Does the campaign really matter?

[zorkpolitics]

Some people have wondered why Bush is still about even with Kerry after a fairly bad three months of news from Iraq and the 9-11 commision.  One explaination could be that Kerry is a poor candidate.  But maybe there is another.

Rasmussen suggests that nearly 90% of voters made up their minds about Election 2004 four years ago, and that many of the rest probably won’t decide until after the World Series is played in October.

Since Rasmussen uses the same polling methodology every day, his daily tracking poll data is an excellent source to see how news and campaign events influence voter choices.
His data shows that, since Jan., Bush and Kerry have been statistically tied every single week (MOE 2%).  

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Weekly%20Tracking%20Updates.htm

If anything, Kerry may have a small advantage, since Mar 25 when he was ahead for the first time, he has led in 9 weeks and Bush 5.

Rasmussen suggests it is the last 10% of voters that will determine the election winner and they may not really be paying attention yet, since they probably won’t decide until after the World Series is played in October.

If this is correct than the current campaign and all our daily posts are really much to do about nothing.

[Nation]

You may be onto something, but I've no doubt the conventions for both candidates will drum up major news coverage and possibly allow for some bumps in polls that put either candidate outside the MoE

[mddem2004]

For the most part I believe you are right. I think that of that 90% there are about 10% that could still change their minds though. And of the 10% that won't decide for sure until October, many can still get some influence, or bias, or pre-conceived notions about the candidates that could influence a later final decision. Also, in the case of the challenger (presumably less known than the incumbant) this time period he is both vulnerable to be defined and has an opportunity to define himself. People already judge a president irregardless of the campaign.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Some people have wondered why Bush is still about even with Kerry after a fairly bad three months of news from Iraq and the 9-11 commision.  One explaination could be that Kerry is a poor candidate.  But maybe there is another.

Rasmussen suggests that nearly 90% of voters made up their minds about Election 2004 four years ago, and that many of the rest probably won’t decide until after the World Series is played in October.

Since Rasmussen uses the same polling methodology every day, his daily tracking poll data is an excellent source to see how news and campaign events influence voter choices.
His data shows that, since Jan., Bush and Kerry have been statistically tied every single week (MOE 2%).  

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Weekly%20Tracking%20Updates.htm

If anything, Kerry may have a small advantage, since Mar 25 when he was ahead for the first time, he has led in 9 weeks and Bush 5.

Rasmussen suggests it is the last 10% of voters that will determine the election winner and they may not really be paying attention yet, since they probably won’t decide until after the World Series is played in October.

If this is correct than the current campaign and all our daily posts are really much to do about nothing.

At least three quarters of the voters in every election in the sixty plus years have decided who they're going to vote for once the parties have selected their nominees.  With no real competition, Bush has been the Republican nominee de facto, and Kerry the Democrat nominee de facto for three months.

The interesting thing is that Kerry is a lousy campaigner.  He does better when he goes into hiding.  He is politically tone deaf both in substance and style.  If it weren't for his handlers trying desperately to get him PUBLICLY back off from his very liberal positions he would be in the soup.

Just wait until the public gets a better look at Kerry.  He won't wear well at all (and he cann't keep hiding).  

[cwelsch]

The start of the campaign to most of the country is the conventions and then the debates.  A lot of people don't start paying attention until the last weeks of the campaign, maybe 6 weeks, give or take.

Kerry better have a great convention speech or this campaign will continue to stagnate.  The public is very cool to both candidates, Kerry because he's such a nothing and Bush because he's had so many problems in this campaign.  I honestly think a third party campaign can pick up on the discontentment and turn it into a bit of a surge.

But this is shaping up to be a very close, pivotal election that very well might come down to 4 am the day after the election, and somehow it will also manage to be very boring for the four months up to that.