TX-Gov: Quinnipiac: Abbott leads by five

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Quinnipiac has a history of publishing either wildly Republican-friendly or wildly Democratic-friendly outliers. Not surprising that they would find a 'surprise' result like this.

Lol Biden lost FL by only 3 that's why Crist is tied with DeSantis and may have a small lead 51/49 and Biden lost TX bye six it's not far off from 2020

[Unelectable Bystander]

Even if we suppose that this poll is biased because of its sample, what this poll reveals is that Beto O'Rourke isn't a bad candidate. He has the favorables of Generic D or even someone better than that so there's no reason to think that he'd lose by 15 points right now.

O’Rourke is a walking punchline. They would have been better off nominating an Austin barista.

This poll suggests... otherwise? He even easily outdoes Abbott on "caring about the average Texan"

I know atlas and Twitter liberals don’t live in reality, but the delusion is most incredible when it comes to Texas. Are we just going to take the word of one poll instead of actual results where Abbott handily wins by double digits every time he runs? The same poll has Cruz and Cornyn and congressional republicans with significantly negative favorabilities. Why do they never lose if they’re so unpopular?

[wbrocks67]

Even if we suppose that this poll is biased because of its sample, what this poll reveals is that Beto O'Rourke isn't a bad candidate. He has the favorables of Generic D or even someone better than that so there's no reason to think that he'd lose by 15 points right now.

O’Rourke is a walking punchline. They would have been better off nominating an Austin barista.

This poll suggests... otherwise? He even easily outdoes Abbott on "caring about the average Texan"

I know atlas and Twitter liberals don’t live in reality, but the delusion is most incredible when it comes to Texas. Are we just going to take the word of one poll instead of actual results where Abbott handily wins by double digits every time he runs? The same poll has Cruz and Cornyn and congressional republicans with significantly negative favorabilities. Why do they never lose if they’re so unpopular?

Well first of all, the poll doesn't say they're "so unpopular." They're a few % below even. And clearly partisanship wins out, just look at McConnell in KY as a more extreme example. The point is, TX is not KY and while it leans red still, Abbott and others are going to continue to be a little more vulnerable every time.

Beto lost by 3, Biden lost by 5. Abbott only won by double digits in 2018 bc Valdez was a meh candidate who had no funding and even in a wave year, wasn't really supported that much. Not to mention, Abbott has moved significantly to the right since even 2018.

It's funny how some people are jumping to believe an Abbott +19 poll as closer to reality and then when a poll lines up more with most of the GE results we've gotten since 2018, somehow Abbott +5 is so unbelievable.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Even if we suppose that this poll is biased because of its sample, what this poll reveals is that Beto O'Rourke isn't a bad candidate. He has the favorables of Generic D or even someone better than that so there's no reason to think that he'd lose by 15 points right now.

O’Rourke is a walking punchline. They would have been better off nominating an Austin barista.

This poll suggests... otherwise? He even easily outdoes Abbott on "caring about the average Texan"

I know atlas and Twitter liberals don’t live in reality, but the delusion is most incredible when it comes to Texas. Are we just going to take the word of one poll instead of actual results where Abbott handily wins by double digits every time he runs? The same poll has Cruz and Cornyn and congressional republicans with significantly negative favorabilities. Why do they never lose if they’re so unpopular?

Well first of all, the poll doesn't say they're "so unpopular." They're a few % below even. And clearly partisanship wins out, just look at McConnell in KY as a more extreme example. The point is, TX is not KY and while it leans red still, Abbott and others are going to continue to be a little more vulnerable every time.

Beto lost by 3, Biden lost by 5. Abbott only won by double digits in 2018 bc Valdez was a meh candidate who had no funding and even in a wave year, wasn't really supported that much. Not to mention, Abbott has moved significantly to the right since even 2018.

It's funny how some people are jumping to believe an Abbott +19 poll as closer to reality and then when a poll lines up more with most of the GE results we've gotten since 2018, somehow Abbott +5 is so unbelievable.

Again those results were 11 points and 9 points to the right of the country and the Cornyn result was like 12.5 points to the right of the country. All of those would imply that a republican easily wins by double figures in any year where they win the popular vote.

McConnell can win by so much while being unpopular because the reputation of the Democratic Party in Kentucky is absolutely toxic and they hate any democrat more than they hate McConnell. It’s not possible for Republicans to win as often as they do in Texas while being generally unpopular  unless the approvals of democrats are consistently in the low to mid 30’s. So no I don’t buy it when right-leaning states have democrats with neutral favorabilities and republicans consistently negative. The fact that O’Rourkes personality traits are supposedly on par with Abbott is not rooted in reality

[wbrocks67]

Even if we suppose that this poll is biased because of its sample, what this poll reveals is that Beto O'Rourke isn't a bad candidate. He has the favorables of Generic D or even someone better than that so there's no reason to think that he'd lose by 15 points right now.

O’Rourke is a walking punchline. They would have been better off nominating an Austin barista.

This poll suggests... otherwise? He even easily outdoes Abbott on "caring about the average Texan"

I know atlas and Twitter liberals don’t live in reality, but the delusion is most incredible when it comes to Texas. Are we just going to take the word of one poll instead of actual results where Abbott handily wins by double digits every time he runs? The same poll has Cruz and Cornyn and congressional republicans with significantly negative favorabilities. Why do they never lose if they’re so unpopular?

Well first of all, the poll doesn't say they're "so unpopular." They're a few % below even. And clearly partisanship wins out, just look at McConnell in KY as a more extreme example. The point is, TX is not KY and while it leans red still, Abbott and others are going to continue to be a little more vulnerable every time.

Beto lost by 3, Biden lost by 5. Abbott only won by double digits in 2018 bc Valdez was a meh candidate who had no funding and even in a wave year, wasn't really supported that much. Not to mention, Abbott has moved significantly to the right since even 2018.

It's funny how some people are jumping to believe an Abbott +19 poll as closer to reality and then when a poll lines up more with most of the GE results we've gotten since 2018, somehow Abbott +5 is so unbelievable.

Again those results were 11 points and 9 points to the right of the country and the Cornyn result was like 12.5 points to the right of the country. All of those would imply that a republican easily wins by double figures in any year where they win the popular vote.

McConnell can win by so much while being unpopular because the reputation of the Democratic Party in Kentucky is absolutely toxic and they hate any democrat more than they hate McConnell. It’s not possible for Republicans to win as often as they do in Texas while being generally unpopular  unless the approvals of democrats are consistently in the low to mid 30’s. So no I don’t buy it when right-leaning states have democrats with neutral favorabilities and republicans consistently negative. The fact that O’Rourkes personality traits are supposedly on par with Abbott is not rooted in reality

Well we have your own personal opinions and an actual poll from data. Q-Pac is dubious at best these days, so it's not the final word, but I'll usually take data over someones opinion.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto is gonna win we didn't win 80M votes in 2018 and we won OH and WVA Sen and Hogan and SUNUNU won, 8 pt GCB in 2018 don't matter because we're not gonna win 41H seats so Rs keep comparing an 8 pt margin and proof we can't win red states is just not true and in 2012 we won by 4 and won OH, FL, MT, WVA and MO Senate races

It's hypocritical that Rs can win blue states but we can't win red states, Biden was on the ballot in 2008/12 and we won IN and NC

[Unelectable Bystander]

Even if we suppose that this poll is biased because of its sample, what this poll reveals is that Beto O'Rourke isn't a bad candidate. He has the favorables of Generic D or even someone better than that so there's no reason to think that he'd lose by 15 points right now.

O’Rourke is a walking punchline. They would have been better off nominating an Austin barista.

This poll suggests... otherwise? He even easily outdoes Abbott on "caring about the average Texan"

I know atlas and Twitter liberals don’t live in reality, but the delusion is most incredible when it comes to Texas. Are we just going to take the word of one poll instead of actual results where Abbott handily wins by double digits every time he runs? The same poll has Cruz and Cornyn and congressional republicans with significantly negative favorabilities. Why do they never lose if they’re so unpopular?

Well first of all, the poll doesn't say they're "so unpopular." They're a few % below even. And clearly partisanship wins out, just look at McConnell in KY as a more extreme example. The point is, TX is not KY and while it leans red still, Abbott and others are going to continue to be a little more vulnerable every time.

Beto lost by 3, Biden lost by 5. Abbott only won by double digits in 2018 bc Valdez was a meh candidate who had no funding and even in a wave year, wasn't really supported that much. Not to mention, Abbott has moved significantly to the right since even 2018.

It's funny how some people are jumping to believe an Abbott +19 poll as closer to reality and then when a poll lines up more with most of the GE results we've gotten since 2018, somehow Abbott +5 is so unbelievable.

Again those results were 11 points and 9 points to the right of the country and the Cornyn result was like 12.5 points to the right of the country. All of those would imply that a republican easily wins by double figures in any year where they win the popular vote.

McConnell can win by so much while being unpopular because the reputation of the Democratic Party in Kentucky is absolutely toxic and they hate any democrat more than they hate McConnell. It’s not possible for Republicans to win as often as they do in Texas while being generally unpopular  unless the approvals of democrats are consistently in the low to mid 30’s. So no I don’t buy it when right-leaning states have democrats with neutral favorabilities and republicans consistently negative. The fact that O’Rourkes personality traits are supposedly on par with Abbott is not rooted in reality

Well we have your own personal opinions and an actual poll from data. Q-Pac is dubious at best these days, so it's not the final word, but I'll usually take data over someones opinion.

That’s fine, I think this data is flawed and I think a lot of people know this but are choosing to overlook it because they like the result. Anyway, I’ll go out on a limb. I’m calling it for Abbott and calling it by at least high single digits. I’m giving him a 90% chance of winning by double digits and a 40-50% chance of winning by 15+. Somebody bump this if it turns out to be right or wrong

[GALeftist]

Abbott will win, of course, but I feel like we are forgetting that Beto lost a statewide Senate race in Texas by 2.6 points in a D+8 year, which is a pretty good performance considering that Biden would lose by 5.6 points in a D+4 year and the state is trending left. Now, you might say that some of this was Cruz being Cruz, and, while that is obviously true, it nevertheless demonstrates some amount of strength as a candidate, especially if you're taking Abbott's results from 2014 (when he won a Romney+16 state by 20 in an environment 9 points redder – relatively weak, to be honest) and 2018 (when the Democratic campaign was a complete joke; if you're telling me Cruz was weak, you have got to admit that was infinitely more true of Valdez) to demonstrate his electoral strength.

inb4 "Beto was a good candidate but he went woke" – you really need to log off. Beto ran as basically a standard issue liberal in 2018.

Anyway, I'm predicting an environment about 7 points redder than 2020, so I'm predicting a result of about Abbott+12.5 or so. Maybe as low as Abbott+10 if I'm feeling generous since the state is trending left.