New Tradesports rankings

[Mr. Morden]

McCain's being overrated right now. No doubt about it.

Well, yeah, at this point.  A McCain jump was long overdue, but the market went overboard. 

True....but is he really any more overvalued than Giuliani is?

Btw, Giuliani is still absurdly overvalued to win the FL and PA primaries.  50.0 to win the former and 71.2 on the latter.  Shorting him on both of those is a great deal.

[Erc]

Giuliani 28.4
Romney 25.8
McCain 16.9
Huckabee 14.7
Paul 7.2
Thompson 4.0

Clinton 63.0
Obama 29.4
Edwards 5.5
Gore 2.6

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Btw, Giuliani is still absurdly overvalued to win the FL and PA primaries.  50.0 to win the former and 71.2 on the latter.  Shorting him on both of those is a great deal.

Excellent point on Pennsylvania.  I just sold 16 of Giuliani to win there—basically, the money I just made on that incredibly well timed NH Senate trade.

There's still four shares left sitting out of Giuliani to win at 70.  You're risking $3 each to win $7.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

McCain being ahead of Huckabee is almost as amusing as Paul's numbers. At least there's an explanation for Paul's numbers (legions of delusional cult-like fanboys), I don't see any explanation for that.

[Reignman]

Yup. I'd say McCain stock collapses after New Hampshire.

[Erc]

Yup. I'd say McCain stock collapses after New Hampshire.

Unless, of course, he wins NH.

But he's still overvalued at the moment--he's got no better than a 1 in 3 shot at NH (at best), and he's by no means the favorite should he win NH--and, should he lose NH, he has no chance at the nomination.

[Reignman]

Yeah, he MIGHT win NH, but I think he needs a BIG win there to go to win the nomination, and I definitely don't see how that can happen. After NH, everyone's (probably) gonna look around and go "So...where else can McCain do well?"

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

McCain's route to the nomination is simple: clean up on Super Duper Tuesday.  This only works if Giuliani is absolutely and totally trashed in the primaries leading up to it.

[© tweed]

McCain > Romney in NH market.

[© tweed]

McCain > Romney in NH market.

and Hillary > Obama in the bid column in the IA market (although Obama still leads last transaction).

[© tweed]

also BLOOMBERG.08.INDEPENDENT is way down in the single digits.  it seems to be undervalued...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

McCain's route to the nomination is simple: clean up on Super Duper Tuesday.  This only works if Giuliani is absolutely and totally trashed in the primaries leading up to it.

And if he has any money other than spare change under his couch, which he currently doesn't.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

McCain > Romney in NH market.

Despite not leading in NH in a single poll.

[Eraserhead]

McCain > Romney in NH market.

and Hillary > Obama in the bid column in the IA market (although Obama still leads last transaction).

This is probably because of the faux poll released by ARG.

[Reignman]

Was that the one that showed Hillary way ahead in Iowa? Give me a break.

[Eraserhead]

Was that the one that showed Hillary way ahead in Iowa? Give me a break.

Yes. Of course people who are really in the know understand that ARG is a joke.... worse than Zogby even.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

McCain's route to the nomination is simple: clean up on Super Duper Tuesday.  This only works if Giuliani is absolutely and totally trashed in the primaries leading up to it.

And if he has any money other than spare change under his couch, which he currently doesn't.

A win in New Hampshire sends McCain's fundraising through the roof.

[Reignman]

A McCain win in NH would be pretty easy to spin: He did it before and then lost the nomination.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

To expound on my last point, and give more specifics:

For McCain to win the nomination, the current surge needs to be real, and not only last through to the IA/NH voting, but grow in the meantime.

IOWA
Huckabee needs to win this thing by a huge margin over Romney.  That part is clear.  But, to maximize McCain's potential, he needs a very strong showing in the state, preferably as the anti-Huckabee.  McCain ideally needs to finish second, and it sure as hell wouldn't hurt for Ron Paul to sneak his way into third (unlikely, put possible) or at least fourth (doable).  Romney needs to finish third.  Rudy needs to finish fifth.

NEW HAMPSHIRE
With Iowa behind the candidates, McCain should get a small boost in the polls, thanks to Romney and Giuliani voters falling off their respective bandwagons.  Ron Paul would probably pick up some strength, and Huckabee might get some extra votes too (but not enough to win).  When it comes time for the actual vote, McCain needs a clear-cut win.  Romney losing here should all but finish him, and if Giuliani finishes low enough, his supporters in other states may begin to drift off and start looking at McCain.

(Thompson who?)

BEYOND
If the first two pieces fall into place, Giuliani will be largely out as a candidate, left to hope for a Super Duper Tuesday miracle, Romney will be largely finished (he's betting everything on IA and NH), and Paul never had a serious shot at the nomination anyway.

It'll be down to McCain and Huckabee.  If this happens, McCain will become the default nominee of the big moneyed interests, specifically the Club for Growth types who find Huckabee loathsome.  The new nationalized primary schedule helps McCain, and should largely deflect a big loss in South Carolina to Huckabee.  The new money should help him be able to pick up the states Giuliani is hoping to—winning California, Michigan, and the rest, losing only the states in the deep south.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Huckabee vs. McCain seems very similar to Bush vs. McCain.

[ag]

Huckabee vs. McCain seems very similar to Bush vs. McCain.

Except McCain would be the establishment candidate.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

DEMOCRATS

Nomination
Clinton 69.3
Obama 25.0
Edwards 5.6
Gore 2.0
Richardson 0.2
Biden 0.1

Iowa
Clinton 45.0
Obama 40.0
Edwards 16.2
Richardson 0.1
Field 0.1

New Hampshire
Clinton 63.3
Obama 40.0
Edwards 3.0
Richardson 0.1
Dodd 0.1
Field 0.1

REPUBLICANS

Nomination
Giuliani 28.5
Romney 23.3
McCain 18.0
Huckabee 13.8
Paul 6.4
Thompson 3.3
Rice 0.5
Gingrich 0.2
Bloomberg 0.2
Hunter 0.1

Iowa
Huckabee 55.0
Romney 33.0
McCain 4.0
Thompson 1.5
Giuliani 0.4
Field 5.9

New Hampshire
Romney 50.0
McCain 42.1
Huckabee 4.9
Giuliani 1.0
Thompson 0.2

[Verily]

Huckabee vs. McCain seems very similar to Bush vs. McCain.

Except McCain would be the establishment candidate.

Not really. I don't think either would be the establishment candidate. Among those with a serious chance, Romney is the establishment candidate; if he implodes, there will be no establishment candidate on the Republican side.

[© tweed]

Clinton's overvalued

[Likely Voter]

why on earth is Guilliani still the favorite in the betting? He isnt leading in any of the early primaries and he is now trailing Huckabee in the national polling. He is a scandal ridden gun hating, gay loving,  thrice-married New York liberal with health problems trailing in the polls...why are people still betting on him winning?