2008 Senate Matchups: Texas

[Rob]

Jumping on the bandwagon...

First-term Republican Senator John Cornyn, despite underwhelming approval ratings, wins the GOP nomination uncontested. On the Democratic front, 28th District Congressman Henry Cuellar easily defeats 2006 nominee Barbara Ann Radnofsky.

The general election is fiercely contested. Cuellar, the first Democrat ever to be endorsed by the Club for Growth, calls himself a "common-sense conservative" and attacks Cornyn as a "radical" out of touch with normal Texans. Cornyn says "a vote for Henry Cuellar is a vote for Hillary Clinton and Ted Kennedy", and attacks him for endorsing John Kerry in 2004.

What happens?

[7,052,770]

I'd rather Chris Bell than Cuellar.

[Deano963]

Who cares? Cuellar is a disgrace to Democrats. He's one one of the only people I would actually label a DINO. I don't even mind Nelson, in fact I like him mostly, but Cuellar is awful.

[Verily]

Who cares? Cuellar is a disgrace to Democrats. He's one one of the only people I would actually label a DINO. I don't even mind Nelson, in fact I like him mostly, but Cuellar is awful.

Cuellar is not a DINO.

ROFL. Cuellar is a bigger DINO than Chafee is a RINO.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Actually Cueller endorsed Bush in 2004, but in Texas that is what it takes to win.    Besides, its not like the majority of congressional Dems. are principled simples of integrety; waits for someone to tell me change my aviator, but not my party.

[© tweed]

Cuellar (shoot myself in the face immediately thereafter)/probably Cornyn

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Actually Cueller endorsed Bush in 2004, but in Texas that is what it takes to win.    Besides, its not like the majority of congressional Dems. are principled simples of integrety; waits for someone to tell me change my aviator, but not my party.

Well, the main advantage of Cuellar running for Senate would be that a Democrat would then win his House seat. Stupid open primary system allowing Republicans to pose as Democrats.

[Verily]

Actually Cueller endorsed Bush in 2004, but in Texas that is what it takes to win.    Besides, its not like the majority of congressional Dems. are principled simples of integrety; waits for someone to tell me change my aviator, but not my party.

Well, the main advantage of Cuellar running for Senate would be that a Democrat would then win his House seat. Stupid open primary system allowing Republicans to pose as Democrats.

Pelosi better not shun moderate Democrats cause without them, we may not have retaken the house...

He's not a moderate Democrat. Mary Landrieu is a moderate Democrat. He's not even a conservative Democrat. Ben Nelson is a conservative Democrat. He's an ultraconservative Democrat.

[Rob]

Actually Cueller endorsed Bush in 2004, but in Texas that is what it takes to win.

No; he endorsed Bush in 2000 (and campaigned for him), but backed Kerry in 2004, saying that Bush had failed to govern in a bipartisan manner.

From The Hill:

Some Democrats have at times speculated that Cuellar is so conservative that he could switch parties, but Cuellar sought to put those rumors to rest.

“My first vote was for [House Democratic Leader] Nancy Pelosi [Calif.]. Next time, my first vote will be for Nancy Pelosi.”

[nini2287]

Cuellar (massive FF)/Cornyn (HP)

[Deano963]

Well, the main advantage of Cuellar running for Senate would be that a Democrat would then win his House seat. Stupid open primary system allowing Republicans to pose as Democrats.

Oooooh....I hadn't thougt about that at all. Good thinking, jfern.

Cuellar for Senate!!!

Heck, if we're gonna lose the TX Senate race(which I think we will no matter who we run), we might as well strengthen the Democratic caucus by replacing one of the few DINO/borderline Republicans with a real Democrat.

Well, the main advantage of Cuellar running for Senate would be that a Democrat would then win his House seat. Stupid open primary system allowing Republicans to pose as Democrats.

Pelosi better not shun moderate Democrats cause without them, we may not have retaken the house...

What on Earth does that have to do with what he just said? What does it have to do with anything we are talking about for that matter? Unless you know of some moderate Dem that is undeservedly getting a raw deal from Pelosi that I am unaware of, I would suggest you not say things that have no basis in fact.

Keep in mind that Cuellar is by no stretch of the imagination a moderate Democrat. He is at best a very, very conservative Democrat who frequently stabs his own caucus in the back on very important votes such as CAFTA.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Would the Dems be assured of taking his seat or would be a competitive race?

[DownWithTheLeft]

I don't feel like arguing. I am just saying Cuellar is a very important part of our coalition

James, it isn't worth arguing w/Diaherria

[Sam Spade]

First off, every border Texas Democrat (with the exception of Silvestre Reyes, and that was very close, probably the reason why he got the Intel. job) backs CAFTA and has backed every Free Trade agreement that I've ever seen presented. 

Especially in South Texas (less so in El Paso, where Reyes' district is), free trade agreements like NAFTA have brought that area out of abject poverty and into a certain amount of economic growth.  The people there support the agreements wholeheartedly along with their Northern Mexico brethren, who have benefitted immensely from the agreement and were the main driving force behind Fox and now Calderon's victory in Mexico.

Second, SUSA's approval polls suck for Texas.  They oversample Democrats and because only about 50% of adults will vote, a sample of 600 adults is extremely pointless.  Cornyn's approval rating is higher than it looks for this reason (among others)

Of course, Cornyn is a rabid Republican partisan.  But rabid Republican partisanship gets you a certain amount of votes in Texas (roughly 55%, perhaps a little more), unless your opponent is extremely talented, and even then it is extremely tough, due to the overabundance of straight-ticket voting.

Cuellar could get massive turnout along the border, but that has rarely helped statewide much more than 1% or so, and the factor of running against an incumbent cannot be underestimated. 

Short statement, if Cuellar runs, it'll be very tough for him to get above 47% in a Prez year, especially.  Granted, he can count on 40% of voters voting for him regardless, but it just shows how rigid the margins are in Texas right now.

[Deano963]

Well, the main advantage of Cuellar running for Senate would be that a Democrat would then win his House seat. Stupid open primary system allowing Republicans to pose as Democrats.

Oooooh....I hadn't thougt about that at all. Good thinking, jfern.

Cuellar for Senate!!!

Heck, if we're gonna lose the TX Senate race(which I think we will no matter who we run), we might as well strengthen the Democratic caucus by replacing one of the few DINO/borderline Republicans with a real Democrat.

Well, the main advantage of Cuellar running for Senate would be that a Democrat would then win his House seat. Stupid open primary system allowing Republicans to pose as Democrats.

Pelosi better not shun moderate Democrats cause without them, we may not have retaken the house...

What on Earth does that have to do with what he just said? What does it have to do with anything we are talking about for that matter? Unless you know of some moderate Dem that is undeservedly getting a raw deal from Pelosi that I am unaware of, I would suggest you not say things that have no basis in fact.

Keep in mind that Cuellar is by no stretch of the imagination a moderate Democrat. He is at best a very, very conservative Democrat who frequently stabs his own caucus in the back on very important votes such as CAFTA.

I don't feel like arguing. I am just saying Cuellar is a very important part of our coalition

No, he isn't. He is a thorn in the "coalition's" side.

And jamespol, tell your bed-wetting friend DWTL the correct way to spell D-I-A-R-R-H-E-A. I realize it's hard when your friend is in the 10th grade, but do your best.

[Rob]

He's not a moderate Democrat. Mary Landrieu is a moderate Democrat. He's not even a conservative Democrat. Ben Nelson is a conservative Democrat. He's an ultraconservative Democrat.

I should note something here. Cuellar is actually a bit to the left of Nelson- his lifetime ACU rating is 52, while Nelson's is 53. He isn't even the most conservative Democrat in the House... that would be Mississippi's Gene Taylor, with a 68 percent rating. I can agree with the DINO label, but calling him "ultraconservative" is a gross exaggeration.

Cuellar should be the pragmatic choice for progressives. Not only would his Senate run free up his House seat to be taken by a liberal, but he is our strongest possible statewide candidate. If nothing else, he'll force the GOP to waste resources in Texas.

Short statement, if Cuellar runs, it'll be very tough for him to get above 47% in a Prez year, especially.  Granted, he can count on 40% of voters voting for him regardless, but it just shows how rigid the margins are in Texas right now.

Who would you vote for, Sam?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I hope this happens, it's a great way to get rid of Cueller and get an actual Democrat in his seat.

[True Democrat]

Cuellar/Cornyn by a hair.

[Sam Spade]

Short statement, if Cuellar runs, it'll be very tough for him to get above 47% in a Prez year, especially.  Granted, he can count on 40% of voters voting for him regardless, but it just shows how rigid the margins are in Texas right now.

Who would you vote for, Sam?

My voting registration is not in Texas, hasn't been for about 3 years now. 

[Rob]

Who would you vote for if you were registered in Texas, Sam?

[Sam Spade]

Who would you vote for if you were registered in Texas, Sam?

Probably Cuellar, though I wouldn't be able to say this far out.  As witnessed by my probable vote for Chuck Schumer in his next Senate campaign in NY, I am not opposed to supporting rabid partisans when I think they are competent.

2002 was actually the last major election (I voted in 2003, when nothing worth mentioning was on the ballot) I voted in Texas.

As I recall, I think I voted Libertarian in this race in 2002, because I couldn't bring myself to voting for Cornyn (who was actually a pretty good State Supreme Court justice, but only an so-so attorney general (I did vote for him over Jim Mattox in 1998, because I never liked Mattox much)), and I wasn't voting for Kirk, who was and still is a total loser.  Him and his progeny (Laura Miller included) have turned the city of Dallas into a real sh**thole frankly.

In that election, other than me voting for John Sharp (and Dewhurst was a good candidate as well, tough choice there), and my local cadre of Hispanic Democrats in the Congress, State Senate and State House, I think I voted Republicans for every other major statewide office that year.  Tony Sanchez was terrible and the rest of their candidates were total incompetents.

In the state SC and Court of Criminal Appeals, I don't remember who I voted for, probably just randomly pressed buttons.  Well, in the Court of Criminal Appeals, I probably voted Republican just to make sure all those death row prisoners correctly get to the chamber quickly.

I could list all the county judgeships, but they're kind of boring, and the Democrats don't run candidates for any of them.

[Governor PiT]

Kinky!

[WalterMitty]

both are okay.

id vote cornyn and he would win.

[Rob]

id vote cornyn

If there was a single Democrat I thought you would be certain to support, it would be Henry Cuellar. Endorsed by the Club for Growth, dedicated to free trade and limited government, but without the overall nuttiness of Cornyn...

That's some hardcore partisanship.

[agcatter]

Cornyn is not going to lose his senate seat to any statewide Democrat.  Forget it.  No Dem has won a statewide election in Texas in a decade.

Dems poured 25 million into Ron Kirk's Senate campaign in 2002 trying to paint him as a "conservative" Democrat.  He lost by 12 points.  You non Texas Dems on this board need to quit substituting your wishful thinking for reality on the ground.  Trust me.  We will have another Dem Senator from Texas when Illinois elects a Republican Senator.  Aint a happening thing.