Americans ponder their options in every U.S. presidential election held since

[Gabu]

Just for interest's sake, I thought I'd see exactly what each election would look like if a nationwide swing occurred in each of these elections to realize the popular vote found in each result.  In cases where there are numerous undecideds, I'll scale up the D-R-I percentages such that they match the total percentage realized in the actual result (for example, if the actual result was 50-45 D-R, that makes the D-R votes 95% of the result, so a poll result of 35-40 D-R would get scaled up to 44.33-50.67 to match the 95% D-R portion of the total votes).  This is, of course, not likely how the undecideds would actually break, but it's the best I can get without introducing bias through guessing how they would break.

So, to begin...

1964:
Lyndon B. Johnson (D) 50%
Barry Goldwater (R) 23%

The poll result of 50-23 equates to an election result of 68.16-31.36, which induces a 7.11% swing away from Goldwater to Johnson from the 1964 results.

Lyndon B. Johnson (D-TX) - 68.16% PV - 513 EVs (+27)
Barry Goldwater (R-AZ) - 31.36% PV - 25 EVs (-27)

1968:
Richard Nixon (R) 34%
Hubert H. Humphrey (D) 31%
George Wallace (I) 15%

The poll result of 34-31-15 equates to an election result of 42.36-38.62-18.69, which induces a 1.06% swing away from Nixon and a 4.10% swing away from Humphrey, both forming a 5.16% swing to Wallace, from the 1968 results.

Richard Nixon (R-CA*) - 42.36% PV - 327 EVs (+26)
Hubert H. Humphrey (D-MN) - 38.62% PV - 147 EVs (-44)
George Wallace (Am. Ind.-AL) - 18.69% PV - 64 EVs (+18)

*Or arguably R-NY.  It makes little difference.

1972:
George McGovern (D) 42%
Richard Nixon (R) 39%

The poll result of 42-39 equates to an election result of 50.91-47.28, which induces a 13.39% swing away from Nixon to McGovern from the 1972 results.

George McGovern (D-SD) - 50.91% PV - 329 EVs (+311)
Richard Nixon (R-CA*) - 47.28% PV - 209 EVs (-311)

*Or arguably R-NY.  It makes little difference.

1976:
Jimmy Carter (D) 52%
Gerald Ford (R) 35%

The poll result of 52-35 equates to an election result of 58.63-39.46, which induces a 8.55% swing away from Ford to Carter from the 1976 results.

Jimmy Carter (D-GA) - 58.63% PV - 519 EVs (+222)
Gerald Ford (R-MI) - 39.46% PV - 19 EVs (-222)

1980:
Ronald Reagan (R) 56%
Jimmy Carter (D) 30%
John Anderson (I) 6%

The poll result of 56-30-6 equates to an election result of 59.88-32.08-6.42, which induces a 8.93% swing away from Carter and a 0.19% swing away from Anderson, both forming a 9.13% to Reagan from the 1980 results.

Ronald Reagan (R-CA) - 59.88% PV - 535 EVs (+46)
Jimmy Carter (D-GA) - 32.08% PV - 3 EVs (-46)
John Anderson (I-IL) - 6.42% PV - 0 EVs (+/- 0)

1984:
Ronald Reagan (R) 64%
Walter Mondale (D) 24%

The poll result of 64-24 equates to an election result of 72.24-27.09, which induces a 13.47% swing away from Mondale to Reagan from the 1984 results.

Ronald Reagan (R-CA) - 72.24% PV - 535 EVs (+10)
Walter Mondale (D-MN) - 27.09% PV - 3 EVs (-10)

----

This takes a long time and I really should be getting to bed; I'll do the remaining ones tomorrow if I have time.

[Gabu]

Interesting how strongly that 1972 map coordinates with modern political geography. Only Montana, the Dakotas and New Hampshire have changed radically.

And Vermont.  If you look closely, it's only >40% D; it flipped only under the barest of margins.  I had to figure out both new percentages with a calculator to determine who would have been ahead.

EDIT: And Alaska, come to think of it.

[Gabu]

Carrying on, if only because it interests me...

1988:
George H. Bush (R) 53%
Michael Dukakis (D) 33%

The poll result of 53-33 equates to an election result of 61.02-38.00, which induces a 7.55% swing away from Dukakis to Bush from the 1988 results.

George H. W. Bush (R-TX) - 61.02% PV - 535 EVs (+108)
Michael Dukakis (D-MA) - 38.00% PV - 3 EVs (-108)

1992:
Bill Clinton (D) 52%
George H. Bush (R) 30%
Ross Perot (I) 12%

The poll result of 52-30-12 equates to an election result of 54.97-31.71-12.69, which induces a 5.74% swing away from Bush and a 6.22% swing away from Perot, both forming a 11.96% swing to Clinton from the 1992 results.

Bill Clinton (D-AR) - 54.97% PV - 532 EVs (+162)
George H. W. Bush (R-TX) - 31.71% PV - 6 EVs (-162)
Ross Perot (I-TX) - 12.69% PV - 0 EVs (+/- 0)

1996:
Bill Clinton (D) 56%
Bob Dole (R) 25%
Ross Perot (Ref.) 12%

The poll result of 56-25-12 equates to an election result of 59.22-26.44-12.69, which induces a 14.28% swing away from Dole, forming both a 9.99% swing to Clinton and a 4.29% to Perot from the 1996 results.

Bill Clinton (D-AR) - 59.22% PV - 537 EVs (+158)
Bob Dole (R-KS) - 26.44% PV - 1 EV (-158)
Ross Perot (I-TX) - 12.69% PV - 0 EVs (+/- 0)

2000:
Al Gore (D) 46%
George W. Bush (R) 38%
Ralph Nader (G) or
Pat Buchanan (Ref.) 9%

The poll result of 46-38-9 equates to an election result of 49.17-40.62-9.62, which induces a 7.25% swing away from Bush, forming both a 0.79% swing to Gore and a 6.46% swing to Nader & Buchanan from the 2000 results.

Al Gore (D-TN) - 49.17% PV - 384 EVs (+117)
George W. Bush (R-TX) - 40.62% PV - 154 EV (-117)
Ralph Nader & Pat Buchanan (G-DC & Ref.-VA) - 9.62% PV - 0 EVs (+/- 0)

Note: If you're curious which state was the new Florida here, that would be Virginia, which was won by Gore by 0.01%, 45.23-45.22.  Bush decided not to seek a recount, however.

2004:
John Kerry (D) 46%
George W. Bush (R) 40%
Ralph Nader (I) 7%

The poll result of 46-40-7 equates to an election result of 49.16-42.74-7.48, which induces a 7.99% swing away from Bush, forming both a 0.89% swing to Kerry and a 7.10% swing to Nader from the 2000 results.

John Kerry (D-MA) - 49.16% PV - 349 EVs (+97)
George W. Bush (R-TX) - 42.74% PV - 189 EV (-97)
Ralph Nader (Ref.-DC) - 7.48% PV - 0 EVs (+/- 0)

---

...and that's a wrap.

Well, I had fun, at least.

[Gabu]

Thanks Gabu

My pleasure.

NE-3 certainly is, uh, Republican.  Bill Clinton wasn't even close to taking it in 1996.

[Gabu]

Such is the power of the goddamned biased liberal media I guess

I fixed your post for you...