TX-Gov: ChismStrat/Blueprint (D): Abbott + 19

[2016]

https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1536451219115257856

Looks like Uvalde might have helped Abbott not hurt him!

[2016]

Might be an outlier, but this race was never competitive to begin with. After his incredible 2018 senate campaign, Beto made a fool of himself.

Texas really was never as competitive as it seemed like I would argue as keep in mind in 2016 Trump did around 11 points better in Texas than he did in the country and Cruz in 2018 overperformed the National House PV by 11 points as well. In 2020 Trump did 10 points better in Texas than he did in the country and Cornyn overperformed the National House PV by around 12.5 points .

Given Abbott's personality is more similar to Cornyn than Trump/Cruz a 19 point win would mean around a R+6.5 year but given the fact that Democrats are far more reliant on low propensity votes in Texas than they are nationally a R+5-5.5 year could also produce such a win.

Stetwide election result from 2018 somewhat beg differ, the other races beyond governor were much closer. It's still a Republican-leaning state for sure, though it has significantly moved towards light-red territory. Biden also performed well compared to previous Democrats in 2020. However, I think it will take another two or three cycles to be really winnable for the Democrats.

If Beto couldn't win against one of the most unpopular Senators in 2018 in Ted Cruz during an 8.5 Democratic Wave Year where they won 40 House Seats, had a Net Gain of 5-6 Governorships, etc. what makes you to believe O'Rourke can beat Abbott.

Yes, this Poll might be a bit too rosy for Abbott but he won't lose.

[2016]

Why do Rs keep comparing 2018/22 we didn't win 80M votes, in 2018 it's as simple as that it doesn't matter if it's 8.5 or 3.1 D yr the Rs won the GCB in 2014 by 5 pts and haven't won the GCB ever since Partisan trends don't matter that much in Midterms as they do in Prez Elections I look at the total vote not if it's an 8.5 D yr or 3.1 Hogan and SUNUNU won in 2018 and we won OH And WV but the Rs maintained the Senate in that Environment, we overperformed in the H right now we are gonna overperform in the S and Gov Crist, Ryan and Beasley are winning Rs don't have a monopoly on red states Biden helped Obama win red states in 2008/12

The only red state that is Safe is TX because of Beto, Franken is 3 pts behind Grassley, Ryan is ahead 44/41, Beasley is ahead 44/40 and Crist is ahead 51/49 and if Crist wins Demings will win I am confident of that.

If Franken wins I am sure DEJEAR will beat Reynolds there is Reynolds fatigue because she has been in office since 2010, DEJEAR, Demings and Beasley are gorgeous just like Whitmer

We won IN Sen and FL in 2012 and Obama won by just 4 pts too, not 8

The Wildcard is AK and UT McMillan is a Conservative and there is a 3 way split it AK Sen and H who knows if Gross or Begich can beat Palin

You will all LOSE, LOSE, LOSE!!!