New Tradesports rankings

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Brutal.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

DEMOCRATS
Obama 83.1
Clinton 16.5
Gore 1.2
Edwards 0.2

OH: Clinton leads 58.0-42.7
TX: Obama leads 63-37
VT: Obama leads 93-7
RI: Obama leads 70-30.2
PA: Obama leads 75-34

REPUBLICANS
McCain 94.0
Giuliani 1.9
Huckabee 1.2
Paul 1.2
Romney 0.6
Rice 0.6
Gingrich 0.3
Thompson 0.2

OH: McCain 97.5
TX: McCain 92.0
PA: McCain 95.0


WINNING PARTY
Democrat 65.7
Republican 34.5
Field 1.2

WINNING INDIVIDUAL
Obama 54.6
McCain 35.4
Clinton 10.5
Bloomberg 1.0
Gore 0.7
Romney 0.3
Paul 0.3
Giuliani 0.3
Huckabee 0.3
Edwards 0.1
Field 0.2

Computed odds of winning general election if they get the nomination
Obama 65.7
Clinton 63.6
McCain 37.7

[Angel of Death]

What an outrage! I can't see Nader anywhere there!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

InTrade has a new contract, for Hillary's "lifeline", that she wins ALL of Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Currently trading at 18.0

[Lief 🗽]

InTrade has a new contract, for Hillary's "lifeline", that she wins ALL of Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Currently trading at 18.0

Meaning she wins the popular vote or most delegates? Because if it's the latter, that should be at 0.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

InTrade has a new contract, for Hillary's "lifeline", that she wins ALL of Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Currently trading at 18.0

Meaning she wins the popular vote or most delegates? Because if it's the latter, that should be at 0.

InTrade only uses the popular vote.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hillary is trading at 60.0 to drop out before the end of March.

[Reignman]

How can they be so confident Obama will win RI?

[© tweed]

How can they be so confident Obama will win RI?

the Obama Rhode Island stock collapsed after the Rasmussen poll came out showing Clinton up double digits.

[Speed of Sound]

In just the last couple of minutes, with the debate's results now clear, Clinton has dropped 1.7, and Obama is up 2.2.

[© tweed]

Al Gore now has a 150% chance of winning the election if nominated.

[Mr. Morden]

Al Gore now has a 150% chance of winning the election if nominated.

He could always run 3rd party.

[© tweed]

the most likely scenario for Gore winning without being nominated involves Obama being assassinated in September or October and Democrats replacing him with Gore on the ballot.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

the most likely scenario for Gore winning without being nominated involves Obama being assassinated in September or October and Democrats replacing him with Gore on the ballot.

There's also a higher chance of that happening than of Gore actually being nominated.

[Reignman]

I saw earlier that Clinton gained 1.6 points during the day, which isn't surprising, but Obama's still above 80.

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton has surged to 92.0 to win Ohio, while Obama has surged to 82.0 to win Texas (the primary, not the caucus).

Clinton plummets to 12.1 to win the Dem. nomination.

[J. J.]

Clinton has surged to 92.0 to win Ohio, while Obama has surged to 82.0 to win Texas (the primary, not the caucus).

Clinton plummets to 12.1 to win the Dem. nomination.

I have a feel will see a  Clinton upswing.

[Eraserhead]

Clinton has surged to 92.0 to win Ohio, while Obama has surged to 82.0 to win Texas (the primary, not the caucus).

Clinton plummets to 12.1 to win the Dem. nomination.

I have a feel will see a  Clinton upswing.

I wouldn't expect much of one.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Democratic nomination
Obama 72.5
Clinton 27.0
Gore 1.2
Edwards 0.1

Democratic states
Only counted those with at least 15 volume

WY: Obama 95-15
MS: Obama 95-14.5
PA: Clinton 74-30
NC: Obama 75.1-30
Superdelegates: Clinton 69.9-54.0

Republican nomination
McCain 96.1
Giuliani 1.3
Huckabee 1.0
Paul 1.0
Rice 0.6
Romney 0.5
Gingrich 0.2
Thompson 0.1

Winning party
Democratic 62.6
Republican 38.2
Field 0.7

Winning person
Obama 45.0
McCain 36.4
Clinton 18.7
Gore 1.3
Paul 0.5
Bloomberg 0.2
Giuiliani 0.2
Romney 0.2
Huckabee 0.1
Edwards 0.1
Field 0.1

Other stuff
Brokered Democratic convention: 20
Michigan re-vote: 45

Democratic control of
House 92.0
Senate 91.0

[Mr. Morden]

Other stuff
Brokered Democratic convention: 20
Michigan re-vote: 45

Both of these are too high.  I've already explained countless times why a "brokered convention" as Intrade defines it isn't going to happen.  (Hint: If everyone votes for one of two candidates on the first ballot, one of the two will get a majority, unless there's an exact tie.)

But regarding the Michigan re-vote.....the Michigan Dems would have to agree to that (or else the state legislature would, and that's even less likely), and they've (so far) shown absolutely no interest in doing so.  And it's not like you can organize a new caucus or primary overnight.  If they're going to do it, they have to get working on it pretty soon.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Michigan does have a vote coming up (sort of), the district conventions on the 29th, sort of a caucus. It's here that the delegates will be chosen, and there will no doubt be a fight over the uncomitteds. The DNC is not going to seat the current delegation from Michigan (as I pointed out, to do so would be to actually punish Obama for his act taken in support of their rules), so one possible compromise might be to seat the entire delegation in proportion to what the uncommitted delegation gets at the time.

[Mr. Morden]

OK, but I assume those district conventions wouldn't count as a "new primary" as far as Intrade is concerned.  But who knows.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

OK, but I assume those district conventions wouldn't count as a "new primary" as far as Intrade is concerned.  But who knows.

Oh I agree. I'm just saying, that's probably the only way Michigan will get a delegation that's elected in some way. The only other way I see is if they agree to give all the uncommitted to Obama.

[NHPolitico]

Winning person
Obama 45.0
McCain 36.4
Clinton 18.7

I think the odds of McCain winning the general are way undervalued.  I think having this nomination go to June is going to be disastrous for the Democrats.

[Mr. Morden]

OK, but I assume those district conventions wouldn't count as a "new primary" as far as Intrade is concerned.  But who knows.

Oh I agree. I'm just saying, that's probably the only way Michigan will get a delegation that's elected in some way. The only other way I see is if they agree to give all the uncommitted to Obama.

That may be the only way Michigan gets an elected delegation that has an influence on who wins the nomination.

However, I still think it's highly likely that one of the two candidates (more likely Obama) ends up with a big enough lead that they just end up seating the existing delegation anyway, because it's not going to change the outcome.  There are far more superdelegates than Michigan delegates, so if the superdelegates end up going for one candidate en masse, that person will win anyway, and the Michigan delegates' votes will be irrelevant to the outcome.  Under that scenario, they'll probably just let Michigan have whatever delegation it wants, just to make peace with them.