New Tradesports rankings

[Mr. Morden]

Brownback and Hagel are now at their lowest points since early January.  Compared to a couple weeks ago, Huckabee isn't doing too well either, but he's at least regained some of the ground he lost immediately after the Fred Thompson buzz started.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Gore gains at Obama's expense
Lots of Republicans lose, while only Romney and Jeb Bush (!) gain.

Democrats
Clinton 44.9
Obama 30.1
Gore 10.6
Edwards 8.7
Richardson 3.9
Biden 1.0
Clark 0.4
Dodd 0.4
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Bayh 0.2

Republicans
Giuliani 40.2
McCain 22.8
Romney 16.0
F. Thompson 7.1
Gingrich 3.7
Huckabee 2.6
Hagel 2.2
Brownback 1.8
Rice 1.7
J. Bush 0.7
Bloomberg 0.6
T. Thompson 0.5
Cheney 0.5
Powell 0.3
Paul 0.2
Hunter 0.2

[Mr. Morden]

I was watching Tucker Carlson's show earlier today on MSNBC.  They had a journalist on who was talking about the effort to draft Jeb Bush.  Maybe some people saw that segment, and decided to buy Jeb shares.

So which of the following do you expect to happen first (if they happen at all)?

- F. Thompson odds to win GOP nomination surpasses Edwards odds to win Dem. nomination

- Gore odds to win Dem. nomination surpasses Romney odds to win GOP nomination

- Romney odds to win GOP nomination surpasses McCain odds to win GOP nomination

- Gore odds to win the general election surpasses McCain odds to win the general election

[Bacon King]

So which of the following do you expect to happen first (if they happen at all)?

- F. Thompson odds to win GOP nomination surpasses Edwards odds to win Dem. nomination

- Gore odds to win Dem. nomination surpasses Romney odds to win GOP nomination

- Romney odds to win GOP nomination surpasses McCain odds to win GOP nomination

- Gore odds to win the general election surpasses McCain odds to win the general election

The first, followed by the second. The third won't happen and the fourth would only happen if Gore actually announces he's running (he won't).

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Edwards gains, otherwise small movement among the Democrats.
The top 4 Republicans all gain, no one seemed to corrrespondingly go down.


Democrats
Clinton 45.2
Obama 30.1
Gore 10.6
Edwards 9.9
Richardson 4.0
Biden 1.0
Clark 0.4
Dodd 0.3
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2

Republicans
Giuliani 42.0
McCain 23.6
Romney 16.5
F. Thompson 7.8
Gingrich 3.7
Huckabee 2.6
Hagel 2.1
Brownback 2.1
Rice 1.8
Bloomberg 0.8
J. Bush 0.6
Cheney 0.6
T. Thompson 0.5
Powell 0.5
Paul 0.3
Hunter 0.3
Owens 0.2

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Clinton gains, while other top Democrats lose

Lots of Republicans go down, including Romney, Hagel, Brownback, Powell. No one correspondingly gains. There are now only 5 Republicans above 2.2, and only 9 Republicans above  0.5

Democrats
Clinton 46.2
Obama 29.0
Gore 10.0
Edwards 9.9
Richardson 3.9
Biden 0.9
Clark 0.4
Dodd 0.3
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2

Republicans
Giuliani 42.1
McCain 23.4
Romney 15.4
F. Thompson 7.8
Gingrich 3.7
Huckabee 2.2
Hagel 2.1
Rice 1.6
Brownback 1.2
Bloomberg 0.5
T. Thompson 0.4
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
Hunter 0.3
Powell 0.2
Paul 0.2

[WalterMitty]

why is dodd so low?!?!?!

[Eraserhead]

why is dodd so low?!?!?!

...because he has no chance?

[Reaganfan]

why is dodd so low?!?!?!

He's only been a Senator for over 20 years, Walter! In order to stand a good shot a Democratic Momentum, you need atleast 18 months Senate experience.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Clinton and Edwards drop a bit.
McCain seriously tanks, Romney is now not much behind him.
Hagel and Brownback are now below Rice. That's pretty harsh.

Democrats
Clinton 45.4
Obama 29.4
Gore 9.7
Edwards 9.0
Richardson 4.0
Biden 0.8
Clark 0.4
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2

Republicans
Giuliani 42.6
McCain 20.1
Romney 16.0
F. Thompson 7.8
Gingrich 3.7
Huckabee 2.2
Rice 1.6
Hagel 1.5
Brownback 1.2
Bloomberg 0.5
T. Thompson 0.4
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
Hunter 0.3
Powell 0.2
Paul 0.2

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Edwards is close to a few month low.
McCain recovers a bit.
Fred Thompson hits a new record high.

Democrats
Clinton 45.8
Obama 29.2
Gore 10.2
Edwards 8.8
Richardson 4.0
Biden 0.9
Clark 0.4
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2

Republicans
Giuliani 41.0
McCain 22.0
Romney 16.4
F. Thompson 8.7
Gingrich 3.4
Huckabee 2.2
Rice 1.6
Hagel 1.5
Brownback 1.2
Bloomberg 0.5
T. Thompson 0.4
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
Hunter 0.3
Powell 0.2
Paul 0.2

[WalterMitty]

why is dodd so low?!?!?!

...because he has no chance?

we will see about that.

[Mr. Morden]

So which of the following do you expect to happen first (if they happen at all)?

- F. Thompson odds to win GOP nomination surpasses Edwards odds to win Dem. nomination

- Gore odds to win Dem. nomination surpasses Romney odds to win GOP nomination

- Romney odds to win GOP nomination surpasses McCain odds to win GOP nomination

- Gore odds to win the general election surpasses McCain odds to win the general election

The first, followed by the second. The third won't happen and the fourth would only happen if Gore actually announces he's running (he won't).

You were right on the first.  Thompson odds to win GOP nomination have now reached a new high of 8.9, while Edwards odds to win Dem. nomination is down to 8.8.  Now we'll have to see if you're right that the next to happen will be Gore surpassing Romney.  Romney has been rebounding in the last week, so it might be a while before it happens...if it happens at all.

If I can step back for a second on this....wow.  Edwards has been regarded as one of the "big three" contenders for the Democratic nomination for months now.  And now, not only do the Intrade betters rate Gore as having a better shot at the nomination, but they also think that Fred Thompson, who first expressed interest in a run about two weeks ago, has a better shot at the GOP nomination than Edwards has at the Dem. nomination?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If I can step back for a second on this....wow.  Edwards has been regarded as one of the "big three" contenders for the Democratic nomination for months now.  And now, not only do the Intrade betters rate Gore as having a better shot at the nomination, but they also think that Fred Thompson, who first expressed interest in a run about two weeks ago, has a better shot at the GOP nomination than Edwards has at the Dem. nomination?

Rumors on the Internets are that Edwards will announce that his wife has cancer tommorrow and drop out. Of course, I'm hoping that the rumors are wrong.

[Mr. Morden]

Well, the WaPo says that Edwards is holding a news conference tomorrow to discuss his wife's health.  But no indication that he's going to drop out:

link

[Mr. Morden]

Edwards has now plummetted to 4.5.  He's behind Richardson now.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Edwards is plummenting due to speculation that his wife has cancer.
He's lost over 50% in the last day.
Richardson is now ahead of him.

Democrats
Clinton 46.7
Obama 31.4
Gore 11.1
Richardson 4.6
Edwards 4.4
Biden 0.9
Dodd 0.5
Clark 0.4
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Vilsack 0.2
Bayh 0.1

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Edwards cratered to 1.0 before going back up to 4.5. Very heavy trading.
Obama is a record high.

Democrats
Clinton 45.8
Obama 32.0
Gore 10.2
Edwards 4.5
Richardson 4.0
Biden 0.9
Clark 0.4
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Vilsack 0.1
Bayh 0.1

[Jacobtm]

Wow, if Edwards keeps campaigning, anyone who buys now will have 4 or 5 times more money very shortly.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If Edwards stays in, anyone buying his stock now is going to be rich.

Why the hell is Gore still so high?

[Eraserhead]

why is dodd so low?!?!?!

...because he has no chance?

we will see about that.

I wouldn't totally mind being wrong. I like the guy.

[Mr. Morden]

Edwards has now rebounded to 7.5.  24 hours ago, he was at 8.8, so he's still down a little from where he was, but anyone who was buying Edwards shares a few hours ago would have made a killing.

[Eraserhead]

I wouldn't expect him to reach 8.8 again any time soon.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I wouldn't expect him to reach 8.8 again any time soon.

There was a trade of 9.0 after the announcement.

[Reignman]

Wow, if Edwards keeps campaigning, anyone who buys now will have 4 or 5 times more money very shortly.