Fahrenheit 9/11 impact?

[millwx]

Any guesses as to whether Fahrenheit 9/11 will have any impact on the election?

The argument against it having an impact is that it will only attract anti-Bush viewers anyway.  So, only Kerry (or Nader, for that matter) voters will attend anyway.

The argument for it having an impact is that some fence-sitters or even weak Bush supporters might view it and be swayed.  Moreover, some young people, who tend to not vote but also tend to be more left leaning, may be motivated to vote... helping Kerry turnout.

Personally, I think it'll have little to no impact.  I think everyday, ongoing issues (progress in Iraq, or lack thereof, and progress on the economy, or lack thereof) will rule the day.  As such, F9/11 will be "just a movie".  But, I certainly see some validity in both arguments above, and box office returns from Friday were booming.  So, I'd be interested in what other people think the impact will be... if any.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Any guesses as to whether Fahrenheit 9/11 will have any impact on the election?

The argument against it having an impact is that it will only attract anti-Bush viewers anyway.  So, only Kerry (or Nader, for that matter) voters will attend anyway.

The argument for it having an impact is that some fence-sitters or even weak Bush supporters might view it and be swayed.  Moreover, some young people, who tend to not vote but also tend to be more left leaning, may be motivated to vote... helping Kerry turnout.

Personally, I think it'll have little to no impact.  I think everyday, ongoing issues (progress in Iraq, or lack thereof, and progress on the economy, or lack thereof) will rule the day.  As such, F9/11 will be "just a movie".  But, I certainly see some validity in both arguments above, and box office returns from Friday were booming.  So, I'd be interested in what other people think the impact will be... if any.

No, not really.... Why would any one listen to a wackyo liberal like him...

[agcatter]

....or alienate the hell out of swing voters.

[ATFFL]

CNN sent a liberal to review it, and he said he came out feeling sympathy for the President because the movie was so unabashedly biased.

[Platypus]

I think it will have influence in terms of motivation democrats to vote, more then picking up swing voters. And turnout is key, ESPECIALLY for the Democrats.

[Blue Rectangle]

I considered starting a topic titled “Is Moore actually helping Bush?”

The argument has three main points:
1.  Moore has received quite a lot of bad press from the mainstream media.  NBC, CBS and ABC nightly news have all ran stories questioning Moore’s “facts” and have come to the conclusion that Moore is not a journalist and the Fahrenheit is definitely not a documentary.  Read George Stephanopoulos’ interview for an example of the scepticism Moore is meeting in the normally liberal media
2.  Fahrenheit is likely to draw mostly partisans.  After the advance press on the film, there are not going to be many swing voters that believe the movie is going to educate them on this issue.  The expectation that voters will be persuaded by this obviously biased movie is a pipe dream for Democrats.
3.  Bush has a 15-point lead over Kerry on terrorism.  The race would not even be close if it wasn’t for the fact that terror is the number three issue, behind the economy and Iraq.  Any increased awareness of 9/11 is likely to help Bush overall, even if his lead on the issue slips.  This is a variation of the “there’s no such thing as bad publicity” concept.  There is a reason that Kerry has been reluctant to mention terrorism or 9/11 in any way so far: he knows that tactic could backfire in a big way.

Recall the flap over Rice’s 9/11 commission testimony?  That was another issue on which Kerry hoped to score points.  It failed.  Rice looked good, the commission looked partisan, Kerry looked like an opportunist, and Bush was cleared in the public mind of any wrongdoing.
I think this film will have a similar effect: a small gain for Bush that more than counters any gain Kerry could hope to make.

As far as boosting turnout, the key to Democratic turnout is not among the urban elite and the intelligencia.  The key is in turnout of low income minorities--the people not targeted by this movie.

[Nation]

I'm going to see Fahrenheit 9/11 tonight (for entertainment purposes, my conservative friends). You must remember, I don't HATE anyone in politics, but I am a Kerry supporter.

I know how Moore twists the facts, so I'm planning on doing a  mini-review for my Atlas comrades, and some fact-checking.

Movie starts in an hour. See ya

[Akno21]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=502&e=4&u=/ap/20040627/ap_on_en_mo/fahrenheit_911

Rallying the base won't hurt, as this movie is doing. It is in the news a lot, and a bad review is better than no review, when it comes to movies and books.

[??????????]

It's so popular it's only showing on 425 screens nationwide. lol

[Akno21]

It's so popular it's only showing on 425 screens nationwide. lol

It's a Documentary/Movie, and the most popular documentary ever. And yet, it is beating movies being shown on 4x as many screens. So I'd say it is pretty popular. It is the weekend's #1 film! It's in the same category as Harry Potter, LOTR, and Spiderman in that sense.  

[??????????]

It's so popular it's only showing on 425 screens nationwide. lol

It's a Documentary/Movie, and the most popular documentary ever. And yet, it is beating movies being shown on 4x as many screens. So I'd say it is pretty popular. It is the weekend's #1 film! It's in the same category as Harry Potter, LOTR, and Spiderman in that sense.  

Documentarys are based on fact.

You can call this one a Lieumentary if you wish and I won't scream.

[Akno21]

It's so popular it's only showing on 425 screens nationwide. lol

It's a Documentary/Movie, and the most popular documentary ever. And yet, it is beating movies being shown on 4x as many screens. So I'd say it is pretty popular. It is the weekend's #1 film! It's in the same category as Harry Potter, LOTR, and Spiderman in that sense.  

Documentarys are based on fact.

You can call this one a Lieumentary if you wish and I won't scream.

Yes, this one is BASED on fact. I will not deny some of his "facts" are questionable. But it is the big picture which is important, and is explained well in the movie/documentary.

[??????????]

It's so popular it's only showing on 425 screens nationwide. lol

It's a Documentary/Movie, and the most popular documentary ever. And yet, it is beating movies being shown on 4x as many screens. So I'd say it is pretty popular. It is the weekend's #1 film! It's in the same category as Harry Potter, LOTR, and Spiderman in that sense.  

Documentarys are based on fact.

You can call this one a Lieumentary if you wish and I won't scream.

Yes, this one is BASED on fact. I will not deny some of his "facts" are questionable. But it is the big picture which is important, and is explained well in the movie/documentary.

Facts which are heavily cut and cropped. They had his number pegged on Good Day live Friday. All he did is stutter, "It's not true!!!!"

[Akno21]

It's so popular it's only showing on 425 screens nationwide. lol

It's a Documentary/Movie, and the most popular documentary ever. And yet, it is beating movies being shown on 4x as many screens. So I'd say it is pretty popular. It is the weekend's #1 film! It's in the same category as Harry Potter, LOTR, and Spiderman in that sense.  

Documentarys are based on fact.

You can call this one a Lieumentary if you wish and I won't scream.

Yes, this one is BASED on fact. I will not deny some of his "facts" are questionable. But it is the big picture which is important, and is explained well in the movie/documentary.

Facts which are heavily cut and cropped. They had his number pegged on Good Day live Friday. All he did is stutter, "It's not true!!!!"

Specifcally, where did he lie?

[millwx]

It's so popular it's only showing on 425 screens nationwide. lol

Actually, it's showing at exactly 868 theaters.  That is the most ever for a documentary.  But, as you well point out, calling it a "documentary" at all is subjective (to say the least).

Really, that, and the box office receipts from Friday are the only reason I started this post.  I mean, if no one's seeing this film, then who cares?!?!?!?  There'd be no debate whatsoever on this topic.  Moore would look like a silly little crackpot (I'm not saying he still doesn't in the eyes of many), touting a silly little film.  But it not only beat out "White Chicks" (which, as ridiculous as that movie looks, is highly touted and expected to be one of the better draws this summer), it beat it out by a wide margin (20%).  Considering that F9/11 was playing at 1/3rd the number of theaters, I'd bet many theaters were sold out... a rarity these days.

FWIW, I've not seen it, don't know if I care to.  I might at some point, for it's entertainment value (I did see the trailer, and watching John Ashcroft sing is worth the price of admission ).

[??????????]

Akno,

His scene with the senators was edited. The senator who was in the shot said so himself.

[© tweed]

I doubt it will make much impact.

[Beet]

Who was it who said "a week is a long time in politics"

If the polls stay anywhere outside of landslide proportions, the election will be decided based on what happens in October 2004, that and the GOTV.

[mddem2004]

I doubt Moore's movie will have any major impact. Moore, like anyone trying (Left or Right) to make a political point will only tell you the half of the story they want you to hear to make their point. That shouldn't shock anyone on the Right. That should be expected in politics. This is a documentary, stating a politcal point of view, based on (some of) the facts. Are all the facts presented to make a truly informed position.....NO. Its not meant to....its politics.

That said, the film in terms of effecting the election probably will be contained to a) motivating further those already motivated against Bush and b) those who see it that may not really have a strong feeling for or against Bush now.....particularly young folks not all that politically active. That can't help Bush but it will probably be minimal. BUT....every single vote will be crucial in this election.

The toughest part for Bush though, and admittedly i've only seen the previews online/on air.....will be those parts of the film showing Bush as Bush (he can't deny he's said those things) even if taken out of context. That can only raise his negatives.....

[MarkDel]

The impact of this movie will be essentially ZERO.

This movie will definitely fire up the left wing, Anti-American Americans (god I never thought I'd write that sentence but that's what it's come to with the Left) but they were going to vote for Kerry anyways.

The truth about Michael Moore is that for every vote he costs Bush with stuff like this movie, he also pushes someone in the center away from the Democratic Party. If you're a moderate, independent voter and have legitimate disgreement with certain Bush policies, and you are considering voting Democratic, people like Moore are like having a large bucket of ice cold water poured on your head. You then wake up and say, "Any party that endorses or tolerates a Michael Moore is not good for this country..." And then you either vote for Bush, or fail to vote at all.

SO overall, the Michael Moore factor is about a "push" and may even favor Bush a little.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Who was it who said "a week is a long time in politics"

Harold Wilson

[??????????]

The impact of this movie will be essentially ZERO.

This movie will definitely fire up the left wing, Anti-American Americans (god I never thought I'd write that sentence but that's what it's come to with the Left) but they were going to vote for Kerry anyways.

The truth about Michael Moore is that for every vote he costs Bush with stuff like this movie, he also pushes someone in the center away from the Democratic Party. If you're a moderate, independent voter and have legitimate disgreement with certain Bush policies, and you are considering voting Democratic, people like Moore are like having a large bucket of ice cold water poured on your head. You then wake up and say, "Any party that endorses or tolerates a Michael Moore is not good for this country..." And then you either vote for Bush, or fail to vote at all.

SO overall, the Michael Moore factor is about a "push" and may even favor Bush a little.

www.MichaelMoorehatesAmerica.com

[Blue Rectangle]

From Gwen Ifill (on Meet the Press):

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It's not just the Right questioning Moore's patriotism...
and:

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I've yet to hear a journalist in the major media accept Moore's work as "fact" or his movie as a "documentary".
as far as the movie's impact:

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[Nation]

I saw the movie, was not impressed. "Bowling for Columbine" was a much more clever and thought-provoking endeavor then Moore's "Fahrenheit 9/11" claptrap turned out to be (for me, at least)

The first half of the movie was nothing more than speculation about why Bush's family is so connected with the Saudis, and questioned Bush's appointments to specific positions, some involving the Saudis in some way. Well duh, when you're president of course you're going to appoint close friends to powerful positions. Any president would take advantage of this.

The movie brought in what looked to be one "expert" who said that flying the Bin Laden family out of the country after 9/11 was a big mistake (it certainly wasn't something that Republicans and Democrats will unite over, saying that it was a glorious move by Bush) but it's nothing to get impeached over.

As I said, the first half of the movie was speculation, and nothing more. Moore also did something he loved to do, taking quotes out of context, in writing and with videotape.

The second half of the movie was psychologically brilliant -- emotionally charged drivel I'd call it, because that's what it did, it played to your emotions. No matter who you're voting for, you WILL sympathize towards the emotional moments in the movie with the mother who lost her son in Iraq. The one legitimate question the movie asks is "is the conflict in iraq worth losing hundreds and hundreds of soldiers over?" A question that EVERYONE already has an answer to.

I highly doubt this movie will make any sort of impact -- if it somehow manages to actually change the minds of "swing" voters, the number will be statistically insignificant.

It will fade out in several weeks just like Richard Clarke's book did.

[??????????]

Is the war worth it in context to 3,000 dead on a September morning? Have we forgotten?