26 50%
Fox News  6/22 - 6/23 49%
CNN/Gallup/USA Today  6/21 - 6/23 48%
Wash Post/ABC News 6/17 - 6/20 47%
Annenberg 6/8 - 6/21 52%
Harris 6/8 - 6/15 50%
Pew Research 6/3 - 6/13 48%
NPR/GQR 6/6 - 6/10 50% 48%
Fox News 6/8 - 6/9 48%
AP-Ipsos 6/7- 6/9 48%
LA Times  6/5- 6/8 51%
Gallup  6/3 - 6/6 49%

CBS Today - 42%

One of these things.. is not like the others...

Hehehe.
Looking at the poll history and how it compares to the average at the time, this is really equivalent to Bush +3.

[The Vorlon]

Party ID in CBS Poll

GOP = 28.77%
DEM = 35.14%
ING = 36.09%

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/CBSNews_polls/election_back.pdf

[zorkpolitics]

Kerry up by only 1 in this poll is quite a good result for Bush

Despite the skewing towards Democrats, despite the out of range approval number, Bush trailed by only 1 (vs 7% in the last CBS poll) .

Moreover when asked how they rate the economy irght now...
Good 58%
Bad 41%

Also not good for Kerry:  when people are asked about Kerry.
Says what he believes 34%
Says what people want to hear 55%
Bush's numbers are just the reverse.

[agcatter]

Do we know for sure this PARTICULAR CBS poll is skewed toward the Dems?  Maybe they fixed it this time.

Oh Vorlon.....

[The Vorlon]

Do we know for sure this PARTICULAR CBS poll is skewed toward the Dems?  Maybe they fixed it this time.

Oh Vorlon.....

GOP = 28.77%
DEM = 35.14%
ING = 36.09%

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/CBSNews_polls/election_back.pdf

[agcatter]

You wouldn't happen to know how that compares to the party breakdown of the PREVIOUS CBS poll would you?

[The Vorlon]

You wouldn't happen to know how that compares to the party breakdown of the PREVIOUS CBS poll would you?

Last CBS Poll (May 20th)

Dems = 36.03%
GOP = 29.64%
Ind = 34.23%

[agcatter]

Wow.  Well, it definitely proves this is an apples to apples comparison.  

Definite gain for Bush relative to Kerry.  And yet, no gain in Bush's job ranking.  What do you see in the internals that might account for the gain in the Bush horse race with Kerry without a positive rise in Bush's job performance.  I take it Kerry's negatives must be up.

I was thinking maybe the improved economy but that had zero effect on the Bush job performance.  I'm confused.

[The Vorlon]

Do we know for sure this PARTICULAR CBS poll is skewed toward the Dems?  Maybe they fixed it this time.

Oh Vorlon.....

Actually the RAW sample was ok...

They DELIBERATELY broke it in the weighting process..

[ATFFL]

Do we know for sure this PARTICULAR CBS poll is skewed toward the Dems?  Maybe they fixed it this time.

Oh Vorlon.....

Actually the RAW sample was ok...

They DELIBERATELY broke it in the weighting process..

What does that say about the quality of the organizations?

[CARLHAYDEN]

Do we know for sure this PARTICULAR CBS poll is skewed toward the Dems?  Maybe they fixed it this time.

Oh Vorlon.....

Remember what I said a couple of months ago about how polls can continue to be inaccurate as long as they are inaccurate in the direction desired by by the people paying for the polls.

This (and the LA Times poll) are just two examples of what I was saying.  

Its unfortunate that with the difficulties already facing survey research firms that really try to get it right, spinmeister firms are given equal credibility by the press.

No wonder there is a decreasing confidence in the public in the credibility of public opinion polls (yes, this is based on results of a private poll - which for obvious reasons WILL NOT BE RELEASED).


Actually the RAW sample was ok...

They DELIBERATELY broke it in the weighting process..