TX-Gov: Quinnipiac: Abbott leads by five
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  TX-Gov: Quinnipiac: Abbott leads by five
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Author Topic: TX-Gov: Quinnipiac: Abbott leads by five  (Read 1236 times)
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realisticidealist
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« on: June 15, 2022, 02:35:57 PM »

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3849

Abbott 48
O'Rourke 43
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President Johnson
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« Reply #1 on: June 15, 2022, 02:51:49 PM »

Quinnipiac is either very Democratic or Republican friendly. Just makes little sense. I guess they should just quit polling.

Now, 3, 2, 1,... OC post incoming how this is very competitive now and upsets can happen. Rs can't feel safe in Sunbelt Stack anymore...
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Xing
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« Reply #2 on: June 15, 2022, 03:30:23 PM »

I'd say the average of this poll and the Abbott +19 poll is probably close to the actual result.
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Matty
boshembechle
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« Reply #3 on: June 15, 2022, 03:36:25 PM »

All these polls we are seeing

Pa, NC, GA, etc

are nailing the final dem %
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Person Man
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« Reply #4 on: June 15, 2022, 03:37:28 PM »

All these polls we are seeing

Pa, NC, GA, etc

are nailing the final dem %

So you expect for 90%+ of undecideds going R? That would be difficult but not impossible I guess.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #5 on: June 15, 2022, 04:03:48 PM »
« Edited: June 15, 2022, 04:11:47 PM by wbrocks67 »

This seems more realistic. Beto doesn't have as much strength as his 2018 campaign, but people here seriously overrate Abbott's candidate strength as well. I don't imagine Independents/suburbs are happy with his veer far-right.

Also, again, Abbott isn't particularly popular. He's lucky this is a lean R state.

"Voters give Governor Greg Abbott a mixed job approval rating, with 46 percent approving and 48 percent disapproving. On Abbott's handling of gun violence, voters give him a negative 38 - 55 percent approval rating."
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #6 on: June 15, 2022, 04:12:44 PM »

All these polls we are seeing

Pa, NC, GA, etc

are nailing the final dem %

O'Rourke actually has the most upside here, as only 4% of white voters are undecided, but 11% of black voters are.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #7 on: June 15, 2022, 04:13:25 PM »

Ha Beto can win after all👍👍👍👍😊😊😊
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Matty
boshembechle
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« Reply #8 on: June 15, 2022, 04:30:54 PM »

This seems more realistic. Beto doesn't have as much strength as his 2018 campaign, but people here seriously overrate Abbott's candidate strength as well. I don't imagine Independents/suburbs are happy with his veer far-right.

Also, again, Abbott isn't particularly popular. He's lucky this is a lean R state.

"Voters give Governor Greg Abbott a mixed job approval rating, with 46 percent approving and 48 percent disapproving. On Abbott's handling of gun violence, voters give him a negative 38 - 55 percent approval rating."

I’m not trying to be rude but I don’t think you grasp how bad the environment is for dems

Texas will be called at poll closing
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Unelectable Bystander
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« Reply #9 on: June 15, 2022, 05:12:00 PM »

All these polls we are seeing

Pa, NC, GA, etc

are nailing the final dem %

O'Rourke actually has the most upside here, as only 4% of white voters are undecided, but 11% of black voters are.

That is absolutely not true lol. If 11% of a 12% black electorate is undecided, that means about 1.3% of the entire population is black and undecided. If 4% of a 60% white electorate is undecided, that means about 2.4% of the entire population is white and undecided. Still more undecided white voters. Not to mention, this isn’t even helpful to begin with. If they were polarized by race, they wouldn’t currently be undecided.

But I’ll say more broadly that this poll doesn’t make any sense. It has every single republican elected official being significantly underwater. The state has shifted like 15 points left on abortion since their last poll. It talks about gun violence in its title. Yet despite the voters siding with democrats on apparently every issue, Abbott is still trusted more on everything (but his overall lead is smaller than his lead on the issues)
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #10 on: June 15, 2022, 05:13:31 PM »

TX won't be called at poll closing it's VBM and they already said Steve Konraki said it's gonna be the same as 2020, that it may take hrs or days to count VBM, the Red Mirage as the insurrection commission, no the TX Gov race won't be called the reason why we are seeing quick counts these are primary polls not GE which will be closer
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sg0508
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« Reply #11 on: June 15, 2022, 10:11:54 PM »

I don't think TX, even in a "red" year is an instant poll close call any longer. The state has changed and Abbott has always been "luke warm" there. I'm thinking the final result is somewhere around where it was back in 2020, 54-42%, maybe a bit closer.  I don't know that it will be "interesting", but it won't be a win going away.
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« Reply #12 on: June 15, 2022, 10:20:50 PM »

I don't think TX, even in a "red" year is an instant poll close call any longer. The state has changed and Abbott has always been "luke warm" there. I'm thinking the final result is somewhere around where it was back in 2020, 54-42%, maybe a bit closer.  I don't know that it will be "interesting", but it won't be a win going away.

Another factor is that they're much, much more cautious about calling races at poll closing time than they used to be.
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« Reply #13 on: June 15, 2022, 10:22:28 PM »

I don't think TX, even in a "red" year is an instant poll close call any longer. The state has changed and Abbott has always been "luke warm" there. I'm thinking the final result is somewhere around where it was back in 2020, 54-42%, maybe a bit closer.  I don't know that it will be "interesting", but it won't be a win going away.

If it’s 54-42 it will be called at poll closing time as much of the vote will have already been counted by poll closing time
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #14 on: June 15, 2022, 11:25:09 PM »

I don't think TX, even in a "red" year is an instant poll close call any longer. The state has changed and Abbott has always been "luke warm" there. I'm thinking the final result is somewhere around where it was back in 2020, 54-42%, maybe a bit closer.  I don't know that it will be "interesting", but it won't be a win going away.

If it’s 54-42 it will be called at poll closing time as much of the vote will have already been counted by poll closing time

Lol Steve Konraki already said if it's close in VBM it can be hrs or days to finish counting ballots didn't you Rs learn your lesson last time when Trump thought he won MI, WI and PA and it took awhile to count votes
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #15 on: June 15, 2022, 11:30:09 PM »

Even if we suppose that this poll is biased because of its sample, what this poll reveals is that Beto O'Rourke isn't a bad candidate. He has the favorables of Generic D or even someone better than that so there's no reason to think that he'd lose by 15 points right now.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #16 on: June 16, 2022, 08:17:01 AM »

Even if we suppose that this poll is biased because of its sample, what this poll reveals is that Beto O'Rourke isn't a bad candidate. He has the favorables of Generic D or even someone better than that so there's no reason to think that he'd lose by 15 points right now.

Also, I was told Beto's comments about guns and his remarks at the event with Abbott were going to sink him with the entire state in the guns issue, and the two are nearly tied among handling of guns...
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #17 on: June 16, 2022, 09:04:39 AM »

Beto is doing about the same as Hegar, HEGAR lost by 5 pts and Crist is tied with DeSantis these are upset picks only but don't underestimate the Blk and Brown vote either

It's VBM not same day and just like the polls they're unpredictable

Let's all remember that Crist and Beto are supposed to be blown out by 9/12 pts that overperformed
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #18 on: June 16, 2022, 09:06:17 AM »

Q continues to dump garbage polls?

Safe R. Might be correct about the 43% though.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #19 on: June 16, 2022, 09:07:32 AM »

Q continues to dump garbage polls?

Safe R. Might be correct about the 43% though.

HEGAR lost by 5 pts in 2020 so Beto is doing the same as Hegar it's not garbage when you disagree with them it's garbage with 33% Approvals

Trump didn't win by 9/12 in FL and TX he only won TX by 5 and FL by 3 but DeSantis isn't winning by 9/12 definitely it's gonna be within 3
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #20 on: June 16, 2022, 09:10:33 AM »

Q continues to dump garbage polls?

Safe R. Might be correct about the 43% though.

HEGAR lost by 5 pts in 2020 so Beto is doing the same as Hegar it's not garbage when you disagree with them it's garbage with 33% Approvals

Trump didn't win by 9/12 in FL and TX he only won TX by 5 and FL by 3 but DeSantis isn't winning by 9/12 definitely it's gonna be within 3

She lost by 9.6 pts; 53.5-43.9: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Texas

2022 also won't be as D-friendly as 2020.
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Senator Incitatus
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« Reply #21 on: June 16, 2022, 09:17:04 AM »

Even if we suppose that this poll is biased because of its sample, what this poll reveals is that Beto O'Rourke isn't a bad candidate. He has the favorables of Generic D or even someone better than that so there's no reason to think that he'd lose by 15 points right now.

O’Rourke is a walking punchline. They would have been better off nominating an Austin barista.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #22 on: June 16, 2022, 09:22:03 AM »
« Edited: June 16, 2022, 09:26:44 AM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

Q continues to dump garbage polls?

Safe R. Might be correct about the 43% though.

HEGAR lost by 5 pts in 2020 so Beto is doing the same as Hegar it's not garbage when you disagree with them it's garbage with 33% Approvals

Trump didn't win by 9/12 in FL and TX he only won TX by 5 and FL by 3 but DeSantis isn't winning by 9/12 definitely it's gonna be within 3

She lost by 9.6 pts; 53.5-43.9: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Texas

2022 also won't be as D-friendly as 2020.
q

In 2018 we didn't win 80M and we won OH, WVA, Sen every election is different all the polls are showing Biden at 39% but Approvals can lie , Pelosi said that on MSNBC that Approvals lie otherwise Trump at 44% wouldnt have netted S seats in 2018 and H seats in 2020, he altimately ost but he said himself he was closer than polls predicted that he was more like at 47/48 than 40, Biden is closer to 50 than 40, You Gov have Biden close to 50 than any other Pollster especially Rassy and Emerson

It's a 303 map but I can make my map anyway I want just like Rs make R nut maps that ain't happen

Biden lost TX by six not HEGAR
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #23 on: June 16, 2022, 09:41:07 AM »

Even if we suppose that this poll is biased because of its sample, what this poll reveals is that Beto O'Rourke isn't a bad candidate. He has the favorables of Generic D or even someone better than that so there's no reason to think that he'd lose by 15 points right now.

O’Rourke is a walking punchline. They would have been better off nominating an Austin barista.

This poll suggests... otherwise? He even easily outdoes Abbott on "caring about the average Texan"
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #24 on: June 16, 2022, 09:48:38 AM »

Quinnipiac has a history of publishing either wildly Republican-friendly or wildly Democratic-friendly outliers. Not surprising that they would find a 'surprise' result like this.
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