TX-Gov: ChismStrat/Blueprint (D): Abbott + 19
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  TX-Gov: ChismStrat/Blueprint (D): Abbott + 19
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Author Topic: TX-Gov: ChismStrat/Blueprint (D): Abbott + 19  (Read 1295 times)
2016
Junior Chimp
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« on: June 13, 2022, 03:55:56 PM »



Looks like Uvalde might have helped Abbott not hurt him!
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #1 on: June 13, 2022, 04:01:15 PM »

Beto is not a serious candidate since his presidential run.
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« Reply #2 on: June 13, 2022, 04:02:07 PM »
« Edited: June 13, 2022, 05:16:10 PM by Old School Republican »

It will be glorious to see Beto be destroyed and Texas Democrats set back to Pre Trump level support
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #3 on: June 13, 2022, 04:14:24 PM »

Sounds about right. I think Abbott's margin of victory will be between his 2014 and 2018 margins. Despite (or more likely because of ) his moral depravity, he's fairly popular in Texas.
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« Reply #4 on: June 13, 2022, 05:25:17 PM »

No way is it going to be this lopsided, though the worst Governor in the country will still sadly win easily.
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Senator Incitatus
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« Reply #5 on: June 13, 2022, 05:31:30 PM »

Seems about right for a Democratic pollster. O'Rourke is a total joke.
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Unelectable Bystander
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« Reply #6 on: June 13, 2022, 05:33:41 PM »

If you’ve made an idiotic comment about Texas this cycle, it’s a good time to call yourself out
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #7 on: June 13, 2022, 05:53:42 PM »

But I thought Beta was beloved in Texas for his heroic stance of banning AR-15's?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: June 13, 2022, 06:23:56 PM »

Biden doesn't even go to the border so this is over anyways
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TodayJunior
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« Reply #9 on: June 13, 2022, 08:16:52 PM »

13-15% margin at the absolute worst. Dems should clear 40% at least. This isn’t Bush country anymore.
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« Reply #10 on: June 13, 2022, 09:17:57 PM »

13-15% margin at the absolute worst. Dems should clear 40% at least. This isn’t Bush country anymore.

Wasn’t this just recently 6-8 points at the absolute worst?
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Horus
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« Reply #11 on: June 13, 2022, 09:28:58 PM »
« Edited: June 13, 2022, 09:33:26 PM by Horus »

Beto is an embarrassing candidate and his antics post Uvalde were in extremely bad taste. What makes it even funnier is he seems to genuinely believe he can win. One of the Castros would do more respectably, but they actually care about their future careers and don't want to be a sacrificial lamb.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #12 on: June 14, 2022, 01:51:59 AM »

Beto is an embarrassing candidate and his antics post Uvalde were in extremely bad taste. What makes it even funnier is he seems to genuinely believe he can win. One of the Castros would do more respectably, but they actually care about their future careers and don't want to be a sacrificial lamb.

Don't forget TX is a heavy oil state and gas prices are inflated so that's also contributing to Beto collapse
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #13 on: June 14, 2022, 08:30:22 AM »

Safe R -> Safe R

Abbott is for sure winning by double digits, although he deserves losing as he's one of the worst govs.
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TodayJunior
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« Reply #14 on: June 14, 2022, 10:04:55 AM »

13-15% margin at the absolute worst. Dems should clear 40% at least. This isn’t Bush country anymore.

Wasn’t this just recently 6-8 points at the absolute worst?
well, thinking again, the closeness of Texas in the last few cycles may have been the outlier. I guess we'll just have to see in November. Texas won't be in play, that's for sure.
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Umengus
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« Reply #15 on: June 14, 2022, 10:21:33 AM »

Sounds about right. I think Abbott's margin of victory will be between his 2014 and 2018 margins. Despite (or more likely because of ) his moral depravity, he's fairly popular in Texas.

Beto ? Wink
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #16 on: June 14, 2022, 01:32:10 PM »

Very telling that this same poll only finds Trump ahead of Biden by 6 points in a hypothetical 2024 rematch (44-38), which really contradicts the posters who are implying that this poll was designed to favor Republicans. Again, a case can be made that the Trump years were an unusual drag on the TX GOP and that Trump himself was an atrocious candidate for the state who underperformed rather substantially in a way other Republicans (including DeSantis) wouldn’t. While the state will likely still drift into Battleground status in the medium term, the popular (and at times smug) comparison between "GA 2016" and TX 2020/today was extremely superficial and often resembled wishful thinking. There was no room for any impactful pro-R countertrend in GA after 2016 the way there is in South TX/the RGV/metro parts with a high concentration of Latino voters in TX, and there’s nothing like the lopsided Atlanta-based migration of core Democratic groups (esp. AA voters) going on in TX (nor does any metro in TX hold the same power over the entire state that Atlanta holds over GA). Obviously many Democrats are migrating to TX, but if the pool of migrants is just way more diverse overall and consisting of a higher share of R-leaning and swing voters, it’s not going to be nearly as beneficial to the party. This is not even to mention that we’re dealing with entirely different partisan baselines in both states.

I maintain that MN is a closer analogy to TX than GA (or AZ) in that both MN and TX are states which should be competitive in major wave elections and cannot be taken for granted by the dominant parties, but which are not going to flip in any close-ish national election in the foreseeable future (although I do think MN is closer to flipping in a "neutral" year than TX is in spite of the 2020 trend in MN).
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #17 on: June 14, 2022, 01:53:52 PM »

Beto is a lousy candidate that's why he is losing by 20 pts but Rs are down 23 in MI too
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President Johnson
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« Reply #18 on: June 14, 2022, 02:08:38 PM »

Might be an outlier, but this race was never competitive to begin with. After his incredible 2018 senate campaign, Beto made a fool of himself.
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« Reply #19 on: June 14, 2022, 02:17:29 PM »

Might be an outlier, but this race was never competitive to begin with. After his incredible 2018 senate campaign, Beto made a fool of himself.

Texas really was never as competitive as it seemed like I would argue as keep in mind in 2016 Trump did around 11 points better in Texas than he did in the country and Cruz in 2018 overperformed the National House PV by 11 points as well. In 2020 Trump did 10 points better in Texas than he did in the country and Cornyn overperformed the National House PV by around 12.5 points .

Given Abbott's personality is more similar to Cornyn than Trump/Cruz a 19 point win would mean around a R+6.5 year but given the fact that Democrats are far more reliant on low propensity votes in Texas than they are nationally a R+5-5.5 year could also produce such a win.


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President Johnson
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« Reply #20 on: June 14, 2022, 02:20:38 PM »

Might be an outlier, but this race was never competitive to begin with. After his incredible 2018 senate campaign, Beto made a fool of himself.

Texas really was never as competitive as it seemed like I would argue as keep in mind in 2016 Trump did around 11 points better in Texas than he did in the country and Cruz in 2018 overperformed the National House PV by 11 points as well. In 2020 Trump did 10 points better in Texas than he did in the country and Cornyn overperformed the National House PV by around 12.5 points .

Given Abbott's personality is more similar to Cornyn than Trump/Cruz a 19 point win would mean around a R+6.5 year but given the fact that Democrats are far more reliant on low propensity votes in Texas than they are nationally a R+5-5.5 year could also produce such a win.




Stetwide election result from 2018 somewhat beg differ, the other races beyond governor were much closer. It's still a Republican-leaning state for sure, though it has significantly moved towards light-red territory. Biden also performed well compared to previous Democrats in 2020. However, I think it will take another two or three cycles to be really winnable for the Democrats.
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« Reply #21 on: June 14, 2022, 02:24:16 PM »

Might be an outlier, but this race was never competitive to begin with. After his incredible 2018 senate campaign, Beto made a fool of himself.

Texas really was never as competitive as it seemed like I would argue as keep in mind in 2016 Trump did around 11 points better in Texas than he did in the country and Cruz in 2018 overperformed the National House PV by 11 points as well. In 2020 Trump did 10 points better in Texas than he did in the country and Cornyn overperformed the National House PV by around 12.5 points .

Given Abbott's personality is more similar to Cornyn than Trump/Cruz a 19 point win would mean around a R+6.5 year but given the fact that Democrats are far more reliant on low propensity votes in Texas than they are nationally a R+5-5.5 year could also produce such a win.




Stetwide election result from 2018 somewhat beg differ, the other races beyond governor were much closer. It's still a Republican-leaning state for sure, though it has significantly moved towards light-red territory. Biden also performed well compared to previous Democrats in 2020. However, I think it will take another two or three cycles to be really winnable for the Democrats.


Well 2018 was also a +8.5 year for the Dems nationally which is what made it deceptively close and Beto overrated as he relatively did not really overperform Hillary in Texas. In today's day and age I would say relative margin matters more than overall when judging how a state would vote in different elections(except a state like Georgia).

In 2020 Texas voted 10-12.5 more Republican than the nation and given how Texas Democrats are reliant on low propensity voters who usually dont turn out in same party midterms that number could be higher in 2022.
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2016
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #22 on: June 15, 2022, 01:30:00 PM »

Might be an outlier, but this race was never competitive to begin with. After his incredible 2018 senate campaign, Beto made a fool of himself.

Texas really was never as competitive as it seemed like I would argue as keep in mind in 2016 Trump did around 11 points better in Texas than he did in the country and Cruz in 2018 overperformed the National House PV by 11 points as well. In 2020 Trump did 10 points better in Texas than he did in the country and Cornyn overperformed the National House PV by around 12.5 points .

Given Abbott's personality is more similar to Cornyn than Trump/Cruz a 19 point win would mean around a R+6.5 year but given the fact that Democrats are far more reliant on low propensity votes in Texas than they are nationally a R+5-5.5 year could also produce such a win.




Stetwide election result from 2018 somewhat beg differ, the other races beyond governor were much closer. It's still a Republican-leaning state for sure, though it has significantly moved towards light-red territory. Biden also performed well compared to previous Democrats in 2020. However, I think it will take another two or three cycles to be really winnable for the Democrats.
If Beto couldn't win against one of the most unpopular Senators in 2018 in Ted Cruz during an 8.5 Democratic Wave Year where they won 40 House Seats, had a Net Gain of 5-6 Governorships, etc. what makes you to believe O'Rourke can beat Abbott.

Yes, this Poll might be a bit too rosy for Abbott but he won't lose.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #23 on: June 15, 2022, 02:30:57 PM »
« Edited: June 15, 2022, 02:38:52 PM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

Why do Rs keep comparing 2018/22 we didn't win 80M votes, in 2018 it's as simple as that it doesn't matter if it's 8.5 or 3.1 D yr the Rs won the GCB in 2014 by 5 pts and haven't won the GCB ever since Partisan trends don't matter that much in Midterms as they do in Prez Elections I look at the total vote not if it's an 8.5 D yr or 3.1 Hogan and SUNUNU won in 2018 and we won OH And WV but the Rs maintained the Senate in that Environment, we overperformed in the H right now we are gonna overperform in the S and Gov Crist, Ryan and Beasley are winning Rs don't have a monopoly on red states Biden helped Obama win red states in 2008/12

The only red state that is Safe is TX because of Beto, Franken is 3 pts behind Grassley, Ryan is ahead 44/41, Beasley is ahead 44/40 and Crist is ahead 51/49 and if Crist wins Demings will win I am confident of that.

If Franken wins I am sure DEJEAR will beat Reynolds there is Reynolds fatigue because she has been in office since 2010, DEJEAR, Demings and Beasley are gorgeous just like Whitmer

We won IN Sen and FL in 2012 and Obama won by just 4 pts too, not 8

The Wildcard is AK and UT McMillan is a Conservative and there is a 3 way split it AK Sen and H who knows if Gross or Begich can beat Palin
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2016
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #24 on: June 15, 2022, 03:39:54 PM »

Why do Rs keep comparing 2018/22 we didn't win 80M votes, in 2018 it's as simple as that it doesn't matter if it's 8.5 or 3.1 D yr the Rs won the GCB in 2014 by 5 pts and haven't won the GCB ever since Partisan trends don't matter that much in Midterms as they do in Prez Elections I look at the total vote not if it's an 8.5 D yr or 3.1 Hogan and SUNUNU won in 2018 and we won OH And WV but the Rs maintained the Senate in that Environment, we overperformed in the H right now we are gonna overperform in the S and Gov Crist, Ryan and Beasley are winning Rs don't have a monopoly on red states Biden helped Obama win red states in 2008/12

The only red state that is Safe is TX because of Beto, Franken is 3 pts behind Grassley, Ryan is ahead 44/41, Beasley is ahead 44/40 and Crist is ahead 51/49 and if Crist wins Demings will win I am confident of that.

If Franken wins I am sure DEJEAR will beat Reynolds there is Reynolds fatigue because she has been in office since 2010, DEJEAR, Demings and Beasley are gorgeous just like Whitmer

We won IN Sen and FL in 2012 and Obama won by just 4 pts too, not 8

The Wildcard is AK and UT McMillan is a Conservative and there is a 3 way split it AK Sen and H who knows if Gross or Begich can beat Palin
You will all LOSE, LOSE, LOSE!!!
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