Americans ponder their options in every U.S. presidential election held since
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  Americans ponder their options in every U.S. presidential election held since
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Author Topic: Americans ponder their options in every U.S. presidential election held since  (Read 9807 times)
Adlai Stevenson
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« on: December 20, 2006, 01:40:36 PM »

1964:
Lyndon B. Johnson (D) 50%
Barry Goldwater (R) 23%

1968:
Richard Nixon (R) 34%
Hubert H. Humphrey (D) 31%
George Wallace (I) 15%

1972:
George McGovern (D) 42%
Richard Nixon (R) 39%

1976:
Jimmy Carter (D) 52%
Gerald Ford (R) 35%

1980:
Ronald Reagan (R) 56%
Jimmy Carter (D) 30%
John Anderson (I) 6%

1984:
Ronald Reagan (R) 64%
Walter Mondale (D) 24%

1988:
George H. Bush (R) 53%
Michael Dukakis (D) 33%

1992:
Bill Clinton (D) 52%
George H. Bush (R) 30%
Ross Perot (I) 12%

1996:
Bill Clinton (D) 56%
Bob Dole (R) 25%
Ross Perot (Ref.) 12%

2000:
Al Gore (D) 46%
George W. Bush (R) 38%
Ralph Nader (G) or
Pat Buchanan (Ref.) 9%

2004:
John Kerry (D) 46%
George W. Bush (R) 40%
Ralph Nader (I) 7%

- Adults in the United States would vote differently in a rerun of the last two presidential elections, according to a poll by Scripps Howard News Service released by Ohio University. 46 per cent of respondents would support Democrat John Kerry in a repeat of the 2004 ballot, while 40 per cent would vote for Republican George W. Bush.

The survey asked Americans to ponder their options in every U.S. presidential election held since 1964. Democrat Al Gore would receive the support of 46 per cent of respondents in the 2000 rerun, while Bush would finish second with 38 per cent.

Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan remain extremely popular. The Democrat would receive 52 per cent and 56 per cent of the vote in the 1992 and 1996 races, while the Republican would win with 56 per cent and 64 per cent in the 1980 and 1984 presidential contests.

Democrat Jimmy Carter maintains a 17-point edge over Republican Gerald Ford in the 1976 race, while Republican George H. Bush keeps a 20-point lead over Democrat Michael Dukakis in the 1988 contest. Democrat Lyndon Johnson reaches 50 per cent in a rerun of the 1964 election.

Republican Richard Nixon barely defeats Democrat Hubert H. Humphrey in the 1968 race, and trails rival George McGovern in the 1972 contest.

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The next presidential election is scheduled for November 2008.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/12777
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Rob
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« Reply #1 on: December 20, 2006, 01:44:26 PM »

1972:
George McGovern (D) 42%
Richard Nixon (R) 39%

2000:
Al Gore (D) 46%
George W. Bush (R) 38%
Ralph Nader (G) or
Pat Buchanan (Ref.) 9%

2004:
John Kerry (D) 46%
George W. Bush (R) 40%
Ralph Nader (I) 7%

Smiley
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #2 on: December 20, 2006, 01:57:54 PM »

1964:
Lyndon B. Johnson (D) 50%
Barry Goldwater (R) 23%

1968:
Richard Nixon (R) 34%
Hubert H. Humphrey (D) 31%
George Wallace (I) 15%

1972:
George McGovern (D) 42%
Richard Nixon (R) 39%


1976:
Jimmy Carter (D) 52%
Gerald Ford (R) 35%

1980:
Ronald Reagan (R) 56%
Jimmy Carter (D) 30%
John Anderson (I) 6%

1984:
Ronald Reagan (R) 64%
Walter Mondale (D) 24%

1988:
George H. Bush (R) 53%
Michael Dukakis (D) 33%

1992:
Bill Clinton (D) 52%
George H. Bush (R) 30%
Ross Perot (I) 12%

1996:
Bill Clinton (D) 56%
Bob Dole (R) 25%
Ross Perot (Ref.) 12%

2000:
Al Gore (D) 46%
George W. Bush (R) 38%
Ralph Nader (G) or
Pat Buchanan (Ref.) 9%

2004:
John Kerry (D) 46%
George W. Bush (R) 40%
Ralph Nader (I) 7%


If Only.....
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #3 on: December 20, 2006, 01:59:37 PM »

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The next presidential election is scheduled for November 2008.
Really? I am shocked to learn all this!

In other news, what's up with the high Nader support?
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jfern
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« Reply #4 on: December 20, 2006, 02:09:41 PM »

1972:
George McGovern (D) 42%
Richard Nixon (R) 39%

2000:
Al Gore (D) 46%
George W. Bush (R) 38%
Ralph Nader (G) or
Pat Buchanan (Ref.) 9%

2004:
John Kerry (D) 46%
George W. Bush (R) 40%
Ralph Nader (I) 7%

Smiley

Yeah, Bush and Nixon screwed up pretty bad. If you look at the other races, there is generally a huge advantage given to the person who actually won.
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Boris
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« Reply #5 on: December 20, 2006, 02:40:54 PM »

1988:
George H. Bush (R) 53%
Michael Dukakis (D) 33%

Sad
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Gustaf
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« Reply #6 on: December 24, 2006, 06:43:41 AM »

It's amazing that they seem to have gotten people to think straight about this (i.e. pick Carter over Ford and then Reagan over Carter). What exactly did they ask?
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Frodo
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« Reply #7 on: December 24, 2006, 08:53:48 PM »


1972:
George McGovern (D) 42%
Richard Nixon (R) 39%

2000:
Al Gore (D) 46%
George W. Bush (R) 38%
Ralph Nader (G) or
Pat Buchanan (Ref.) 9%

With the Iraq War bearing a more disturbing resemblance to Vietnam with each passing week, results like these are only to be expected.  I would be curious to know what the results would have been like had a poll like this been conducted in either 2002 or 2003. 
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Alcon
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« Reply #8 on: December 25, 2006, 02:16:50 AM »

It's amazing that they seem to have gotten people to think straight about this (i.e. pick Carter over Ford and then Reagan over Carter). What exactly did they ask?

My thoughts exactly...
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Gabu
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« Reply #9 on: December 25, 2006, 03:52:01 AM »
« Edited: December 25, 2006, 04:14:49 AM by Gabu »

Just for interest's sake, I thought I'd see exactly what each election would look like if a nationwide swing occurred in each of these elections to realize the popular vote found in each result.  In cases where there are numerous undecideds, I'll scale up the D-R-I percentages such that they match the total percentage realized in the actual result (for example, if the actual result was 50-45 D-R, that makes the D-R votes 95% of the result, so a poll result of 35-40 D-R would get scaled up to 44.33-50.67 to match the 95% D-R portion of the total votes).  This is, of course, not likely how the undecideds would actually break, but it's the best I can get without introducing bias through guessing how they would break.

So, to begin...

1964:
Lyndon B. Johnson (D) 50%
Barry Goldwater (R) 23%

The poll result of 50-23 equates to an election result of 68.16-31.36, which induces a 7.11% swing away from Goldwater to Johnson from the 1964 results.



Lyndon B. Johnson (D-TX) - 68.16% PV - 513 EVs (+27)
Barry Goldwater (R-AZ) - 31.36% PV - 25 EVs (-27)

1968:
Richard Nixon (R) 34%
Hubert H. Humphrey (D) 31%
George Wallace (I) 15%

The poll result of 34-31-15 equates to an election result of 42.36-38.62-18.69, which induces a 1.06% swing away from Nixon and a 4.10% swing away from Humphrey, both forming a 5.16% swing to Wallace, from the 1968 results.



Richard Nixon (R-CA*) - 42.36% PV - 327 EVs (+26)
Hubert H. Humphrey (D-MN) - 38.62% PV - 147 EVs (-44)
George Wallace (Am. Ind.-AL) - 18.69% PV - 64 EVs (+18)

*Or arguably R-NY.  It makes little difference.

1972:
George McGovern (D) 42%
Richard Nixon (R) 39%

The poll result of 42-39 equates to an election result of 50.91-47.28, which induces a 13.39% swing away from Nixon to McGovern from the 1972 results.



George McGovern (D-SD) - 50.91% PV - 329 EVs (+311)
Richard Nixon (R-CA*) - 47.28% PV - 209 EVs (-311)

*Or arguably R-NY.  It makes little difference.

1976:
Jimmy Carter (D) 52%
Gerald Ford (R) 35%

The poll result of 52-35 equates to an election result of 58.63-39.46, which induces a 8.55% swing away from Ford to Carter from the 1976 results.



Jimmy Carter (D-GA) - 58.63% PV - 519 EVs (+222)
Gerald Ford (R-MI) - 39.46% PV - 19 EVs (-222)

1980:
Ronald Reagan (R) 56%
Jimmy Carter (D) 30%
John Anderson (I) 6%

The poll result of 56-30-6 equates to an election result of 59.88-32.08-6.42, which induces a 8.93% swing away from Carter and a 0.19% swing away from Anderson, both forming a 9.13% to Reagan from the 1980 results.



Ronald Reagan (R-CA) - 59.88% PV - 535 EVs (+46)
Jimmy Carter (D-GA) - 32.08% PV - 3 EVs (-46)
John Anderson (I-IL) - 6.42% PV - 0 EVs (+/- 0)

1984:
Ronald Reagan (R) 64%
Walter Mondale (D) 24%

The poll result of 64-24 equates to an election result of 72.24-27.09, which induces a 13.47% swing away from Mondale to Reagan from the 1984 results.



Ronald Reagan (R-CA) - 72.24% PV - 535 EVs (+10)
Walter Mondale (D-MN) - 27.09% PV - 3 EVs (-10)

----

This takes a long time and I really should be getting to bed; I'll do the remaining ones tomorrow if I have time. Tongue
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Verily
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« Reply #10 on: December 25, 2006, 11:52:57 PM »

Interesting how strongly that 1972 map coordinates with modern political geography. Only Montana, the Dakotas and New Hampshire have changed radically.
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Gabu
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« Reply #11 on: December 26, 2006, 03:00:11 AM »

Interesting how strongly that 1972 map coordinates with modern political geography. Only Montana, the Dakotas and New Hampshire have changed radically.

And Vermont.  If you look closely, it's only >40% D; it flipped only under the barest of margins.  I had to figure out both new percentages with a calculator to determine who would have been ahead.

EDIT: And Alaska, come to think of it.
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Gabu
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« Reply #12 on: December 27, 2006, 02:07:09 AM »

Carrying on, if only because it interests me... Tongue

1988:
George H. Bush (R) 53%
Michael Dukakis (D) 33%

The poll result of 53-33 equates to an election result of 61.02-38.00, which induces a 7.55% swing away from Dukakis to Bush from the 1988 results.



George H. W. Bush (R-TX) - 61.02% PV - 535 EVs (+108)
Michael Dukakis (D-MA) - 38.00% PV - 3 EVs (-108)

1992:
Bill Clinton (D) 52%
George H. Bush (R) 30%
Ross Perot (I) 12%

The poll result of 52-30-12 equates to an election result of 54.97-31.71-12.69, which induces a 5.74% swing away from Bush and a 6.22% swing away from Perot, both forming a 11.96% swing to Clinton from the 1992 results.



Bill Clinton (D-AR) - 54.97% PV - 532 EVs (+162)
George H. W. Bush (R-TX) - 31.71% PV - 6 EVs (-162)
Ross Perot (I-TX) - 12.69% PV - 0 EVs (+/- 0)

1996:
Bill Clinton (D) 56%
Bob Dole (R) 25%
Ross Perot (Ref.) 12%

The poll result of 56-25-12 equates to an election result of 59.22-26.44-12.69, which induces a 14.28% swing away from Dole, forming both a 9.99% swing to Clinton and a 4.29% to Perot from the 1996 results.



Bill Clinton (D-AR) - 59.22% PV - 537 EVs (+158)
Bob Dole (R-KS) - 26.44% PV - 1 EV (-158)
Ross Perot (I-TX) - 12.69% PV - 0 EVs (+/- 0)

2000:
Al Gore (D) 46%
George W. Bush (R) 38%
Ralph Nader (G) or
Pat Buchanan (Ref.) 9%

The poll result of 46-38-9 equates to an election result of 49.17-40.62-9.62, which induces a 7.25% swing away from Bush, forming both a 0.79% swing to Gore and a 6.46% swing to Nader & Buchanan from the 2000 results.



Al Gore (D-TN) - 49.17% PV - 384 EVs (+117)
George W. Bush (R-TX) - 40.62% PV - 154 EV (-117)
Ralph Nader & Pat Buchanan (G-DC & Ref.-VA) - 9.62% PV - 0 EVs (+/- 0)

Note: If you're curious which state was the new Florida here, that would be Virginia, which was won by Gore by 0.01%, 45.23-45.22.  Bush decided not to seek a recount, however.

2004:
John Kerry (D) 46%
George W. Bush (R) 40%
Ralph Nader (I) 7%

The poll result of 46-40-7 equates to an election result of 49.16-42.74-7.48, which induces a 7.99% swing away from Bush, forming both a 0.89% swing to Kerry and a 7.10% swing to Nader from the 2000 results.



John Kerry (D-MA) - 49.16% PV - 349 EVs (+97)
George W. Bush (R-TX) - 42.74% PV - 189 EV (-97)
Ralph Nader (Ref.-DC) - 7.48% PV - 0 EVs (+/- 0)

---

...and that's a wrap.

Well, I had fun, at least. Tongue
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #13 on: December 27, 2006, 02:37:19 AM »

Thanks Gabu Smiley
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Gabu
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« Reply #14 on: December 27, 2006, 07:24:29 AM »


My pleasure.

NE-3 certainly is, uh, Republican.  Bill Clinton wasn't even close to taking it in 1996.
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Adlai Stevenson
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« Reply #15 on: December 27, 2006, 12:08:07 PM »


That was interesting - especially the fact that the Republicans won every state in 1980, 1984 and 1988.  People certainly remember the Reagan era fondly. 
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #16 on: December 27, 2006, 08:56:34 PM »

More than anything else, these numbers show how the media (and so on) has tended to view the candidates in question after the event; all sugar or mostly poison.
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jfern
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« Reply #17 on: December 27, 2006, 09:03:45 PM »

1976:
Jimmy Carter (D) 52%
Gerald Ford (R) 35%

I wonder if anyone told Ford before he died.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #18 on: December 28, 2006, 06:01:09 PM »

Very good work Gabu. Smiley

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Verily
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« Reply #19 on: December 29, 2006, 06:46:21 PM »


That was interesting - especially the fact that the Republicans won every state in 1980, 1984 and 1988.  People certainly remember the Reagan era fondly. 

And the Clinton era. Not too surprising; both Presidents are viewed as successes.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #20 on: December 29, 2006, 07:00:06 PM »

Such is the power of the media I guess
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Gabu
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« Reply #21 on: December 29, 2006, 07:29:34 PM »

Such is the power of the goddamned biased liberal media I guess

I fixed your post for you... Tongue
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jimrtex
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« Reply #22 on: January 11, 2007, 02:10:59 PM »

1964:
Lyndon B. Johnson (D) 50%
Barry Goldwater (R) 23%
So they asked 25 year olds how they would have voted in a election held 17 years before they were born?

It would be amusing to know what would be the results if they asked if people actually voted, who they voted for, and what they think the important issues were at the time.
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Xahar
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« Reply #23 on: May 04, 2008, 02:00:34 AM »

Bump for cool maps.
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