Nutmeg's 2008 Senate Race Ratings

[Nutmeg]

Based on announced and likely candidates at this point.  I rank most of them as safe for now because few challengers have announced yet, and the leaners are there mostly because of the marginal nature of their state.  Generally, I feel that the "safe" senators are unlikely to be beaten if they run, whereas "lean"ers could be defeated even if they do run again.

Obviously much will change, and I intend to keep this list updated.


Safe D
AR - Pryor
DE - Biden
IL - Durbin
IA - Harkin
MA - Kerry
MI - Levin
MT - Baucus
RI - Reed
SD - Johnson
WV - Rockefeller

Lean D
* CO - Allard  (Udall)
LA - Landrieu
NJ - Lautenberg

Tossup

Lean R
MN - Coleman
NH - Sununu
OR - Smith

Safe R
AL - Sessions
AK - Stevens
GA - Chambliss
ID - Craig
KS - Roberts
KY - McConnell
ME - Collins
MS - Cochran
NE - Hagel
NM - Domenici
NC - Dole
OK - Inhofe
SC - Graham
TN - Alexander
TX - Cornyn
VA - Warner
WY - Enzi

* Denotes pickup.

[Joel the Attention Whore]

Safe D
MA - Kerry

Hope to change that.

[Verily]

Safe D
MA - Kerry

Hope to change that.

If Kerry retires, the seat is even more safe than if he doesn't. Not that he wouldn't win reelection, of course.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Safe D
MA - Kerry

Hope to change that.

Yeah, Republicans with fake identities always landslide in Massachusetts.

[memphis]

No way is Johnson's seat safe. He just barely won in 2002. Lean perhaps. Definately not safe.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

No way is Johnson's seat safe. He just barely won in 2002. Lean perhaps. Definately not safe.

Thune obviously isn't running again. No Janklow. That leaves probably only Rounds to worry about. No Rounds = easy Johnson re-election. Johnson would probably beat the much more extreme Rounds, too.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I wouldn't be so quick to just write in Udall, unless Tancredo is his opponent, this race leans Republican this point as I think Allard would win marginally and Gov. Owens comfortablly (about 5-7 points)

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I wouldn't be so quick to just write in Udall, unless Tancredo is his opponent, this race leans Republican this point as I think Allard would win marginally and Gov. Owens comfortablly (about 5-7 points)

How bout no?  That was a pretty simple yet correct answer

Until the greatest campaigner and repeat odds defier Santorum has officially lost, I still believe he will come back

Duly noted.

[InsideTheBeltway]

Lean R

VA - Warner

Does this assume that Warner will retire?  I remember seeing somewhere that a Virginia insider said Warner's running again was as likely as "Hillary running in 2008"-maybe I'll try to find the link later.

I would assume Warner would be safe if he ran again, despite the Dems' recent gains here (assuming Mark Warner doesn't run, of course).

[MAS117]

Lean R

VA - Warner

Does this assume that Warner will retire?  I remember seeing somewhere that a Virginia insider said Warner's running again was as likely as "Hillary running in 2008"-maybe I'll try to find the link later.

I would assume Warner would be safe if he ran again, despite the Dems' recent gains here (assuming Mark Warner doesn't run, of course).

What other Warner-Kaine-Webb type Democrats does Virginia have that have the ability to win statewide office? We'd have to see about that. Actually I woulnd't mind if Kaine took a shot at the 2008 seat because he cant seat reelection in 09 for Governor.

[Wiz in Wis]

Safe D
DE - Biden*
IL - Durbin
IA - Harkin
MA - Kerry*
MI - Levin
MT - Baucus
RI - Reed

Likley D
AR - Pryor
WV - Rockefeller

Lean D
SD - Johnson

Tossup
CO - Allard*
LA - Landrieu
NJ - Lautenberg*
MN - Coleman
NH - Sununu

Lean R
OR - Smith
VA - Warner*

Likely R
NC - Dole
TX - Cornyn
ME - Collins

Safe R
AL - Sessions
AK - Stevens
GA - Chambliss
ID - Craig
KS - Roberts
KY - McConnell
MS - Cochran*
NE - Hagel*
NM - Domenici
OK - Inhofe
SC - Graham
TN - Alexander
WY - Enzi

*Subject to possible retirement

[Nutmeg]

Safe D
MA - Kerry

Hope to change that.

How so?

Lean R
VA - Warner

Does this assume that Warner will retire?  I remember seeing somewhere that a Virginia insider said Warner's running again was as likely as "Hillary running in 2008"-maybe I'll try to find the link later.

I would assume Warner would be safe if he ran again, despite the Dems' recent gains here (assuming Mark Warner doesn't run, of course).

Good point.  My "lean"ers are based on my belief that most any challenger they receive will give them a run for the money.  Since Warner (R) would probably only get a good fight from Warner (D), VA should get a "solid" ranking at the current time.  Thanks.