gordon smith vs. barack obama.

[Rob]

That has quite a ring to it!

I try.

Way to make it seem like Obama... scored some real electoral accomplishment.

I never thought I would see the day a liberal black Democrat from Chicago would get 64 percent in the Goldwater stronghold of DuPage County. That's quite a feat, even against a joke candidate.

Obama will be in the big leagues now so I suggest that you quit being so arrogant.

Hey, at least I've got good reason to be arrogant. Obama-mania is sweeping the country.

Wait until he gets owned in the primaries or roughed up in the General.

No longer so certain that Hillary will thrash him in the primaries?

He is exciting. We do need more charisma in these campaigns.

Agreed. At the very least, win or lose, I hope Obama gets more people interested in the process.

[Keystone Phil]

No longer so certain that Hillary will thrash him in the primaries?

Oh, she'll beat him but part of me holds out hope that he wins so the GOP can be the ones that bring the rising star back down to Earth. 

May I remind all of those so sure of an Obama win in the primaries that Howard Dean was seen as your "once in a lifetime," real deal candidate this time three years ago.

[skybridge]

Damn... Smith lost his own state. That is weak.

Do you think Gore is a strong candidate?

No.

Do you think Giuliani is a strong candidate?

oh dont waste your tme, phil.

these democrats are blinded by their obama-lust.

weve been through this before with johnny edwards.  then it was mark warner....now it is the giant that defeated alan keyes.

like all crushes, itll wear off once they look at things rationally.

Yeah, but what was phony with Edwards is more than real with Obama. The guy would be charismatic as hell even if he weren't a politician. Comparing him to Warner isn't even a fair fight in that respect.

Of course that can all change, but IF he keeps up this kind of publicity, there's little reason to find president Obama in '08 unrealistic.

[Gabu]

I seem to distinctly recall something along these lines happening with no one taking George W. Bush's original candidacy seriously at the beginning.

[Iosif]

Phil in fine form here once again.

[memphis]

Phil in fine form here once again.

Walter as well.

[Keystone Phil]

Phil in fine form here once again.

Walter as well.

It takes mighty big men to bump bad predictions with hindsight! I am so very flattered that I am hated by two of the biggest douchebags here. Really, it's an honor.

[Aizen]

keystone phil why is that guy groping a goat in your sig?

[RIP Robert H Bork]

I would definitely vote for Smith.

[NOVA Green]

Phil in fine form here once again.

Walter as well.

It takes mighty big men to bump bad predictions with hindsight! I am so very flattered that I am hated by two of the biggest douchebags here. Really, it's an honor.

Yeah, but Rob isn't a douche and he totally dominated you on this thread....

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Rob probably has one of the best election prediction track records on the site.

[Keystone Phil]

Phil in fine form here once again.

Walter as well.

It takes mighty big men to bump bad predictions with hindsight! I am so very flattered that I am hated by two of the biggest douchebags here. Really, it's an honor.

Yeah, but Rob isn't a douche and he totally dominated you on this thread....

Ok, great. He's an ok guy but he could be a douche at times. I expected better from you, of all people, than to hear the "OMG you got bitched up, son."

[Iosif]

You make me laugh Phil.

[CCA]

Well, um, you kinda did.

[NOVA Green]

Phil in fine form here once again.

Walter as well.

It takes mighty big men to bump bad predictions with hindsight! I am so very flattered that I am hated by two of the biggest douchebags here. Really, it's an honor.

Yeah, but Rob isn't a douche and he totally dominated you on this thread....

Ok, great. He's an ok guy but he could be a douche at times. I expected better from you, of all people, than to hear the "OMG you got bitched up, son."

Well, the thing about these "predict XYZ two years out" kind of threads is that sometimes people will make good predictions, and sometimes predictions will fall flat.

I don't think there is anything wrong with giving credit to a poster for making the right call, rather than resorting to names. Granted I probably didn't use the best phrasing to make my point, but it certainly wasn't intended as a "lets bash Phil" type of comment.

The nature of prediction threads is that generally these things will get bumped after a certain period of time for all to see. Cop to an incorrect call, congratulate the correct predictor, and move on to debate another item with no hard feelings.

[Matt Damon™]

So let's have Smith(a more centrist-leaning republican not tarred with McCain/Romney's flipflopping) run against Obama. Using inexperience/the radical accusation he cruises easily to victory.

[Lief 🗽]

So let's have Smith(a more centrist-leaning republican not tarred with McCain/Romney's flipflopping) run against Obama. Using inexperience/the radical accusation he cruises easily to victory.

lol

He couldn't even win re-election.

[NOVA Green]

So let's have Smith(a more centrist-leaning republican not tarred with McCain/Romney's flipflopping) run against Obama. Using inexperience/the radical accusation he cruises easily to victory.

lol

He couldn't even win re-election.

This was despite running as an anti-war candidate who supports environmental issues, and is moderate on gay rights. Granted McCain ran a fairly inept campaign in some regards, but this map still doesn't totally make sense.

[Lunar]

Obama overperformed Merkley....

[Keystone Phil]

Cop to an incorrect call, congratulate the correct predictor, and move on to debate another item with no hard feelings.

I've done so several times. I don't need a lecture about congratulating the correct predictors/winners (not saying that you're trying to do that though). What does it lead to? More immature people bumping old threads in a malicious fashion and making it into a bash session.

[Keystone Phil]

You make me laugh Phil.

Explain your hard on for me. I'm being serious, too. You want to constantly get on my case? Hey, at this point, more power to you, pal. I just want to know what it is about me that draws you in. And make it something good, too. I don't want some lame "You're easy to target!" nonsense. I'm sure you have something better in your arsenal. Ouch. Inappropriate word usage? You know, considering your explosive background?

[memphis]

You make me laugh Phil.

Explain your hard on for me. I'm being serious, too. You want to constantly get on my case? Hey, at this point, more power to you, pal. I just want to know what it is about me that draws you in. And make it something good, too. I don't want some lame "You're easy to target!" nonsense. I'm sure you have something better in your arsenal. Ouch. Inappropriate word usage? You know, considering your explosive background?

Phil, the reason people "target" you is that you make state your predictions with such certainty.

Here's an example of a wrong prediction I made regarding Dole's senate seat:

Her race to lose. She probably won't, though.

Here's the kind of prediction you post:

I expect him to lose the state by 6-8 points.

Six points? Wow.

You think McCain is going to win Pennsylvania. You have no room to talk about hackish posts.

LOL

PA = At the very most, a lean or likely Obama state.

TX = Safe McCain state

It doesn't compare, child. Go to bed. Mommy and Daddy won't like you sneaking onto the Internets four hours past your bedtime.

In the end, Texas was about a point more GOP than PA was Dem. Anyhow, you invite people to make fun of your predictions when you're all uppity about them in the first place.

[Keystone Phil]

Here's an example of a wrong prediction I made regarding Dole's senate seat:

Her race to lose. She probably won't, though.

Here's the kind of prediction you post:

I expect him to lose the state by 6-8 points.

Six points? Wow.

You think McCain is going to win Pennsylvania. You have no room to talk about hackish posts.

LOL

PA = At the very most, a lean or likely Obama state.

TX = Safe McCain state

It doesn't compare, child. Go to bed. Mommy and Daddy won't like you sneaking onto the Internets four hours past your bedtime.

In the end, Texas was about a point more GOP than PA was Dem. Anyhow, you invite people to make fun of your predictions when you're all uppity about them in the first place.

So....you give one example of your prediction and one example of mine. I'm sure you've never been cocky about a prediction especially when talking to a hack troll. For whatever reason, Iosif has been on my case since he got here. You're not even as bad as he has been.

At the same time that I make those cocky predictions, I'm one of the first people to admit when I'm wrong and send my best to the winners. I'm not looking to be showered with praise for that; I would simply like people to remember that before they go batshit on me.

[Iosif]

I'm confused - why would I take offence to the use of the word arsenal?

[Keystone Phil]

I'm confused - why would I take offence to the use of the word arsenal?

Hahaha. Excellent.