TX-23 runoff predictions thread

[Tender Branson]

My prediction:

Bonilla: 51%
Rodriguez: 49%

[Keystone Phil]

As I said in another thread, Bonilla by eight.

[Adlai Stevenson]

My prediction:

TX-23
Bonilla (R) 55%
Rodriguez (D) 45%

I'm being overly cautious after predicting Carter beating Jefferson 55%-45% in LA-2.  So I will be conservative, turnout will be abysmal so perhaps Bonilla's vote will be inflated a little? 

[minionofmidas]

Since my prediction's been taken already, I'll go with Bonilla 51.5 Ciro 48.5

[Sam Spade]

My prediction:

TX-23
Bonilla (R) 55%
Rodriguez (D) 45%

I'm being overly cautious after predicting Carter beating Jefferson 55%-45% in LA-2.  So I will be conservative, turnout will be abysmal so perhaps Bonilla's vote will be inflated a little? 

As I pointed out about this CD earlier (since it was my adopted House seat), what makes it unlike other Texas CD is not only that the Hispanic population is rather stagnant, possibly declining (though I don't have serious numbers on that), but also that low turnout will probably help the Democrat in the case, not hurt him.

South Side Bexar (Ciro's home base) is historically a low-turnout area, regardless of the election presented.  Northwest Anglo Bexar (Bonilla's base), while in general a higher turnout area than South Bexar, has historically shown much greater variation in turnout between Presidential, mid-term and local/runoff/primary elections over the years (I've scanned the precincts myself).

Therefore, this should be the one type of election where Ciro can do what Democrats should be able to do what their gameplan is for the CD: achieve a 50-50 split in Bexar county.  Unfortunately for Dems, Ciro is just not the type of candidate who should win in the border counties and they will probably make up about 1/4 to 1/3 of the vote.  That's the reason why in an election like this, I'm still saying Ciro has to be ahead by 500 vote minimum in Bexar County to have any shot and it'll probably have to be around 1000+ votes to be realistic.

Anyway, so Bonilla 52%, Ciro 48%, as I said before.  Ciro could win though, but it would be a squeaker, probably.

[Sam Spade]

About the only article I can find so far.  This site should be a good site to pick up numbers later on.

http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/metro/stories/MYSA121206.voter23race.en.1afdcdb.html

Voting slow in district 23rd race

Guillermo X. Garcia and Tracey Idell Hamilton
Express-News Staff Writers

Voting was slow but steady during the morning as voters from the far Northwest and the South Side did their part to decide who will represent them in the U.S. 23rd Congressional District.

Incumbent Republican Henry Bonilla is attempting to beat back a challenge from Democrat Ciro Rodriguez.

"It's been a steady turnout, but nothing like the hundreds who were standing in line waiting to vote" in the Nov. 7 general election said William "Skip" Merton, an election judge at fire station #43, 2055 W. Bitters, on the Northwest Side.

He said 122 people had cast ballots in two precincts, far below the thousands who voted there Nov. 7.

Outside the fire station, more than a dozen Bonilla for Congress signs lined the street. Bonilla is counting on a strong turnout in that part of town to help him win his eighth term in Congress.

Some 112 people had voted at Huebner Elementary School, 16311 Huebner Rd. "It's been pretty quiet, so far," said election judge Rickey Horne.

On the other end of town, Rodriguez' campaign workers were hard at work.

At Adams Elementary School, 135 E. Southcross, on the South Side, volunteers for Rodriguez turned toward the sound of an amplified voice in the distance.

It was a man, standing in the back of a bright red truck, bullhorn in hand, entreating potential voters to vote for Rodriguez.

"We're going to be all over the Southside," said Henry Rodriguez, no relation to the candidate.

Henry Rodriguez wouldn't be venturing into the Bonilla-friendly Northside, he said. "They'd put me in jail!" he joked.

"This is the grassroots part," Rodriguez said. "Our people need to be excited."

But by 9:30 a.m., few had come out to vote yet: 43 at Adams, 32 at Riverside Park Elementary -- where there are only Ciro Rodriguez signs - 14 had voted at Gilbert Elementary, and 18 others had cast ballots at St. Leo's Catholic Church.

[okstate]

Probably Bonilla by a point or so... 50.5-49.5

[Eraserhead]

Bonilla:52%
Rodriguez:48%

[jimrtex]

Bonilla 53
Rodriguez 47

[© tweed]

Bonilla 55 Rodriguez 45

[DownWithTheLeft]

Mark my words:

Rodriguez will win this race something like 53-47

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Mark my words:

Rodriguez will win this race something like 53-47

Ironically, you might be too biased in favor of Bonilla.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Mark my words:

Rodriguez will win this race something like 53-47

Ironically, you might be too biased in favor of Bonilla.

Even when I pick the Democrat I favor the Republican, anyway miles closer than anyone's prediction (At least if it holds up)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I don't know which is scarier, the fact that DWTL made an accurate prediction or that he predicted more Democratic than anyone else.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I don't know which is scarier, the fact that DWTL made an accurate prediction or that he predicted more Democratic than anyone else.

1.) Consider 99.9% of my predictions are made based solely to be different on the off chance my gut is right, that is weird

2.) Well the more Dem was b/c everyone was saying Republican and I really thought the SUSA poll was frieghtning

From here on out I am no longer going to worry about party labels

[Democratic Hawk]

From here on out I am no longer going to worry about party labels

At all?

Yes, you can certainly take the 'go to the top of the class and fall off' acolade because when the remaining Bexar and Medina precincts come in Rodriguez 53/47 should be about spot on

Dave

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

From here on out I am no longer going to worry about party labels

At all?

Yes, you can certainly take the 'go to the top of the class and fall off' acolade because when the remaining Bexar and Medina precincts come in Rodriguez 53/47 should be about spot on

Dave

54/46 is more likely. The question is, which will be better for Ciro, the 53.95-46.05 split in the early voting, or the later voting?

[Democratic Hawk]

From here on out I am no longer going to worry about party labels

At all?

Yes, you can certainly take the 'go to the top of the class and fall off' acolade because when the remaining Bexar and Medina precincts come in Rodriguez 53/47 should be about spot on

Dave

54/46 is more likely. The question is, which will be better for Ciro, the 53.95-46.05 split in the early voting, or the later voting?

Aye, come to think of it. Unlikely that Bonilla will gain an extra 1.54% of the vote from 5 precincts

Dave

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

From here on out I am no longer going to worry about party labels

At all?

Yes, you can certainly take the 'go to the top of the class and fall off' acolade because when the remaining Bexar and Medina precincts come in Rodriguez 53/47 should be about spot on

Dave

54/46 is more likely. The question is, which will be better for Ciro, the 53.95-46.05 split in the early voting, or the later voting?

Aye, come to think of it. Unlikely that Bonilla will gain an extra 1.54% of the vote from 5 precincts

Dave

In fact, it could end up rounding to 55/45.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Score one for me