TX-Gov: Quinnipiac: Abbott leads by five

[Unelectable Bystander]

All these polls we are seeing

Pa, NC, GA, etc

are nailing the final dem %

O'Rourke actually has the most upside here, as only 4% of white voters are undecided, but 11% of black voters are.

That is absolutely not true lol. If 11% of a 12% black electorate is undecided, that means about 1.3% of the entire population is black and undecided. If 4% of a 60% white electorate is undecided, that means about 2.4% of the entire population is white and undecided. Still more undecided white voters. Not to mention, this isn’t even helpful to begin with. If they were polarized by race, they wouldn’t currently be undecided.

But I’ll say more broadly that this poll doesn’t make any sense. It has every single republican elected official being significantly underwater. The state has shifted like 15 points left on abortion since their last poll. It talks about gun violence in its title. Yet despite the voters siding with democrats on apparently every issue, Abbott is still trusted more on everything (but his overall lead is smaller than his lead on the issues)

[Unelectable Bystander]

Even if we suppose that this poll is biased because of its sample, what this poll reveals is that Beto O'Rourke isn't a bad candidate. He has the favorables of Generic D or even someone better than that so there's no reason to think that he'd lose by 15 points right now.

O’Rourke is a walking punchline. They would have been better off nominating an Austin barista.

This poll suggests... otherwise? He even easily outdoes Abbott on "caring about the average Texan"

I know atlas and Twitter liberals don’t live in reality, but the delusion is most incredible when it comes to Texas. Are we just going to take the word of one poll instead of actual results where Abbott handily wins by double digits every time he runs? The same poll has Cruz and Cornyn and congressional republicans with significantly negative favorabilities. Why do they never lose if they’re so unpopular?

[Unelectable Bystander]

Even if we suppose that this poll is biased because of its sample, what this poll reveals is that Beto O'Rourke isn't a bad candidate. He has the favorables of Generic D or even someone better than that so there's no reason to think that he'd lose by 15 points right now.

O’Rourke is a walking punchline. They would have been better off nominating an Austin barista.

This poll suggests... otherwise? He even easily outdoes Abbott on "caring about the average Texan"

I know atlas and Twitter liberals don’t live in reality, but the delusion is most incredible when it comes to Texas. Are we just going to take the word of one poll instead of actual results where Abbott handily wins by double digits every time he runs? The same poll has Cruz and Cornyn and congressional republicans with significantly negative favorabilities. Why do they never lose if they’re so unpopular?

Well first of all, the poll doesn't say they're "so unpopular." They're a few % below even. And clearly partisanship wins out, just look at McConnell in KY as a more extreme example. The point is, TX is not KY and while it leans red still, Abbott and others are going to continue to be a little more vulnerable every time.

Beto lost by 3, Biden lost by 5. Abbott only won by double digits in 2018 bc Valdez was a meh candidate who had no funding and even in a wave year, wasn't really supported that much. Not to mention, Abbott has moved significantly to the right since even 2018.

It's funny how some people are jumping to believe an Abbott +19 poll as closer to reality and then when a poll lines up more with most of the GE results we've gotten since 2018, somehow Abbott +5 is so unbelievable.

Again those results were 11 points and 9 points to the right of the country and the Cornyn result was like 12.5 points to the right of the country. All of those would imply that a republican easily wins by double figures in any year where they win the popular vote.

McConnell can win by so much while being unpopular because the reputation of the Democratic Party in Kentucky is absolutely toxic and they hate any democrat more than they hate McConnell. It’s not possible for Republicans to win as often as they do in Texas while being generally unpopular  unless the approvals of democrats are consistently in the low to mid 30’s. So no I don’t buy it when right-leaning states have democrats with neutral favorabilities and republicans consistently negative. The fact that O’Rourkes personality traits are supposedly on par with Abbott is not rooted in reality

[Unelectable Bystander]

Even if we suppose that this poll is biased because of its sample, what this poll reveals is that Beto O'Rourke isn't a bad candidate. He has the favorables of Generic D or even someone better than that so there's no reason to think that he'd lose by 15 points right now.

O’Rourke is a walking punchline. They would have been better off nominating an Austin barista.

This poll suggests... otherwise? He even easily outdoes Abbott on "caring about the average Texan"

I know atlas and Twitter liberals don’t live in reality, but the delusion is most incredible when it comes to Texas. Are we just going to take the word of one poll instead of actual results where Abbott handily wins by double digits every time he runs? The same poll has Cruz and Cornyn and congressional republicans with significantly negative favorabilities. Why do they never lose if they’re so unpopular?

Well first of all, the poll doesn't say they're "so unpopular." They're a few % below even. And clearly partisanship wins out, just look at McConnell in KY as a more extreme example. The point is, TX is not KY and while it leans red still, Abbott and others are going to continue to be a little more vulnerable every time.

Beto lost by 3, Biden lost by 5. Abbott only won by double digits in 2018 bc Valdez was a meh candidate who had no funding and even in a wave year, wasn't really supported that much. Not to mention, Abbott has moved significantly to the right since even 2018.

It's funny how some people are jumping to believe an Abbott +19 poll as closer to reality and then when a poll lines up more with most of the GE results we've gotten since 2018, somehow Abbott +5 is so unbelievable.

Again those results were 11 points and 9 points to the right of the country and the Cornyn result was like 12.5 points to the right of the country. All of those would imply that a republican easily wins by double figures in any year where they win the popular vote.

McConnell can win by so much while being unpopular because the reputation of the Democratic Party in Kentucky is absolutely toxic and they hate any democrat more than they hate McConnell. It’s not possible for Republicans to win as often as they do in Texas while being generally unpopular  unless the approvals of democrats are consistently in the low to mid 30’s. So no I don’t buy it when right-leaning states have democrats with neutral favorabilities and republicans consistently negative. The fact that O’Rourkes personality traits are supposedly on par with Abbott is not rooted in reality

Well we have your own personal opinions and an actual poll from data. Q-Pac is dubious at best these days, so it's not the final word, but I'll usually take data over someones opinion.

That’s fine, I think this data is flawed and I think a lot of people know this but are choosing to overlook it because they like the result. Anyway, I’ll go out on a limb. I’m calling it for Abbott and calling it by at least high single digits. I’m giving him a 90% chance of winning by double digits and a 40-50% chance of winning by 15+. Somebody bump this if it turns out to be right or wrong